NEW: Using a massive database compiled on the Wagner Group by former Ukrainian intelligence officers, we found and interviewed half a dozen families who have lost sons, husbands or brothers in Vladimir Putin's mercenary army. A four-month investigation: newlinesmag.com/reportage/the-…
The story behind the story: In September, I traveled to Kyiv to do some reporting for my forthcoming GRU book. I was introduced to Gen. Ihor Guskov, a former counterintelligence officer at the SBU, Ukraine's domestic security service.
Guskov has spent the last seven years tracking every known Wagner fighter around the world.
With his onetime boss, Vasyl Hrytsak, Guskov now runs the Ukrainian Center of Analytics and Security, a think tank, that continues the work they started at the SBU.
Their database includes more than 4,000 Wagner fighters. Guskov gave me the whole thing.
Each entry includes a full name, date of birth, callsign, and a ton of photographs mined from social media for every documented fighter. In many cases, Guskov also found last known home addresses for the mercenaries.
Using the latter information, @newlinesmag and its partners @DelfiEE and @dagensnyheter tracked down family members of fallen fighters. All had similar stories to tell about how their relatives were recruited and died on foreign battlefields under the veil of secrecy.
E.g. "Mark didn’t have any military experience that his mother is aware of. Natalya tried to persuade him not to go, but he insisted. 'I said I was against it, but he just said, "Mom, I love you." And that was it,' Natalya says."
"Just a little over a month later Mark was killed. 'He was just cannon fodder,' Natalya says."
Most of the Wagner fighters we profiled are buried in a cemetery in Rostov. Their families have been told not to ask questions or seek any kind of restitution if they ever intend to cross into Russia to visit the gravesites. Some aren't even convinced their loved one is gone.
“How do I know that my brother is dead? I have no death certificate or anything,” asks Oleg, the brother of Aleksandr Motinga, who joined Wagner and is believed to have died in Syria in 2017.
It was virtually the same story everywhere we went: poor young men with little to no schooling, often from broken or violent homes, lured by ambiguous online adverts with promises of foreign adventure and small fortunes.
One mercenary, Vladislav Apostol, was from a little-populated village near Chișinau. He became notorious after a video surfaced in 2017 showing Apostol and four other Wagner fighters torturing and mutilating Hamadi Bouta, a deserter from the Syrian army.
They bludgeoned, dismembered and immolated Bouta -- on camera. Then they took selfies.
Apostol wielded a sledgehammer.
In the EU's sanctions package announced this week, that gruesome snuff film was cited as one of the many war crimes Wagner is guilty of.
Dmitry Utkin, the former GRU officer who commands the group, is accused of having ordered this atrocity as well as the filming of it.
Apostol was killed in that famous firefight with US-backed forces (and US aircraft) near the Conoco gas plant in eastern Syria in March 2018.
Using Gen. Guskov's dataset, we were also able to conduct a demographic analysis of the Wagner Group.
"Among the 4,184 individuals in the database, fighters have come from 15 different countries, and some have multiple citizenships. The majority, 2,708, unsurprisingly hail from Russia, 222 from Ukraine, 17 from Belarus, 11 from Kazakhstan, nine from Moldova, eight from Serbia..."
"four from Armenia, four from Uzbekistan, three from Bosnia and Herzegovina, two from Kyrgyzstan, two from Tajikistan, two from Syria, two from Turkmenistan and one from Georgia." Some have dual or multiple citizenships.
With respect to fatalities, we found that of "the 372 confirmed dead, 75 are known to have died from 2014 to 2016, 186 in 2017 and 86 in 2018."
According to Hrytsak, the former SBU chief, it is nonsensical to describe Wagner as a "private military company." It is, he says, "Russian military intelligence" and it poses a serious danger not only to Ukraine and the MENA region, but globally.
“If they need to recruit 100 people tomorrow to do something illegal in Europe, these people will fly in dressed in civilian clothes...They will assemble, put on uniforms and take up arms. One small group can very quickly destabilize the situation in any country."
Today's front-page story in @dagensnyheter: "The mercenaries are fighting in Putin's secret army."
And @DelfiEE's ad for the investigation, broadcast in snowy Tallinn:
NEW: A Syrian army deserter was savagely beaten to death and mutilated on camera by soldiers of the notorious Wagner Group in eastern Syria in 2017. Now his family wants justice. Report by @newlinesmag and Sweden’s @dagensnyheternewlinesmag.com/reportage/fami…
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New insights from "Karl," the Estonian military analyst, as told to @holger_r and me: 🧵
"Last time, we discussed that the situation near Vuhledar had become critical for UA. By now, it has been abandoned. In summary, RU's offensive toward Vuhledar began a year ago with an attack on Novomykhailivka. The situation in Vuhledar itself started to become uncomfortable a few months ago."
"The main reason RU is advancing there—like along the entire eastern front—is that it's hard to defend against Russian bombs. If RU bombers get close and drop glide bombs, sooner or later UA positions are destroyed, and they must retreat."
New "Karl" analysis on the latest in Ukraine, with @holger_r: 🧵
"In Kursk, the UA offensive developed further (since last time we spoke), and in total UA managed to conquer as much territory as RU had conquered in eastern Ukraine since the beginning of the year. This was done in the first 2 weeks of the operation."
"Now there is talk of a possible RU counter-attack. It remains to be seen how strong it will be, but it will certainly come. My guess is that resources that RU currently has in the region will not be enough to kick UA entirely out of the area."
Latest from "Karl," @holger_r's and my favorite Estonian military analyst, on developments in the war:
"Let’s start with the situation on the eastern front as it is still the most painful and problematic for Ukraine. Russian pressure and forward movement toward Pokrovske and Toretsk continue there. Russia has very small daily advances there but it is still worrying that Ukraine hasn’t been able to put a stop to it."
"A week ago it was estimated that since the beginning of the year Russia has gained 750 sq km. This area in itself is very little, nothing dramatic. Ukraine has taken control of 200 sq km in the Kursk oblast in just two days."
The European Federation of Journalists is celebrating the release of "Pablo Gonzalez" and equating him with Evan Gershkovich and Vladimir Kara-Murza. This is not only ridiculous in light of the swap, it is dangerous. Gonzalez is a GRU operative whose real name is Pavel Rubtsov. He was detained by Polish intelligence in Feb. 2022. Short🧵europeanjournalists.org/blog/2024/08/0…
According on leaked travel data obtained and reported on by @agents_media, Rubtsov traveled with GRU officer Sergei Turbin, who belongs to the service's Fifth Department, which handles GRU "illegals" (spies working outside of diplomatic cover). agents.media/sledivshij-za-…
Moreover, as @agents_media and @InsiderEng both reported, Rubtsov's taskings included infiltrating the circle of Zhanna Nemtsova, the daughter of murdered Russian opposition leader Boris Nemtsov. The Poles recovered from Rubtsov detailed reports not only on Zhanna (including letters her father wrote, which Rubtsov copied from her laptop) but on other Russian dissidents affiliated with the Nemtsov Foundation. nemtsovfund.org/en/
NEW: @InsiderEng and its partners @lemondefr and @derspiegel have identified the French chef arrested on suspicion of working for Russian intelligence to disrupt the Paris Olympics. Meet Kirill Griaznov, a Cordon Bleu-trained chef, reality TV star and FSB officer. We have his emails. Oh, and he's been to New York too! theins.press/en/politics/27…
The Perm-born Griaznov has resided in France for 14 years. He only decided to become a chef suddenly in 2010 after years working as a lawyer for financial services companies. While in Luxembourg, he met Lord Robert Skidelsky, a British peer. He was very excited about this and wanted to meet Skidelsky again in Moscow. Skidelsky seemed keen.
(Skidelsky was suspended from the House of Lords last year for not properly disclosing his ties to a think tank bankrolled by sanctioned Russian oligarchs. He's very critical of the UK's security assistance to Ukraine and was against Swedish and Finnish NATO membership.) thetimes.com/world/russia-u…