🧵 Canada update December 13, including regions and vaccines.
Canada's weekly cases per 100K is up 31.4% from a week ago. 8,511 new cases have been reported today by PHU's.
#covid19 #cdnpoli
Regional risk levels.
Hottest regions, led by Kingston FLA Ontario.
@KFLAPH
Provincial rankings led by Quebec and New Brunswick
#qc #covid19nb
Hospitalization rates led by the Prairie provinces.
#covid19MB #covid19AB #covid19SK
Third doses. Not all provinces report at this time. Alberta has reached 11.6% of its population.
#covid19ab #BoosterShots
Provincial vaccine penetration. Alberta leads with 16.7% of the population unvaccinated. Newfoundland leads all provinces in vaccination rates.
#vaccinations
Summary: The winter wave has begun and includes increasing Omicron influence. Quebec, Ontario and New Brunswick are showing significant growth. Risk levels across the country vary widely. Third doses have not reached a meaningful percentage of the population at this time.

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More from @Billius27

14 Dec
🧵#Covid19Ontario key indicators Dec 14
1429 new cases vs 928 LW
Rt = 1.20
162 ICU
385 Hosp
5 new deaths
8.2% of popn have 3rd doses
31.5% of 5-11 have 1 dose
76.5% of pop have 2+ doses
#onhealth #onted #onpoli #Billius27
1,429 new cases, up 501 vs last week. 5 new deaths.
Doubling time now 13 days.
Almost 100,000 new doses. 85,245 third doses yesterday.
Read 12 tweets
14 Dec
#Covid19Ontario regional charts Dec 14
1429 new cases
Kingston hottest region in Canada.
Toronto growing, up +59% over last week.
#covid19 #Billius27 #onhealth #onted #onpoli
Risk levels, purple is highest.
Growth rates.
Read 7 tweets
14 Dec
Thread - South Africa EARLY findings. High breakthrough infection rate but vaccines still provide 70% level of hospital protection. The 29% lower severity estimate confounded by fact that this is a popn with high prior infection rates.
"Notwithstanding the lower severity, health systems could still be over-run by the sheer volume of cases, considering Omicron's rapid community spread"
We're in a difficult interval between needing to report Omicron and knowing early data is subject to change, sometimes significantly. I personally am relying on the work of the @UKHSA to give Canada a better look but the UK too has high seropositivity, unlike Canada.
Read 4 tweets
13 Dec
1⃣5⃣3⃣6⃣new #covid19ontario cases expected today, compared to 887 last week (🔼73.2%). The 7 day average is now 1328, up 41.3% from a week ago. Doubling time is now 14 days. Omicron Rt 3.32, share over 20%, doubling every 3 days. (ST)
#covid19 #onpoli #onhealth #Billius27
Science Table chart with estimated growth of Omicron. It should be dominant in Ontario by no later than next week. The above chart is a blend of both. As Omicron takes over from Delta, total cases are expected to accelerate dramatically.
Another way of looking at recent growth. I take the growth over the same day last week (red) and smooth it with a three day average (blue). You can see how the growth rate itself is accelerating. This is *steepening* exponential growth driven by Omicron's influence.
Read 4 tweets
12 Dec
The logic I have faced every day:
"It's unfair and it's *hard* to intervene in covid's growth so let's live with it because it might not be that bad and we can't keep fighting it because we can't eliminate it anyways."
1. A pandemic virus is unfair but here we are.
2. It IS hard to implement restrictions but it's harder to implement even more restrictions later. But some things like masks, distance, avoiding risks, and vaccines are not hard. There are a lot harder things, like being intubated.
3. We can live with it until we get infected and possibly suffer while spreading it to innocent people who will suffer even more. You know, the vulnerable who depend on us to keep them safe. They did not ask to "live with it" ... or die with it.
Read 6 tweets
11 Dec
If* tested symptomatics yesterday were 100% Omicron, new cases could have been ~3,600 due to extra vaccine immunity evasion. On Monday they could be ~7,200.
*rough calculation assuming Omicron case risk for 2+ dose vaxxed ~ 90% of unvaxxed risk and doubling time = 3 days.
The area of concern I have is hospitals. If Omicron continued at that 3 day doubling rate, then even if you argue that it's, say, 50% less severe, Omicron would match Delta in new hospital admissions three days later. The growth rate trumps the severity rate in this case.
If we break down R, the reproduction number, there are 4 components (D.O.T.S.), duration of infectiousness, number of Opportunities to be infected, Transmission rate, and number Susceptible. R can be held down with Delta because we reduce the "O" with masks, etc and "S" with vax.
Read 8 tweets

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