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Mostly Borrowed Ideas Profile picture
@borrowed_ideas
Dec 13, 2021 • 12 tweets • 6 min read • Read on X
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1/ Thread: My presentation for Bangladeshi startups

North South University (NSU), a Bangladeshi university, invited me today to talk about financial modeling for the startups they are incubating. I started with a disclaimer that I never built any model for any startup...
2/ So my presentation was largely more qualitative than quantitative.

Here are my slides.

5 questions any business should ask.
3/ Why do you need to exist?

Relevant link: paulgraham.com/genius.html
4/ How do you know you have product market fit?

Relevant link: review.firstround.com/how-superhuman…
5/ How do you make money?
6/ What is your unit economics?
7/ Why can't others do what you do?

Relevant links:
Innovator's dilemma: amazon.com/Innovators-Dil…

Do things that don't scale: paulgraham.com/ds.html
8/ Before moving onto financial modeling, here's something to remember...
9/ Some thoughts on financial modeling
10/ Some benchmarks (general rule of thumb; not recommended to be indiscriminately used)

Relevant links:
BVP: bvp.com/atlas/scaling-…

The source of the table is not available online.
11/ Some final words on financial modeling
End/ All my twitter threads can be found here: mbi-deepdives.com/twitter-thread…

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More from @borrowed_ideas

Mostly Borrowed Ideas Profile picture
Sep 23
Just published my Deep Dive on $VEEV
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read the full Deep Dive here: mbi-deepdives.com/veev/
Some portfolio discussion

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Read 5 tweets
Mostly Borrowed Ideas Profile picture
Aug 20
Notes from $TXN Capital Management Call today

"Market environment remains weak, with shipments below 2019 levels." Image
growth opportunities in industrial and automotive Image
Four revenue scenarios for 2026, with floor being $20 Bn. FYI, $TXN consensus estimates for '26 revenue is $20 Bn.

"I would be extremely disappointed if it ends up at $20 billion. That's not my expectation. That's not the signature I see as we compete for market share today."Image
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Read 11 tweets
Mostly Borrowed Ideas Profile picture
Aug 5
I received a couple of DMs asking about "hey, what's going on in Bangladesh"

While I left Bangladesh in 2017, my almost entire family still lives there. So I'm keenly aware of what's going on. I'll briefly cover what happened and the implications.
let's start with the end result. The Prime Minister (PM) Sheikh Hasina or SH (who's the Head of State in Bangladesh) fled the country after facing intense protest from Bangladeshi students. Her exact location doesn't seem to be confirmed yet (rumored to be India or EU).
Let's back up a little and give some brief historical context.

SH came to power in 2008. Her father- Mujib was the architect in mobilizing people in Bangladesh to gain independence from Pakistan in 1971. Following independence, Mujib became the first PM of Bangladesh.
Read 24 tweets
Mostly Borrowed Ideas Profile picture
Aug 5
Incredibly lucky to have bought these puts exactly a month ago. +130%.

Made several (but slight) changes in the portfolio today. More below.
closed my $AMZN Jan 2025 $160 calls that I wrote. 43% gain in this trade, but feels like just another lucky trade as I now think AMZN is undervalued (and I was likely too cautious to hedge it at $160 back then). Kept the $55 calls unhedged now.

sold ~1% $BRO to add to $CNSWF.

CSU's organic growth for recurring revenue will probably more or less mimic $BRO's organic growth. But CSU has ~20% ROIC vs BRO's ~10% but they trade at *almost* similar multiple. So I decided to buyback what I trimmed.



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Read 5 tweets
Mostly Borrowed Ideas Profile picture
Jul 26
Going through insurance brokers earnings now. $AON and $MMC finally growing in tandem after AON lagged MMC consistently since 2Q'21.

$BRO is the clear winner in organic growth for this quarter. (disc: long $BRO and $AON) Image
Looking closer between MMC and AON. Image
will add to this thread later as I go through the transcript.

In the meantime, here's my Deep Dive on $BRO (also explains why I love this industry and would like to own probably most of these companies over time at "right" valuation):

mbi-deepdives.com/bro/
Read 12 tweets
Mostly Borrowed Ideas Profile picture
Jul 26
Notes on $TXN 2Q'24 Call

After sequential revenue decline in China for 7 consecutive quarters, this quarter experienced ~15-20% growth across all segments in China. Europe and Japan are also in early phase of the upcycle. Image
More commentary on China:

"the market is more competitive in China, but we can compete and we can win business in very attractive margins"Image
expect incremental margin to be ~75-85% (ex depreciation)

"Inventory is being built at the right part, where we have this diversity and longevity positions such that we don't risk the scrap of the inventory."Image
Read 6 tweets

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