Dr Ellie Murray, ScD Profile picture
Dec 22, 2021 15 tweets 6 min read Read on X
THINK LIKE AN EPIDEMIOLOGIST, Part 2.

In today’s 1st thread, I discussed the math of infections to help you understand what #TinyWiseDecisions you can make to be #COVIDSafer this winter.

In this 2nd thread, I want to give some concrete ideas for making your risk a little lower.
Omicron is very contagious & ideally, we would all be taking STRONG precautions.

But risk is additive & a spectrum, so #TinyWiseDecisions will help.

Choose something from this thread or share an idea of your own, so that we can all be just that much safer this holiday season.
Idea 1: If you are planning to attend more than one holiday event, choose one of them to decline.

Attending even one less gathering makes everyone safer.
Idea 2: If you are hosting a gathering, invite one less household.

Infection transmits easily within households, so having many different households together is more risky than fewer households.
Idea 3: If you’re going to a gathering, take a rapid test right before heading out of the house.

If the test is positive, or if you have any symptoms, stay home!
Idea 4: Wear a mask if you weren’t planning on wearing one. If you were already planning to wear a mask, choose a better mask.

KN95s or N95s are good. If you’re already wearing those, make them better by ensuring a nice snug fit.
Idea 5: If you are attending a holiday gathering, open up the windows to let some fresh air in, even if it’s a bit frosty.

If you were already going to do that, consider spending some of the time in the garden or on the balcony (if you have either—I dont!).
Idea 6: If you were going to visit more than one household, add an additional day or two between your planned visits.

Just a couple extra days will give you time to detect if you or anyone at the first household was infected.
Idea 7: If you were planning a holiday outing to the movies or theater or a restaurant or similar, choose a less crowded time or place, an outdoor seating option if available, or wait a few days before seeing family.
Idea 8: If you’ve been delaying getting vaccinated, make an appointment today! Accept whichever vaccine is available soonest.

The best vaccine is the one in your arm!
Idea 9: If your religious community is offering virtual services, choose those instead of in person. If you dont have that option, choose a less busy service (7am maybe?).

Mask up, spread out, dont shake hands or hug, dont linger too long chatting, ask to keep doors open.
Idea 10: If your gathering has a meal, consider having people plan to bring the food home rather than eating all together. Eating requires unmasking & unmasking means more chance of transmission.

Alternative: have different households eat in different rooms at the gathering.
Okay, there are surely many many many other ways to make your holiday safer & to choose #TinyWiseDecisions, but I’m running out of steam right now.

Share with us what you are planning to keep yourself & your loved ones #COVIDSafer this holiday season.
An important caveat to Idea #6.

Waiting gives time for symptoms to manifest but waiting for less time could just make you asymptomatic & infectious at your visit! Be careful out there, friends 💜
For all you “no one would do this” folks….

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More from @EpiEllie

Jun 7
Having read the MAHA report, what stands out most to me as an epidemiologist is how inexplicably sloppy it is.

The US government collects data on every health condition you can think of, and the report doesn’t use any of it. Image
At one point, they want to talk about increasing rates of childhood chronic disease. The government collects this data annually. It is publicly available.

For some mindboggling reason, they chose not to use it. Image
Instead of the freely available plot of childhood disease *rates*, they show a random graph of healthcare *costs* from the internet.

There aren't even children's healthcare costs. It makes no sense. Image
Read 8 tweets
May 4
RFK Jr is mandating vaccines get tested against placebo as if this is some bold new idea.

The truth is we do test vaccines against placebo.

But when you have a working vaccine, it is seriously ethically fucked up to continue to withhold it from kids who might otherwise die.
This means if a vaccine vs placebo trial is successful, all the placebo arm participants will be informed they got placebo and offered the vaccine.

Because withholding the vaccine from them just so you could do long-term vaccine vs placebo follow-up would be seriously fucked.
And the consequence of that is it is not possible to study things like “does this vaccine that babies get at 18 months old cause learning delays in those kids when they are 9 years old?”

Because by 9 years old, all the kids in your study have gotten a successful vaccine.
Read 6 tweets
Apr 22
FACT CHECK: This viral graph claims to *prove* vaccines cause autism.

But there's something fishy about the data! Let's dive in. Image
The CDC only started collecting data on autism in 2000.

This is what those data👇 look like. A much smaller increase! Image
But the values for 1995, 1970, and 1920 completely control the shape of the red curve.

Where do they come from? Not the CDC! Image
Read 7 tweets
Dec 2, 2024
IMO, there is very little that’s more dangerous than tyrants acknowledging obvious problems everyone can see exists, because “reasonable” people then assume the tyrants will fix these problems.

The tyrants will not. They are always and only going to advance their own interests.
For example: Tyrants do not like universities because universities are an alternative center of free speech and thought and because education has the power to overturn tyrants.
When a tyrant tells you there is a problem with the universities, this is not because they are going to fix the problem. It is a trick. The tyrants are always planning to burn the universities down.
Read 5 tweets
Nov 16, 2024
I did a couple raw milk posts this week, and a frequent comment was: “if babies can drink raw milk, why can’t adults?”

It shouldn’t need to be said but:

Human mothers are NOT cows. Human milk is NOT the same as cow milk.

NEVER give a human baby “raw” cow milk.
Also, human babies CAN get sick from human milk but it’s also their best food source—even though it is sometimes not an option for all babies or parents.

So, let’s talk about how human babies can get sick from human milk.
The first way human milk can make human babies sick is that some (but NOT all) infectious diseases can be passed from mom to baby in the milk.

HIV is an important example of this.
Read 17 tweets
Oct 31, 2024
I love twitter bc where else can I, an person with two graduate degrees from Harvard in both infectious disease epidemiology and biostatistics, be assured I am wrong about infectious disease epi and statistics by a software engineer who has “read multiple FDA package inserts”
sorry if that’s elitist, but I worked really really really hard to know more about this stuff than the average person, so 🤷🏼‍♀️
Having read multiple software installation guides does not make me think I know more about software engineering than a software engineer.

But maybe I’ve been selling myself short all these years!
Read 4 tweets

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