Amazing that two years into this, people still don’t understand that it starts out mild and then worsens

Given omicron’s doubling time, the denominator you have to work with for outcomes is the number of cases that were infected at the same time as the cases you are measuring.
So to determine case hospitalization rate, you have to use the number of cases from when hospitalized people got sick, some 6-8 days ago. Not today’s case number.

Same with case fatality rate — you have to go even further back in time.
So if we have people dying from Omicron now, when case numbers were barely detectable 10 days ago, we should be very, very afraid.
This virus is moving so fast that it is going from first case to over half of cases in just a week, in areas such as northeast Ohio that were already swarming with Delta.

Don’t be fooled by rear view mirror optical illusions.

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More from @denise_dewald

22 Dec
Our public health leadership failed us.

And I am sure not a single one will face consequences for the disaster that they not only allowed to happen, but facilitated.
They refused to listen to aerosol scientists who had collected the data over the past two decades that respiratory diseases are spread predominantly by respiratory aerosols.

And two years into this disaster, they still don’t provide the people with the tools needed to fix this.
We all need to understand aerosol transmission.

We all need to wear tight fitting, effective masks indoors or at close quarters.

We need to clean our indoor air through ventilation and air filtration.

We need to monitor ventilation with CO2 detectors in public spaces.
Read 7 tweets
22 Dec
If you want to live, get vaccinated.

If you want to avoid getting infected, passing it on to another person, and risking Long Covid, wear a properly fitting N95 mask or better, and ventilate and filter the air.

The vaccine is a life insurance policy.
I have gotten complaints about my tweets because they are too negative. Tough.

I believe in the truth. People deserve the unflinching truth. Only truth allows you to make the best decisions.

Lying to people is disrespectful and wrong. And it will always ultimately backfire.
I see vaccinated people all around me catching Covid. I have been exposed myself as a result. Don’t tell me that vaccines protect against infection now. They do not. But it’s the best life insurance policy around, other people than living in a responsible country like Taiwan.
Read 4 tweets
20 Dec
Who is Mark E Lindsay, and why did he block me?
I don’t know who he is, and I have no recollection ever interacting with him.
Only clue I can come up with. @alisadoc1
Read 4 tweets
17 Dec
Ohio is calling in the National Guard to help out in the hospitals.
The state government is also paying for temporary staffing in hospitals.

Would be easier and cheaper to mandate masks, TBH.
DeWine is thanking health care workers. I wonder if he will order pizza.
Read 11 tweets
26 Nov
I think something is living in my wall. 😬
It sounds big.
It’s in a part of the house built over a a slab and I cannot see around the foundation because it is hidden by an enclosed deck. Methinks a clever mammal found a nice home.
Read 4 tweets
26 Nov
Can white people stop being such dumbasses and learn from Taiwan? Honestly, it is time to check your white supremacy, individualism, and subtle racism at the door.
And for those who call Taiwan a “tiny country,” it has 24 million people and is among the 20th most densely populated places on the planet.
And Japan did the same trick. It has 124 million people, is 11th in the world in population, and is one of the most densely populated countries in the world.
Read 5 tweets

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