'There is no more of a legal basis for Russia to insist on regaining part of Ukraine than there is for Germany to demand the return of Alsace or Lorraine from France or to claim a right to defend ethnic Germans living in Czechia, Austria or Poland'
thehill.com/opinion/nation…
'Russian deployment near Ukraine’s border is not defensive and threatens aggression. Ukraine poses no military threat to Russia; Putin claims, falsely, that Kyiv is preparing an invasion of … its own territory, the Russian-occupied Donbas region.'
'The situation is really quite simple: Russia invaded Ukraine in 2014, annexed part of it, occupies another part through proxies — and now threatens further aggression against the remainder of the country'
thehill.com/opinion/nation…
'Russia is a poor country, in truth, with a dysfunctional economy and an ossifying kleptocracy. Russian GDP is well under one-tenth that of the U.S. or Europe [...]. The West can afford to replace even expensive weapons systems lost in combat; Russia cannot. Putin knows that.'
'Putin’s belief that NATO will not fight such a war to defend Ukraine is critical to his willingness to contemplate aggression. Replacing that belief with a conviction that NATO indeed would fight is the key to deterring him.'
thehill.com/opinion/nation…

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More from @olgatokariuk

8 Dec
'If for Putin the collapse of the USSR is the biggest geopolitical catastrophe of the 20th century, for Ukrainians it is our greatest achievement', Leontiy Sanduliak, co-author of Ukraine's declaration of independence, tells me. 30y ago Belovezha accords put an end to the USSR:🧵
Sanduliak, now 84, was one of those who played a crucial role in the collapse of the Soviet Union. He was not a dissident or a human rights activist, but a doctor of medical sciences, a university professor in the western city of Chernivtsi and member of the Communist Party
Sanduliak’s opposition to the USSR was rooted in environmental issues. The Chernobyl nuclear catastrophe in April 1986 was one of the main events that made him question the regime. Another one was a strange disease in 1988, when children in Chernivtsi started losing their hair
Read 15 tweets
4 Dec
'A major war in Ukraine would plunge the whole of Europe into crisis. The sudden appearance of between three and five million Ukrainian refugees fleeing the Russian invasion would be just one of many major concerns facing European society' @oleksiireznikov atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainea…
'The EU relies heavily on food imports including grain. A major war would seriously disrupt and possibly prevent entirely many imports from both Ukraine and Russia, creating a whole range of food security problems for the entire continent.'
'Nobody in Ukraine underestimates the seriousness of the situation,but we lived with the possibility of a major escalation for many years.Ukrainians know what we will do if confronted by a full-scale Russian invasion.We will fight. We will defend our land'
atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainea…
Read 5 tweets
26 Nov
Ukraine's president Zelenskyi says there is a risk Russia will further escalate its aggression against Ukraine. While he views the situation at Ru-Ukr border as 'not worse than in spring', he said Russia dangerously escalated its rhetoric against Ukraine
Zelenskyi said that, contrary to Russian claims, Ukraine is not planning any offensive in Donbas, is carefully avoiding provocations and will not intentionally risk the lives of its soldiers. 'Ukraine has never attacked Russia', he added
Zelenskyi also pushed back at Moscow allegations that NATO is expanding its presence in Ukraine and Russia sees it as a threat. 'There was no NATO support to Ukraine in 2014, but it didn't stop Russia from invading'
Read 4 tweets
26 Nov
⚡️ Russia may be preparing a coup in Ukraine on December 1 or 2 - president Zelenskyi said, quoting intelligence agencies reports. He said he has recordings of conversations between Ukrainian and Russian nationals where they discuss a possible support by oligarch Rinat Akhmetov
‘We have some information from [intelligence] agencies, we even have sound recordings of representatives of Ukraine, with, so to speak, representatives of Russia, who discuss the involvement of Rinat Akhmetov in a coup in Ukraine, and that one billion dollars will be needed’
Zelenskyi said that Akhmetov's 'inner circle' is trying to drag him into it: ‘I think he is being dragged into a war against the Ukrainian state. I believe that would be his big mistake because you cannot fight against your own people, against the president elected by Ukr people’
Read 7 tweets
24 Nov
Several thousand people protested in Kyiv today against Covid vaccination and restrictions for unvaccinated people. They also demanded the release of Ostap Stakhiv, one of the leaders of anti-vaccination movement in Ukraine, who was arrested last week 🏮
📷 @herKrieger
Stakhiv was arrested in Lviv last week. He faces from 5 to 10 years on charges of undermining public health and plotting to overthrow the constitutional order. Ukrainian special services SBU earlier accused him of having links to Russia.He said his arrest is politically motivated
Stakhiv is one of the most prominent figures in Ukrainian anti-vaccination movement. He had more than 90k followers on his Facebook page, which was recently taken down due to numerous reports of disinformation shared there. He still has 65k subscribers on YouTube, 25k on Telegram
Read 9 tweets
24 Nov
Ukraine launched a special operation, involving increased air and land patrols, construction of checkpoints at its border with Belarus to protect it in case of potential redirection of migrant flows, the State border guard service said today dpsu.gov.ua/ua/news/U-ramk…
Ukraine's border with Belarus is 1084 km long, more than twice as long as Belarus-Poland border, and is mostly not physically protected by barriers or wire. However a big part of the border is inaccessible for crossing because it's located in areas covered by swamps and rivers
About 270 km of Ukraine-Belarus border are particularly exposed,spokesman of Ukraine's interior ministry told me last week. 'These are areas connected to the border by roads, where people can be brought to in an organized manner. The most vulnerable ones are in the Volyn region..
Read 6 tweets

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