I feel like in a few decades, the only major countries that won’t be subject to broad US sanctions and embargoes will be the EU, Israel, Japan, ROK, and the other Five Eyes countries.

reuters.com/world/americas…
Basically the West plus its two loyal follower vassals, Japan and South Korea.

The US intends to close off the world trading system so that only itself and other Western entites can participate.
Within this closed off, latter day US version of the British imperial preferences system, the US will just harvest all the high value industries from its loyal vassals for itself, deepening the stagnation that they are already experiencing due to demographics and bad policy.
The outer vassals like the EU and Japan will be stripped by the US of all their high value industries under the guise of “national security” and information sharing requests, and will only exist as demographically declining, stagnating markets for US high tech exports.
In any event, once China masters build Large Commercial Aircraft (LCAs) and semiconductor fabrication machine tooling and design/simulation software in the next 10 years or so, I expect the US to really feel pressure to harvest even more of its allies stuff for itself.

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Tacos and Airplanes

Tacos and Airplanes Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @blob_watcher

17 Dec
The EU suffers from a real dilemma regarding its industrial future.

The US wants to harvest high end EU industries for itself, in the post-2016 era of competition w/ China. And have US companies be the only external high tech players in Europe.
If the EU consents to all this, this is a surefire recipe for total de-industrialization.

So the EU needs be able to continue to export to other large markets. And the only one that is large and still has capacity to grow is China.

Yet, EU trade w/ China is highly politicized.
Human rights disputes and the hidden geopol factor of the US constantly intervene, as do moralistic EU domestic politics.
Read 6 tweets
16 Dec
With this new new Covid wave in VN, I think 'China Plus One', one of the biggest business fads of the past decade, involving diversifying manufacturing away from China to another country, supercharged by the onset of decoupling under Trump, is over.

China is just more reliable. Image
Anglo journalists and bloggers were super into decoupling like that Dan Harris guy.

But actual business owners who moved their factories out of China now regret it.

This illustrates the difference between journalists and other bad faith actors (like lawyers' whose business depends on disputes) who are highly chauvinistic about supporting the West and are anti-China, and the reality of diffs in human capital, labor supply, state capacity, etc
Read 6 tweets
9 Nov
Universities in the US are on a one way treadmill to hell. They are dependent on a youth bulge, international students, and a good economy that is now passing due to a) aging population b) Cold War 2.0 with China c) funding issues after the GFC in '07-08.
Moreover, the exponential increase in facilities quality (keeping w/ the Joneses), which demands constant investment in ever more lavish buildings + admin staff has further assisted in the destruction of affordability.
A lot of Uni's w/ big endowments are now just hedge funds who happen to teach classes. They exist based on taxpayer subsidies in the form of student loans/VA GI Bill loans/etc.
Read 5 tweets
9 Nov
A lot of masters programs in the US are just money scams by Universities to generate revenue.

At my highly ranked undergrad State U alma mater (a "public Ivy"), one of the offered master's programs was notorious for this.

wsj.com/articles/usc-o…
Although of course USC is a private school, and notorious for being a rich kid's school. So there's that.
In general, most master's degrees are not worth it, unless your employer pays for it. And even then, they're probably not worth it in the personal free time sense. Being in school sucks.
Read 5 tweets
8 Nov
Was searching for new music when I stumbled across Taylor Swift’s re-recorded “Taylor’s Version” of songs. Made me go “huh?”

Had no idea she went through a crazy fight over IP rights with her old record label. American property rights are so fake.

en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taylor_Sw…
The older I get, the more I learn that everything in this country is contingent; never permanent, and heavily dependent on how much money you have, and how many lawyers your have. Even enforcement of basic common rights requires lawyers. “Rule of law” is a fake grift for midwits.
“[VA Governor Elect] Youngkin was co-CEO of The Carlyle Group, the major sponsor in Braun's acquisition of Big Machine and Swift's masters.”

Just…lol.

American life is just one person backstabbing another.
Read 4 tweets
7 Nov
The China watching community in the US has completely gone insular and insane over the past 3y since Trump began Cold War 2.0 vs China in 2018.
One small, but practical manifestation of this, is that Blob China watchers like James Palmer and some Brookings guys have basically blocked everyone.
Bill Bishop, aka niubi on Twitter, has basically gone private with his previously public account because it was getting so vitriolic.
Read 5 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

:(