Dr Ellie Murray, ScD Profile picture
Dec 22, 2021 15 tweets 6 min read Read on X
THINK LIKE AN EPIDEMIOLOGIST, Part 2.

In today’s 1st thread, I discussed the math of infections to help you understand what #TinyWiseDecisions you can make to be #COVIDSafer this winter.

In this 2nd thread, I want to give some concrete ideas for making your risk a little lower.
Omicron is very contagious & ideally, we would all be taking STRONG precautions.

But risk is additive & a spectrum, so #TinyWiseDecisions will help.

Choose something from this thread or share an idea of your own, so that we can all be just that much safer this holiday season.
Idea 1: If you are planning to attend more than one holiday event, choose one of them to decline.

Attending even one less gathering makes everyone safer.
Idea 2: If you are hosting a gathering, invite one less household.

Infection transmits easily within households, so having many different households together is more risky than fewer households.
Idea 3: If you’re going to a gathering, take a rapid test right before heading out of the house.

If the test is positive, or if you have any symptoms, stay home!
Idea 4: Wear a mask if you weren’t planning on wearing one. If you were already planning to wear a mask, choose a better mask.

KN95s or N95s are good. If you’re already wearing those, make them better by ensuring a nice snug fit.
Idea 5: If you are attending a holiday gathering, open up the windows to let some fresh air in, even if it’s a bit frosty.

If you were already going to do that, consider spending some of the time in the garden or on the balcony (if you have either—I dont!).
Idea 6: If you were going to visit more than one household, add an additional day or two between your planned visits.

Just a couple extra days will give you time to detect if you or anyone at the first household was infected.
Idea 7: If you were planning a holiday outing to the movies or theater or a restaurant or similar, choose a less crowded time or place, an outdoor seating option if available, or wait a few days before seeing family.
Idea 8: If you’ve been delaying getting vaccinated, make an appointment today! Accept whichever vaccine is available soonest.

The best vaccine is the one in your arm!
Idea 9: If your religious community is offering virtual services, choose those instead of in person. If you dont have that option, choose a less busy service (7am maybe?).

Mask up, spread out, dont shake hands or hug, dont linger too long chatting, ask to keep doors open.
Idea 10: If your gathering has a meal, consider having people plan to bring the food home rather than eating all together. Eating requires unmasking & unmasking means more chance of transmission.

Alternative: have different households eat in different rooms at the gathering.
Okay, there are surely many many many other ways to make your holiday safer & to choose #TinyWiseDecisions, but I’m running out of steam right now.

Share with us what you are planning to keep yourself & your loved ones #COVIDSafer this holiday season.
An important caveat to Idea #6.

Waiting gives time for symptoms to manifest but waiting for less time could just make you asymptomatic & infectious at your visit! Be careful out there, friends 💜
For all you “no one would do this” folks….

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Dr Ellie Murray, ScD

Dr Ellie Murray, ScD Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @EpiEllie

Nov 16
I did a couple raw milk posts this week, and a frequent comment was: “if babies can drink raw milk, why can’t adults?”

It shouldn’t need to be said but:

Human mothers are NOT cows. Human milk is NOT the same as cow milk.

NEVER give a human baby “raw” cow milk.
Also, human babies CAN get sick from human milk but it’s also their best food source—even though it is sometimes not an option for all babies or parents.

So, let’s talk about how human babies can get sick from human milk.
The first way human milk can make human babies sick is that some (but NOT all) infectious diseases can be passed from mom to baby in the milk.

HIV is an important example of this.
Read 17 tweets
Oct 31
I love twitter bc where else can I, an person with two graduate degrees from Harvard in both infectious disease epidemiology and biostatistics, be assured I am wrong about infectious disease epi and statistics by a software engineer who has “read multiple FDA package inserts”
sorry if that’s elitist, but I worked really really really hard to know more about this stuff than the average person, so 🤷🏼‍♀️
Having read multiple software installation guides does not make me think I know more about software engineering than a software engineer.

But maybe I’ve been selling myself short all these years!
Read 4 tweets
Oct 1
Niche nerdy tweet incoming:

I’m not at all sure about this instrument.

The “no defiers” assumption seems unlikely to hold — is there really no possible couple who would have divorced if the husband’s workplace stayed the same but not if it had hired more women?
Also, the “treatment” is “parental divorce” which sounds like a single “point” exposure but it’s not. It’s time-varying.

The workplace gender data is daily (wow!) so every day is a new opportunity for the gender-ratio to affect divorce — i.e. timing of divorce likely violates the exclusion restriction assumption.
A good rule of thumb when doing studies with a “never treated” category is to ask yourself “when does never start?”.

If there isn’t a clear start date for “never” then you don’t have a point exposure!!
Read 12 tweets
Jan 13
PUBLIC HEALTH MINUTE:

Honey is sweet and sticky and wonderful and everyone loves it, and babies are sweet and sticky and wonderful and everyone loves them.

But you should NEVER ever give honey to babies.

Why?

The short answer is: botulism.

The longer answer: a 🧵
What is botulism?

Botulism is the general name we give to several different diseases caused by the bacteria Clostridium botulinum.

This includes foodborne botulism, wound botulism, ‘iatrogenic’ (aka cosmetic) botulism and *infant* botulism.
Foodborne botulism, wound botulism, and iatrogenic botulism differ in what body part is affected but otherwise follow the same basic process.
Read 22 tweets
Jan 9
If everyone you know is suddenly getting “food poisoning”, just FYI that it is probably not actually food poisoning but is instead norovirus.

Norovirus (sometimes called “stomach flu” but not actually flu) is seasonal, and right now in the US it is norovirus season.
Norovirus symptoms are mostly vomiting, diarrhea, and cramps. But some people also have headache and fever.

Typically, symptoms last only a couple days, but for very young kids, very old people, or people who have weakened immune systems for any reason can be sick for longer.
Norovirus spreads by when uninfected people accidentally ingest the poop or vomit of an infected person (eww!).

This happens when teeny tiny bits of poop or vomit get onto other people, shared surfaces, or into shared food.
Read 13 tweets
Jan 6
I am a methodologist. Methods is a speciality. We make recipes for others to use.

When I publish methods, I include relevant code, equations, assumptions, & interpretations. I *intend* for people to re-use these.

Citation is expected. Quotation marks would be ridiculous.
For eg, if you are estimating a per-protocol effect of treatment adherence with treatment-confounder feedback using inverse probability weighting, I’ve shared my code & my papers with correct language for your methods & results sections.

Use it, cite it. Thats why it’s there.
Read 5 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us!

:(