Real world: "AI" (i.e., ML) defeats the most skilled human beings at chess and Go.
Web3 world: "play to earn" "nations" like Axie Infinity pit humans against one another in gameplay that is far simpler than chess or Go.
This cannot be sustainable or good for actual persons.
I'm trying to give "creator economies" and other beneficial implementations of blockchain the benefit of the doubt, but the most celebrated examples so far still look like Ponzi schemes to me.
I mean, I get that gaming is big business, people find it diverting and fun, and there is money to be made. But that's true of casinos as well. Like casinos, gaming is parasitic on actual common-wealth-generating economies.
Thesis: any activity (casinos, gaming) that does not involve heart-soul-mind-strength engagement in the created world is a net drain on the common wealth, at best a luxury consumption good. Association football is a genuine contribution to human flourishing. FIFA 22 is not.
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Two caveats: first, I suspect I disagree with Abigail Shrier on some points, including the deep question of exactly what freedom is and entails.
Second, I tire of locutions like “the students of Princeton,” including an entire diverse institution by synecdoche. Even a commencement speaker doesn’t address the entire student body.
I follow, you presumably won't be surprised to learn, a very wide range of well-informed public health folks. They vary, however, in how "insider" they are institutionally.
And I can't help but notice that though I consider all of them super smart, as a rule the more "insider," the slower they've been to definitively say what accumulating evidence clearly shows is true (e.g., most egregiously, risks of outdoor transmission).
I think this reflects a complicated reality of being close to power. There are a range of factors that range from cynical to sympathetic, but all of which militate against forthrightness and honesty:
Okay, I have thought about this a bit more and would revise it slightly. (If journalism is the rough draft of history, Twitter is presumably Anne Lamott's, ahem, "crappy" rough draft.)
I regret the false precision of "50%." (The other numbers have more actual warrant in public-health practice.) Instead I should have said, "roughly half."
I also think "planning for" implies this is the only scenario worth engaging. That's not quite right. So—
If I were a pastor of the modal US congregation I would be asking how we will accomplish our mission if
our budget is cut by roughly half over the next 12 months
no gatherings of >100 are allowed for at least a year
gatherings of 10-50 can resume this summer in most localities
Thinking about that horrifying Verge piece (which is just the latest reporting on a phenomenon that's been going on, largely offshore, for the last decade or so), and its connection to the authority / vulnerability dynamic I wrote about in Strong & Weak:
There's a Law of Conservation of Vulnerability in every human system. Someone is going to bear the risk. For you to live in Withdrawal (no authority or risk), someone else has to exercise Control (authority without risk), AT THE COST of someone Suffering (risk without authority).
And the only way Control can be maintained at the expense of others' Suffering — is through violence (broadly understood = the violation of another's dignity).
If you're someone growing in celebrity, your first priority should be to build systems of unimpeachable independence and credibility that can hold you accountable. The problem is that almost no one who tastes celebrity makes this a priority.
And when credible allegations of misconduct come — as has happened in two cases in my circles this week — you are stuck. Even credible allegations can be false. But if you haven't built a system others can trust to fairly assess those allegations, how can we believe your denials?
This is the great tragedy of two generations' worth of impatience with institutions (which reached a peak with my GenX cohort). We neglected real institution-building and settled for celebrity power. But that is a house built on sand, and when it falls, how great is its fall.