In general I am impressed and v. positive about how the UK Science community does analysis and feeds into UK Government - SAGE and tip-of-the-spear Patrick Vallance. eg, It's notable how Germany's new expert modelling/academic group under the new Government has a nod to this.
(UK is a very mixed bag in pandemic response. Some is knock it out of the park good - RECOVERY trial, some has improved hugely over a year - data flows, testing, sequencing, and some is ... really not so good. That's a British understatement for non-Brits).
...but...
Once this virus goes into the going-to-very-annoying endemic management phase, I do think drawing some analogies with how technical financial advice is delivered in well understood ways for politics and commentators would be good (eg, OBR etc).
For me this is improving on a pretty good set up (SPI-M, NERVTAG -> SAGE -> Advice to ministers)
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COVID thoughts from beautiful, misty Northumberland. TL;DR As expected, Omicron is exploding in numbers in cities and beyond worldwide. Reassuringly Omicron infections are less likely to end up in hospital, but whether this reduction in severity is enough to be safe is unclear
Context: I am an expert in human genetics and computational biology. I know experts in infectious epidemiology, viral genomics, immunology and clinical trials. I have some conflicts of interest: I am a consultant and sharehold of Oxford Nanopore and I was on the Ox/Az trial.
Reminder: Omicron is the first "antigen drift" variant with fast transmission from SARS-CoV-2. This drifting antigen presentation on spike is one of the ways Coronaviruses shift their appearance to our immune system, so it was expected, though always not fully appreciated.
With Scottish, English and South African data all in hospitalisation risk given infection all coming in below 50% (range I think 80% lower SA to 60% lower, English some endpoints) this key parameter is firming up. Frustratingly in the balance from my reading of the SPI-M models
(plus "what does xx% lower mean - xx% per infection or per equivalent infection knowing that Omicron reinfects etc," and how does one factor this vs vaccination and age - so much detail here to nail down)
Basically, good news, and provides narrower spaces for models (both forward models and backward models on infection levels as hospitalisations are more completely ascertained than cases etc).
Omicron thoughts from dark, Christmas London. TL;DR - Europe+World is facing the Omicron storm and it looks increasingly bad; and, obviously, the virus doesn't care about Christmas. Despite some serious response in the UK, this virus is replicating fast; more action likely needed
Context: I am an expert in human genetics and computational biology. I know experts in infectious epidemiology, viral genomics, immunology and clinical trials. I have some COIs: I am consultant and shareholder of ONT and was on the Ox/Az trial.
Reminder: SARS-CoV-2 is a recently jumped coronavirus into humans which causes a very nasty disease, COVID, in a subset of people. It has rushed across the world over 2 years, combatted by lockdowns and more recently vaccines, but causing death and disease in many places.
One consistent thing in this pandemic is for a given virus biology (parameters of infection, immune escape, disease severity) the growth or reduction fits models / understanding well
(A short diversion here between forecast/now cast models - accurately predicting the next handful of days - and scenario models - helping decision makers plan given uncertain parameters and choices for intervention-
Forecast models absolutely should be benchmarked to outturn. Scenario models for the discovered parameters and interventions benchmarked by shape and size but less so timing)
COVID thoughts from cold, Christmas London. TL;DR The Omicron storm clouds are glowering above Europe, but its unclear whether this will just be rain and hail of COVID or rain, hail, tornados and hurricanes of infection and subsequent hospitalisation of COVID.
Context: I am an expert in human genetics and computational biology. I know experts in infectious epidemiology, viral genomics, immunology, public health and clinical trials. I have COIs - I am consultant and shareholder to Oxford Nanopore and was on the Ox/Az vaccine trial.
Reminder: COVID is horrible disease triggered by the infection of SARS-CoV-2 in a subset of people. A combination of reducing contacts (early), reducing travel (some countries) and vaccination brought SARS-CoV-2 towards a somewhat endemic trajectory over 2020 and 2021. However >>
This is in my crude list of effectiveness; one is missing which is the "don't meet people" (its simple. not long term.) and this has to be kept on the table as a possibility. To step through them.