Thread by @edyong209

🚨Well, I wrote about Omicron--what we know & what it means.

I feel the core problem is unchanged: The variant poses a much greater threat at the societal level than the individual one, making it the kind of problem the US has consistently flubbed. 1/
theatlantic.com/health/archive…

First, a clarification. It's v. easy to ascribe everything to the new variant but even if Omicron hadn’t emerged, we’d still looking at a bad winter.

Hospitalizations are rising. 1000+ deaths /day. That’s Delta. What’ll Omicron do *on top of that*? 2/
theatlantic.com/health/archive…

This piece analyzes that question at 2 scales—individual and societal. Individually, things are... not great but also not catastrophic. Societally, I am sad to say it’s bleaker.

I won’t tweet the whole piece, but here are some key points. 3/
theatlantic.com/health/archive…

In simple terms, everyone should assume they’re less protected than they were 2 months ago. But if vaccinated (and esp. if boosted), some protection persists (and esp. against severe disease). A setback, then, but honestly could've been worse. 4/
theatlantic.com/health/archive…

The big problem is Omicron’s incredible speed. It's VERY good at spreading, due to some unclear combo of inherent transmissibility and/or skill at dodging immune defenses.

Bottom line: There’s about to be a huge wave of Omicron infections. 5/ theatlantic.com/health/archive…

“But isn’t Omicron milder?” 4 reasons for caution.
▶️Might simply be that it has mostly infected young people w/ some immunity.
▶️“Mild” infections can -> long COVID.
▶️Extreme transmissibility trumps reduced virulence.
▶️(see next tweet)
6/
theatlantic.com/health/archive…

I cannot stress this enough: The healthcare system cannot take any more. Don’t ask if Omicron will overwhelm it. It *is already overwhelmed.*

As one doc told me, “The level of care that we’ve come to expect in our hospitals no longer exists.” 7/
theatlantic.com/health/archive…

There's more in the piece, & the last section goes into what this means—antivirals, testing, Omicron’s origins, endemicity, and more.

And I also have a second related piece coming out tomorrow. 8/ theatlantic.com/health/archive…

That’s all I’ve got for you. I hate that we’re here. If people are tired of reading these pieces, I guarantee that I’m more tired of writing them. But we’re still here. And I still care about Covid. 9/

theatlantic.com/health/archive…

PS. We fixed a small admin error, so this piece, which was briefly behind our paywall, should now be free and in front of it.
theatlantic.com/health/archive…

If you’ve read this thread or piece and are struggling to work out how to apply it to holiday-season choices you have to make, here’s my attempt to work through one such personal decision. Maybe it’ll help. theatlantic.com/health/archive…