Yes, I think some people think "Dems will lose" is an objective analysis & will say, "My job is to tell the truth & not advocate for Dems." Here's the "truth," as I see it. Dems have an uphill battle. There are also many things that make this year different than previous midterms
https://twitter.com/LarryGlickman/status/1469381304290582534
Dems have a structural disadvantage, to be sure. And typical midterm dynamics favor the out-party. But this disadvantage is not necessarily a force of gravity that applies equally every season. What factors are different this time around?
The relevant midterm seasons to use as points of comparison are w/in presidents' 1st terms. 2002 doesn't count. So looking at 1994, 2010, & 2018:
-Young voters fall off in midterms. Many didn't even know 2010 was happening. Now, tho, elections are more visible due to social media
-Young voters fall off in midterms. Many didn't even know 2010 was happening. Now, tho, elections are more visible due to social media
-Biden's agenda is also popular & doesn't appear to be losing steam w/ the public. By this point in 1993, 2009, & 2017, the presidents' agendas were generating backlash.
-GOP is making *no* economic argument against BBB, except that it "costs too much."
-GOP is making *no* economic argument against BBB, except that it "costs too much."
-In fact, the GOP is not making any economic argument at all. It's all culture war all the time. 1994 & 2010 were highly fueled by culture wars, but this was all wrapped up in a disingenuous economic bow. Not so this time around.
-There was just an insurrection. This hurts the GOP. It helps them to hide from it, just like what happened in VA
-The GOP is so radically right-wing at this point, that they will likely nominate a bunch of extremely radical far-rightists. These far-rightists will get media att'n
-The GOP is so radically right-wing at this point, that they will likely nominate a bunch of extremely radical far-rightists. These far-rightists will get media att'n
-GOP was HELPED in VA by cancelling their primary & preventing their own voters from having a say.
-That's not going to happen in every contest. GOP voters will nominate extremists. These extremists, due to social media, will get more att'n than in 2010
-That's not going to happen in every contest. GOP voters will nominate extremists. These extremists, due to social media, will get more att'n than in 2010
https://twitter.com/magi_jay/status/1456262092890066950
Am I pollyannish about 2022? No. Like I said, Dems have an uphill battle. But there's no reason--whether you're a Dem advocate or a neutral analyst--to treat any election as a foregone conclusion. And there is every reason to note many factors distinguish this season from others.
And really pay attention to how the extremists GOP voters nominate *could* spread negative attention to other races. The GA primary is set to be ugly & racist. And Stacey Abrams is a national figure. This could turn more eyes to elections everywhere.
Were people on social media en masse talking about the 2010 midterms in 12/09? Not really. That alone makes this year different. So if you *are* a Dem advocate, your job is to cement this election in the minds of everyone you know. To start registering voters + organizing *now*
Remember the GA Special in January? Dems weren't at *such* a disadvantage there than they will be overall in 2022, but they still weren't really favored to win. Perdue & Loeffler--esp. Loeffler--pissed off the Black church & paid the consequences.
https://twitter.com/magi_jay/status/1469680622939553798
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