Weekly French Covid Thread
A somewhat encouraging week. The 5th (Delta) wave of the pandemic is still rising but less rapidly. The peak may be reached next week. However…the Omicron variant has yet to hit France in a big way. It’s coming. It’s already surging in the UK. 1/12
A somewhat encouraging week. The 5th (Delta) wave of the pandemic is still rising but less rapidly. The peak may be reached next week. However…the Omicron variant has yet to hit France in a big way. It’s coming. It’s already surging in the UK. 1/12
New cases rose this week to 48,248 a day, up 24%, after 52% last week. The incidence rate (tdi) - 470 cases per 100,000/7 days – rose by 31.6%, compared to a weekly rate of 60% ten days ago. See graph by @nicolasberrod on the rise/fall of the tdi in recent months/weeks. 2/12
The signs that the Delta wave is running out of steam explain why the govt rejected tough new measures – early school closures, enforced home working – last Monday. Discos/clubs will be closed for 4 weeks from today. Three days a week home working is “recommended”. 3/12
Prof Flahault of Geneva Uni says the Delta wave may flatten by the end of next week. He warns it may be a plateau rather than a peak. If this winter wave follows last year’s, it SHOULD fall fast (until Omicron gets here). To compare winter waves look again at graph below. 4/12
What of Omicron? Studies in SA/UK/USA suggest it doubles every 2 -3 days but MAY be milder. It will sweep away Delta. Will that be a good thing (reducing deaths/acute sickness) or a bad (bringing hosps to their knees?). For more info see chart by the health writer Eric Topol 5/12
In France only 59 Omicron cases have been identified, compared to 12 a week ago. But France is still very ill-equipped for variant-spotting compared to Britain. The real figure is almost certainly higher. 6/12
Before this week’s stats, here is a story for anti-vaxxers. A 57 yrs old woman died of C19 in a Paris area hospital last week. She had a fake vax certificate bought from a doctor (yes). If the hosp had known she was unvaxxed, she might have lived. 7/12
leparisien.fr/societe/sante/…
leparisien.fr/societe/sante/…
This week’s stats:
There were 55,339 cases yesterday – bringing the running average to 48,248. Many of these cases are among primary age children and mostly v mild. Hence the thought given by govt– but rejected – to advancing school hols from next weekend. 8/12
There were 55,339 cases yesterday – bringing the running average to 48,248. Many of these cases are among primary age children and mostly v mild. Hence the thought given by govt– but rejected – to advancing school hols from next weekend. 8/12
Acute cases/deaths are rising but not dramatically. Patients in acute care were 2,489 last night, 21% up in a week. Deaths average 120 a day – up 44%. The graph below compares death rates over the last 3 years. Thanks to vaxxes, 2021 is more like 2019 (pre-C19) than 2020. 9/12
Over 13.7m people have now had a third jab – about 60% of those eligible. They are running at 550,000 a day - a record 781,329 yesterday. The govt target of 20m by Xmas should be reached. But France is playing catch up (once again) with the UK which is already over 20m. 10/12
Third-jab coverage of older people is high. For 1st and 2nd jabs it’s still comparatively low. Over 75’s are now 90.6% first jabbed, 89.1% 2nd jabbed and 69.6% third jabbed. For “all adults” the figures are 91.1%, 89.4% and 24.5%. For details see @nicolasberrod charts. 11/12
Hang in there.
12/12
12/12
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