The pivot point in UK mortality last year was December 8th, the date the vaccine rollout began - a pattern that that repeated in many countries. I fear the booster drive this winter will create another pivot point, however it’s likely that Omicron will be made the scapegoat. 
Last year empirical and anecdotal evidence indicated a spike in deaths amongst the recently vaccinated. A source within SAGE revealed that the government were aware of a period of vulnerability post-vaccination but withheld the public health information on this.
The vulnerabilities are particularly high during winter given the usual background pressures on the immune system and the healthcare system, a problem that is further compounded by high levels of cases of the virus.
As a result it sadly appears to be a perfect storm this winter. I hope I’m wrong in my hypothesis and conclusions but will be watching the data closely.
The saving grace is that if Omicron is proven to be milder, then it would likely mean that any spike in mortality will be far less severe than winter 2020.
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