Thread by @HZiauddeen

🧵 COVID-19 in the UK: We're so fucked

Today UK case numbers set a new pandemic record, a milestone so portentous that, despite having nothing to say and no plan to announce, Boris Johnson had to hold a briefing, even if it was only for the symbolism.
And it was.
1/25

Chris Whitty did his best to inject some vital reality into the briefing and the title of this 🧵 is an homage to his valiant efforts, too little and too late, but at least a true communication of some of the harsh realities we face.
2/25

But the bottom line is the govt is going to continue to do just about enough to defend against the charge that it is doing nothing. A case that it will fight on a technicality.

Btw, for those who might point to Plan B and the booster plan, I offer you this analogy.
3/25

There is a fire burning through a hospital. It's blazed through paeds and the ICUs and is heading towards the oxygen storage. On the other side of the hospital, outside A&E, a drunk man watches the inferno & tries to aim an unsteady stream of piss at it.
'Fuckin wet shoes'
4/25

We are in the midst of a dual pandemic, omicron on delta. The doubling time of omicron is less than 2 days. Boris wants to offer vaccinations to everyone possible by the end of December, because it's the offer of a job/jab that really counts, not getting the actual job/jab.
5/25

End of December is 8 doubling times away.
The two weeks it'll take for a booster to start being effective is 7 doubling times.
And this booster stunt is not going to help control the spread of a pandemic doubling every 2 days.
It's just continuing with vaccines only.
6/25

Part of the workforce is being diverted to deliver Boris's publicity stunt.
The services & the workforce have already been heavily depleted and are in crisis.
We are in a position where even emergency care may not be available
7/25

https://twitter.com/HZiauddeen/status/1432697677930762246?s=20

Stay healthy, drive safely, don't take up risky sports or DIY, because you don't know if your local healthcare service will have the capacity to look after you. Personal responsibility folks.

And that's not considering those who will need hospitalisation for COVID.
8/25

Because what is predicted by the people who have got pretty much every prediction right in this pandemic and by SAGE is that cases and hospitalisations (and consequently deaths) are going to be at a whole different level.
9/25

In the 'unprecedented' times of the 21 months of the pandemic, we are entering an unprecedented period. The exponential curves with omicron are terrifying.
It is infuriating to see the media and the govt 'acting' in response to record case numbers.
10/25

'Well we never thought the fire would get to the oxygen stores. It's why we didn't try and stop it. Now, let's all clap for Steve, who's still outside A&E. Oh he's passed out? Ok, let's move on.'

Because this was all completely expected and predicted.
11/25

Omicron is a bit of a gamechanger but not a massive one i.e this kind of scenario was going to happen with uncontrolled transmission. The Omicron-delta dual pandemic scenario is bad but it's not like things were going swimmingly before omicron.
12/25

https://twitter.com/HZiauddeen/status/1464757120495194116?s=20

@dgurdasani1 @chrischirp @trishgreenhalgh @fitterhappierAJ @ProfColinDavis @Dr_D_Robertson and so many others have been warning about this latest disaster (as well as all the previous ones) for ages. They've been telling us it was coming.
13/25

They've been telling us it's here.
All these people have been telling us for months (in 3 months we can say 'for 2 years') what we need to do, what risks we're taking, what costs we are incurring and what we will continue to incur.

And today we had a symbolic briefing.
14/25

We're here because of the failings and deliberate actions of our corrupt govt. Because of powerful vested interests and a complicit media.
15/25

https://twitter.com/HZiauddeen/status/1439730298930012161?s=20

But we're also here because of scientists and doctors who have been actively complicit and advocated for:
-herd immunity
-It'll become endemic
-Vaccines will be our way out
-Keep schools open, don't protect children
-Living with the virus
16/25

https://twitter.com/HZiauddeen/status/1414236543137591299?s=20

21 months in and these ideas have been proved wrong repeatedly.But it is the approaches they have continued to argue for that have won.
The advocates of these approaches won the war and they have the casualties to prove it.
17/25

One of the most terrible things they have done the idea of taking any reasonable steps to control the pandemic so toxic in the discourse, by attacking anyone who makes the very reasonable case to do so, that we end up again in yet another crisis within a crisis.
18/25

We're in a far worse position in December 2021 than we were in December 2020 and that's after nearly a year of vaccines. This didn't just happen, it was entirely expected and inevitable because it was made so.
19/25

https://twitter.com/HZiauddeen/status/1449730318995443719?s=20

We're heading to a position where a lockdown is inevitable. Inevitable in the sense that we won't be able to control the pandemic without imposing one. That doesn't mean we'll have one because the idea of lockdowns has been made so unthinkable.
20/25

https://twitter.com/HZiauddeen/status/1400953391925370880?s=20

So we've been set up. Opposition to any reasonable measures to control transmission (masks, mitigations in schools) means the pandemic will surge. Opposition to any stricter measures when this happens means that things will only get worse.
21/25

https://twitter.com/HZiauddeen/status/1462547773480312835?s=20

And we'll still have these talking heads in parliament, on the media, on Twitter talking about 'people being alarmist' and proclaiming themselves as militant COVID centrists.
And all these forces will try and keep us focused on right now and the next short term 'fix'.
22/25

But even with that, think about how we're going to manage the cases, hospitalisations and deaths over the next few weeks. I'm struggling to see how we will.
Of course we'll get through the next few weeks, mainly because time will continue to flow and we'll have no choice.
23/25

But it'll be like a Hollywood disaster movie with not much of the cast left by the (unlikely-to-be-feel-good) ending. All the minority cast members will have perished but for a token token survivor. The lead white guy will somehow be ok of course.
24/25

https://twitter.com/HZiauddeen/status/1464938434657755139?s=20

This is the alternative to controlling the pandemic, you can let it burn out.
There will be a helluva lot of ashes and they'll be the remains of someone's loved ones.
It's hard to believe that this is what some people are STILL actively pursuing.
25/25

https://twitter.com/HZiauddeen/status/1449009117230768133?s=20