Thread by @LucyofL

So here's my promised thread on Covid & education that's been brewing for days....

It's been fuelled primarily by statements from various individuals in the the public eye, that essentially claim "education is untouchable; schools must operate as normal, come what may" 1/n

There's a few aspects to this to unpick - but let's start at the surface: It's absurd absolutism.

Imagine a future variant kills 1/3 (deemed by SAGE a plausible long-term scenario, and in line with MERS, a similar coronavirus).

Would we still be debating nativities? 2/n

I think not.

IMO, these frankly silly absolutist statements are counter-productive. They fuel polarisation. They fail to acknowledge future uncertainty and they are patronising. The unstated assumption is that we plebs aren't able to grasp nuance or complexity.
3/n

The argument also assumes that schools CAN be ringfenced. Of course the reality is they're part of the wider community, connecting 100s or 1000s of households... 4/n

In a low prevalence, stable state (eg. Spring '21), it may be feasible to keep a virus out by applying measures outside schools only, but once it has penetrated the gates..?
Large groups of unvaccinated bodies in close contact?
Can that be anything other than a petri dish? 5/n

Of course, you may decide to accept that it's going to spread through families - extended families, churches, community groups, families' workplaces etc...

I mean, all those connected adults have been offered a vaccine, right? So no big deal? 6/n

This is where it gets trickier.

IMO, the nub of the problem is that for any given group (whether it be uvaxxed primary kids, or boostered grandparents) there is a wide distribution of potential outcomes. 7/n

A few lucky ones: asymptomatic,
The majority: feel a bit 💩, but recover
A small % end up in hospital
A tiny % die (118 children to date)
A significant minority end up chronically unwell
(These %s vary by age, vax status & variant) 8/n

This variance is hugely problematic.
It leads to:
"Don't worry. Our kids had it; it was just the sniffles"
"Felt a bit rough, but no than flu..."
"I tested +ve. No big deal. We need to just accept & move on"
"I barely felt a thing. Dunno what the fuss is all about" 9/n

And it leads us to dismiss, discount or 'explain away' the exceptions:
"Well they had prior conditions"
(Which is frankly so offensive...I just won't go there)

10/n

The reality is:
(a) Adverse outcomes aren't rare (1 in 7 child infections lead to Long Covid, 20-30% of adults)
(b) Prior conditions are common, even in kids. They typically don't mean terminal illness, but asthma, type 1 diabetes etc. - Kids with 70+ years left to live
11/n

So the problem (in both unvaxxed kids and vaxxed adults) is that there's a genetic lottery in which a few people (some with known vulnerabilities, but some previously healthy) get really nasty outcomes.

12/n

But still, the kids are fine, right?

Well no. Even in kids there's a small % that do really badly

Like Jorja Halliday - whose story was particularly poignant having passed away the day her vaccine was due. (Sadly most don't make the headlines...)
bbc.co.uk/news/uk-englan… 13/n

And secondly, are kids' direct health outcomes all we should be concerned about? - Is it OK to let a kid bring home an illness that kills or maims a vulnerable parent who is their primary caregiver? What will that do to a child's mental health or life chances? 14/n

Arguably an even bigger societal cost is the 77,000 children whose lives are blighted by LongCovid (a total of 1.2 million ppl in UK, including many parents and teachers who caught the virus via schools). Long Covid can be utterly disabling:
aamc.org/news-insights/… 15/n

Is education really so critical that it's OK to completely ignore a 1/7 chance of chronic ill-health? (CLoCK study)

By excluding Long Covid from the narrative about schools (and other policymaking), we're assuming it's trivial & transient, for which there's ZERO evidence. 16/n

And then there's the fuzzier issue of 'invisible' long-term damage. Numerous studies are finding alarming indications of neurological, immune and organ damage in individuals who have seemingly recovered from 'mild' Covid 19, including in children. 17/n

Of course we won't know for certain the impacts for decades to come. -But does that make it OK to just ignore these red flags? - Especially in children who have the longest productive life ahead of them and arguably the most to lose. 18/n

Now of course we have to balance the health costs above against the benefits of education.

I'm a HUGE fan of education - My own has opened doors to me that I'd never otherwise have accessed. I absolutely want that for my kids 19/n

But it's worth bearing in mind that health is time-critical. If you inhale Covid you fall ill a few days later; you can't postpone the consequences.
If you need O2 b/c you're hypoxic & you don't receive it b/c hospitals are overwhelmed, you'll either die or be damaged. 20/n

In contrast, education (beyond exam years) is less time-critical. I spent the last few months fretting my 4yo was falling behind on phonics . OH pointed out that where he's from, kids don't start learning to read until age 6 (a disaster according to Ofsted🤣) 21/n

Has he turned out an academic failure?
Well no, he ended up a Professor
And then I remembered that in Sweden it's age 7!
So, at primary, I suggest we should stress less about brief learning gaps amid a pandemic
& Older children are (generally) more able to learn remotely 22/n

That's of course if you see the primary purpose of school as learning...If the purpose of school is to provide childcare to enable parents to work, or to play a safeguarding role in lieu of inadequate parenting, then you might come to a different conclusion...23/n

So increasingly, I get frustrated with the 'all-or-nothing' approach. Children aren't a homogeneous mass. Some struggle with periods of remote learning; others cope well, or even thrive! Equally the clinically vulnerable are safer at home & should be supported to stay there. 24/n

And why can't we make schools safer for those who need to be there? Air filters aren't intrusive. They cost pennies relative to other Covid expenditure.
(And as for masks...I'm out of space)

Feels to me like #childism; we simply can't be bothered

25/25