There’s still a lot of uncertainty around Omicron.

But it’s clearly about to cause a massive spike in cases. And soon.

Working in the ER today made me really concerned about what we’ll see in the coming weeks.

This is what I’m worried about…

🧵
For starters, we are facing a massive nursing shortage.

Nurses are overextended, taking care of more patients than is generally considered safe.

Anyone working in the ER knows that nothing happens without nurses.

And a good nurse can be the difference between life and death.
On top of that, healthcare workers are burnt out. Crushed. Exhausted after two years of the pandemic.

They are quitting in droves.

Those that stay are struggling with psychological scars or grasping to find the empathy that used to come so easily.

Most still pull it together and come to work.

Many just go through the motions. They’re ‘there’, but not like they used to be.

And a lot have just left. 18 percent of health-care workers have quit since the pandemic began.

@edyong209

theatlantic.com/health/archive…
And lastly, most ERs are swamped. Many were bad before the pandemic. They’re worse now.

Even those not crushed with Covid.

Today I saw a patient who needed heart surgery before the pandemic but put it off, showing up today when things got much worse.
npr.org/sections/healt…
The point is that even if Omicron cases turn out to be milder (which is no guarantee), the sheer number of expected cases can overwhelm an already fragile system.

Previously we asked you to flatten the curve.

But the next curve could truly flatten us.
Sure, we know a lot more know about Covid. We have much more experience treating severe disease and saving lives.

And we aren’t worried about ventilator shortages like March 2020.

But it’s much harder to produce a nurse than a ventilator.
In South Africa 20% of healthcare providers got sidelined with Covid after Omicron started spreading there.

If we experience even a fraction of that loss amongst our already struggling and short-staffed frontline providers, we’re in huge trouble.

mg.co.za/coronavirus-es…
Moreover, everything we learned about how to treat Covid over the last two years doesn’t matter much if you have to wait three times as long in the ER.

In many ways we’re much better off than we were in March 2020.

In many others, we’re not.
Whether out of complacency or exhaustion, we ignore this at our own peril.

As an ER doc, I promise you’d rather face the next few months fully vaccinated.

Wear a mask. Rapid test before indoor gatherings. Be safe.

And if you know a healthcare worker, maybe tell them thanks.

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More from @Craig_A_Spencer

12 Dec
After two years of Covid-19, the world is no better prepared for a pandemic today than it was in 2019.

That’s the damning assessment of the latest Global Health Security Index released last week.

Upsetting, but not surprising.

A 🧵 on what worries me:
nytimes.com/2021/12/08/hea…
Many would assume our response would be better next time, especially after all we’ve learned.

But that’s not a given.

For me, we face 3 critical weaknesses and vulnerabilities:

1. Eroding trust in public health leadership

2. Misuse of travel bans

3. Global vaccine inequity
1. Eroding trust in public health:

Public health has always been political. But the pandemic pitted one against the other.

No, CDC & FDA haven’t been perfect. But politicians spouting falsehoods have aggressively worked to undermine confidence in our public health institutions
Read 10 tweets
26 Nov
Some thoughts on the new variant, B.1.1.529 (aka ‘Nu’):
First and foremost, there is reason for concern, but nearly everything is still unclear at this moment.

The incredible team of scientists in South Africa that identified the variant along with @WHO and others are doing the research right now to answer 👇 important questions…
What IS clear is that knee-jerk reactions like banning flights may be politically palatable, but will do little to slow the spread of this variant.

In the coming days more countries will identify cases. And there’s a good chance it’s already spreading here and in other places.
Read 10 tweets
12 Nov
Seven years ago today I walked out of the hospital after surviving Ebola.

That day at a news conference—my knees shaking—I begged the world to focus on the still-raging outbreak in West Africa. Instead, when the immediate threat was over, we moved on.

Years later, Covid hit 🧵
There were so many lessons we should've learned from Ebola.

Foremost amongst them was the importance of global solidarity in responding to global health threats.

But that's a lesson we just didn't learn. Instead, we dodged a bullet and we moved on.
thelancet.com/journals/lance…
Few people knew that the New York City hospital where I was treated for Ebola had more doctors than Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone—the 3 hardest-hit countries of the Ebola outbreak—COMBINED.

And SO many frontline providers in those countries died of Ebola during the outbreak.
Read 11 tweets
6 Aug
Are you fully vaccinated but worried about Delta? You’re not alone.

In my latest for @TheAtlantic, I explain why everyone needs to relax. The vaccines are still working just fine.

theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/…
I understand everyone’s concern. Delta cases are surging nationally.

Some pharmaceutical companies say their vaccines hold up, while others are less sure.

And in the aftermath of the Provincetown outbreak, hot vax summer started feeling more like hot mask summer overnight.
Misleading headlines and leaked slides added to everyones worry. Everyone is asking me:

“I’m fully vaccinated…but do the shots still protect me?”

Of course they do.

The vaccines are incredible, but they’re not perfect. They never were.
Read 8 tweets
5 Aug
Moderna: Our vaccines are still SUPER effective!

Also Moderna: BUT you're def gonna wanna get one of our special booster shots! 😉

Pharma companies stand to make billions by pushing boosters, whether you need one or not.

For the great majority of you, you don't.
Oh boy, the replies. Ok let me clarify:

Who likely needs a booster: organ transplant recipients, the immunosuppressed (e.g. on chemotherapy), and some J&J recipients [particularly the elderly].

Everyone else? There’s no data they are indicated yet.

See 👇 by @celinegounder
“Ok, whatever. What’s the downside of getting one?”

For starters, globally vaccines remain in very short supply. Most are concentrated in wealthy countries.

What’s something that’ll actually make you safer? Get people around the world their first dose before we get our third.
Read 6 tweets
12 Jul
I absolutely agree with your goal Rep. @AOC—we desperately need to get the rest of the world vaccinated.

But instead of making nations reliant on US exports, we must expand vaccine manufacturing globally.

The US MUST help the rest of the world scale-up vaccine production. 🧵
Over 2 months ago, the US waived intellectual property protections for Covid-19 vaccines. Many (including myself) applauded the decision.

But there’s since been little movement on transferring the technical know-how needed to expand global manufacturing.

ustr.gov/about-us/polic…
If we want to end the pandemic and make a long-term difference, we need more than just donated doses.

US financial & technical support can help build critical vaccine manufacturing capacity in countries where production is severely limited or nonexistent.
doctorswithoutborders.org/what-we-do/new…
Read 7 tweets

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