The answer to “Why protect kids?” has to do with the risks of becoming infected. But some people, like @DLeonhardt, hide the risks of pediatric infection in adverse outcomes per 100K.
This is like building a haystack around a needle. The risk of poor outcomes all but disappears because it is buried under a preponderance of uninfected people.
nytimes.com/2021/12/10/bri…
This is what @DLeonhardt did today when he linked to the chart above. It makes Covid look less scary but only by including people who don’t have Covid in the risk estimates.
This overlooks what most parents want to know: “What happens if my kid is infected?”. State estimates vary but the risk of infection that results in hospitalization is around 1 in 100. aap.org/en/pages/2019-…
The irony is people like @DLeonhardt free-ride off the benefits of protection when they point to adverse outcomes at the population level. There are fewer adverse outcomes because there are fewer infections. There are fewer infections because there are protections.
The idea that this is a reason to lift those protections is like saying you don’t need your feet since you are already walking.
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I want to explain to you, @drlucymcbride, “what the heck happened”; the racist attacks & the Town Hall’s cancellation.
I want to explain in case you really don’t know.
I want to explain because we all fail.
I want to explain because the people you hurt deserve your apology. 🧵
I want to explain there is no “politely asking to join a panel” at the last minute; the event you intruded yourself on was months in the making and represented the work of many hands.
Do you see how affixing the word “politely” to “asking” doesn’t change that fact?
I want to explain that when a person like Dr. Salas-Ramirez is singled out for a “fight”, it’s not okay to respond as if you want to join that.
Do you see how your response helped draw battle lines?
We may have "opened the schools" but we still haven't made them accessible.
Yesterday my medically vulnerable son told me:
"Either I ruin my life avoiding Covid or Covid ruins my life. Either way I am suffering."
It is not fine. 🧵 theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/…
If there is “no widespread crisis” in the classrooms, it’s because there is no shared crisis. Covid has been framed as a problem for those with “pre-existing conditions.”
The result is that, across the US, but in isolation from each other, & out of view of the able-bodied, momentous conversations are taking place inside homes, over dinner & at the kitchen table.
This Long Covid study's reliance on serology derails its claim to have a control goup. What's more, it treats beliefs as *inventors of reality* while overlooking that typically beliefs are *reflections of* reality.
Laypeople call this "gaslighting".🧵 jamanetwork.com/journals/jamai…
1. An Out of Control Control Group
In this study, participants are given serology tests.
Participants are notified of the results and asked if they believe they had Covid, a question that just as well could be phrased as: Do you believe the test results?
Having built a haystack around school opening data, @ProfEmilyOster challenges readers to find the difference remote or in-person makes to community case rates. You can if you search, but first let's look at the haystack in which the difference is buried🧵 nature.com/articles/s4159…
The authors’ describe the study:
“The aim of this national, retrospective cohort study was to evaluate the impact of school mode and opening to in-person education on subsequent changes in community incidence of SARS-CoV-2.”
The school modes the authors consider are: traditional (in-person), virtual and hybrid. The authors conclude that learning modes make no statistically significant difference to incidence of Covid in a community.
It’s déjà vu all over again as @TracyBethHoeg does the same dumpster dive for Ontario’s “Adverse Events Following Immunization” (AEFI) reporting system that she did for VAERS. Naturally, there are problems. 🧵
As a brief reminder, Hoeg used the raw data of VAERS, despite its numerous disclaimers against doing so, allegedly to extract cases of myocarditis case investigators might have missed. It doesn’t go well. sciencebasedmedicine.org/peer-review-of…
Turning her sights on Ontario, Hoeg doubles down on the mistake; this time not even doing the slightest investigation into Ontario’s AEFI reports (and by “slightest investigation” I mean reading the report) but instead using its raw, unadjudicated data to establish case rates.
1. So the VE of 95% is in terms of hospitalizations only which is the only outcome he considers. Probably in terms of hospitalized or not, boosters might not move the needle much *if* boosters waned at a similar rate.
2. But not everyone thinks of the 3rd shot as a booster but more as the final shot in a 3-dose regimen. If that’s right, there wouldn’t be the same waning after 3 that we see after 2.
3. If the 3rd shot increased durability, then it reduces hospitalizations over whatever the time-frame to a actual booster (shot #4) would be. That adds up.
Faust also assumes myocarditis rates for 3rd shot = rates for 2nd shots which likely isn't true.