Share this page!

Arieh Kovler Profile picture
Twitter logo
9 Dec, 6 tweets, 2 min read
No surprise here, was pretty clear which way the panel was leaning. Doubtless Trump will appeal.
This judgment is technical at points, but it's very clear when it needs to be. ImageImageImage
oof. Image
Good ideas, DC Circuit panel! Image
The conclusion. Strong stuff. ImageImage
It's in no way a sure thing that SCOTUS will grant cert. Gut feeling is they'll let the injunction expire. There just don't seem to be any compelling issues for them to hear in this one.

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
　

Keep Current with Arieh Kovler

Arieh Kovler Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @ariehkovler

Arieh Kovler Profile picture
8 Dec
Evolution is the process by which the fittest genes for the situation survive because they're the ones that get to reproduce themselves most efficiently. It doesn't have needs or desires. It just is.
Genes that help a creature survive until it reproduces are the genes that succeed. Speed, vision, size, venom, flight, intelligence... all of these can make a creature more likely to stay alive long enough to breed.
A species that cares for its young will be more likely to see those same kids breed, so evolution *sometimes* selects for stuff that happens after breeding. But mostly, there's no reason for genes for long post-reproductive life and good health in old age to be selected.
Read 10 tweets
Arieh Kovler Profile picture
7 Dec
Just be adding another voice to the choir, but the narrative that "Omicron is super mild" is premature, probably not true in the way most people understand it, and likely to be irrelevant anyway if it's highly infectious.

arieh.substack.com/p/is-omicron-m…
The idea that Omicron is a milder variant of Covid suits a lot of people, including the corona-sceptics who oppose any measures to control it.
But it's unfair to pin this one on antivaxxers. There are plenty of people who are hoping that Omicron is the fairytale ending to the pandemic, based on popular misunderstandings of evolution.
Read 7 tweets
Arieh Kovler Profile picture
3 Dec
Omicron in Israel: Latest case data from the Health Ministry. This is based on a small number of cases so care should be taken in drawing broad conclusions about infectivity etc. That said, here goes—
Israel has 7 confirmed Omicron cases. These are:

1. woman (vaxxed with 2xAZ) who returned from Malawi
2. Woman (vaxxed+boosted Pfizer) who returned from SA
3. Doctor (vaxxed+boosted Pfizer) who returned from medical conference in London
4-7 Four unvaxxed ppl who came from SA.
Another 27 Covid cases are "highly suspected" to have Omicron. I'm guessing that means S-gene dropout detected but no genetic typing done yet. Of these:

*5 were 'protected' (ie within the last 6 months they were vaxxed, boosted or recovered)
* 22 were not 'protected'
Read 5 tweets
Arieh Kovler Profile picture
1 Dec
"Omicron is super mild" is a narrative that's already bedded in, despite basically no evidence to support it — partly because of wishful thinking and partly due to misleading tweets like this one:
The facts:

* Omicron is still very new: most people who have it are still early in their disease course
* Omicron in SA is spreading in kids and young people first, so you wouldn't expect severe cases in these groups.
* Despite what @PoliticsForAlI claims, Covid hospitalizations are up in SA, and almost all of these are Omicron cases.
* A very high number of South Africans have already had Covid, so we might be seeing milder infection in reinfected people?

Image
Read 6 tweets
Arieh Kovler Profile picture
30 Nov
Israel's Channel 12 reported the Israeli Health Ministry's initial assessment of Omicron based on data given to them by the South African health authorities. This data is at best preliminary and I have a lot of questions. Sharing with appropriate caveats:
Per this report, 3 vax doses (2+booster) provide:
* 90% protection against Omicron infection vs 95% effectiveness against Delta
* Similar level of protection against severe disease in Omicron and Delta

THIS IS VERY PRELIMINARY DATA -- DON'T BE SURPRISED IF IT CHANGES
Per this report, unvaxxed people who have recovered from past infection with another Covid variant are *double* as likely to catch Omicron as they were to catch Delta.

THIS IS VERY PRELIMINARY DATA -- DON'T BE SURPRISED IF IT CHANGES
Read 8 tweets
Arieh Kovler Profile picture
26 Nov
Lin Wood (here shared by GhostEzra) suggests that the Q postings might be a Flynn-inspired CIA psy-op. Could we see a major faction of the movement we call "QAnon" rejecting Q? Image
A part of the online MAGA movement always claimed that the Q postings were a CIA op to distract and disempower "patriots" with false claims that there was a plan.
Meanwhile, 'old' QAnon influencers are losing ground. This post denouncing Lin on WTM is filled with comments defending him (or saying the whole argument is staged, of course) ImageImage
Read 4 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

Like this author's thread?

Get emails when @ariehkovler has new unrolls!

Check out other threads from @ariehkovler!

Read all threads by @ariehkovler

:(