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bitbutter Profile picture
@mormo_music
Dec 24, 2021 • 56 tweets • 18 min read • Read on X
thread collecting evidence of vaccines (now) being more susceptible to SARS-CoV-2 infection 🧵


"the more you vaccinate the more likely you are to get omicron" nakedemperor.substack.com/p/the-new-norm…
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*vaccinees
"For each of the 219 nations in the Our World in Data repo , I tallied COVID-19 cases and deaths [...] Every correlation is positive; more vaccination is associated with more COVID-19 cases and more COVID-19 deaths from @EduEngineerroundingtheearth.substack.com/p/systemic-cov…
2 doses of astrazeneca or Pfizer both result in negative efficacy against omicron. imperial college study.
rate among fully vaccinated in Iceland has accelerated very sharply and now reached the rate of 'not fully vaccinated' (fully unvaccinated rate not shown)
corrected analysis of danish data gives even worse negative vaccine efficacy against omicron
boriquagato.substack.com/p/addendumcorr…
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in israel the recently vaccinated account for the largest share of positive tests by a large margin
at the top of thread i linked to ontario data. at the time it didn't show that vaccd had a higher rate of infection (my error), just that cases were accelerating sharply among that cohort. today the same source *does* show fully vaccd overtaking the unvacced infection rate. Image
in Ontario both partially and fully vaccd case rates have overtaken the unvaccinated case rate Image
same tend in Alberta. the fully vaccinated case rate has just overtaken the unvaccinated case rate.
negative efficacy observed for 2 doses of astrazeneca vaccine
in Florida vaccination rate is correlated with infection rate
vaccination rate in European countries is correlated with infection rate
vaccination rate in California is correlated with infection rate
in new york and new jersey vaccination rate is correlated with infection rate
this study examined 68 countries (selected on the basis of adequate data records) and found a positive correlation between vaccination rate and infection rate.
ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/labs/pmc/artic…
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Iceland update. 'fully vaccinated' case rate now in the lead by a very large margin.
the rate of infection among 18-29 year olds in the UK is now higher for the vaccinated than for the unvaccinated. true unvaccinated rate is believed to lie between the NIMS and ONS figures.
see above thread for more detail. according to NIMS data all age groups in the UK, with the exception of <18, are now seeing higher infection rate among vaccinated.
more on UK data 'the more you test regardless of symptoms, the more you find it. This would be why it emerges so strongly in pre-Christmas testing, when millions of healthy people got tested to know whether it was safe to see their elderly relatives'

eugyppius.substack.com/p/with-omicron…
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the 2 vaccine doses group are seeing the highest infection rate in Germany.
ontario data has been updated including age group breakdowns running into january. for the age groups between 12 and 59 the fully vaccinated group has the highest case rate. thanks @C_Ups17 for the heads up. Image
previous stats in this thread have dealt with negative (and steeply declining) vacc efficacy against infection only.

latest gov data from Scotland shows negative vacc efficacy (for 2 doses) for infection *and also* for hospitalization and death.
nakedemperor.substack.com/p/complete-vac…


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for all age groups older than 18 in the UK, the vaccinated currently have a significantly higher infection rate. about double the unvaccinated rate.
source assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…
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really interesting UK graph. you can see the apparent waning and negative efficacy for the vaccines early in the series but that trend accelerates very sharply for all groups when omicron arrives.
Israel is highly vaccinated - more now than ever - yet when facing the mildest variant so far it's seeing record numbers of serious cases 🤔
more correlation of vacc use and infection rate in the US
continuing negative vacc efficacy in Scotland for cases, acute hospitalisations, and deaths. 1 & 2 dose groups doing worst.

unvaccd fare best for case rate.
'boosted' (recently dosed) appear best off in terms of avoiding hospitalisation and death
publichealthscotland.scot/media/11318/22…


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negative efficacy becoming *much* more pronounced over time according to UK data
Walgreens data shows all vaccinated categories having a higher rate of infection that the unvaccinated
in US states omicron prevalence correlates with vaccination coverage
vacc efficacy still appears negative in ontario
Pfizer's trial data on young children, submitted to the FDA, showed negative vaccine efficacy; and this is being ignored by both Pfizer and the FDA.
current Israel data. for all age groups, the sub group most susceptible to infection is either 'partially vaccinated' or 'boosted' (never unvaccinated) Image
"2 or more doses of vaccine were associated with a slightly higher probability of reinfection compared with 1 dose or less"

jamanetwork.com/journals/jaman…
those crucial two weeks post injection show up again in a study about BMI and covid

"in the two weeks following the first jab individuals were three to four times more likely to test positive for Covid than their unvaccinated counterparts."

dailysceptic.org/2022/09/28/vac…
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a study commissioned by Moderna finds that 151 days or more after the last dose, 3x vaccinated (Moderna) showed negative efficacy against four out of the five Omicron strains tested.

preprint: medrxiv.org/content/10.110…
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(caveat: as the pandemic goes on, the evidence of negative vcc efficacy will increasingly reflect vcc immune disadvantage *wrt those with natural immunity to the viruses*, rather than wrt immunologically naïve people)
Pfizer, negative efficacy for 5-11 year olds after 4 months
Walgreens data showing the unvaccinated have the lowest rate of infection per test. this implies negative vaccine efficacy for infection
do I need to keep going or is neg vacc efficacy for infection adequately established by now?
'On multivariable analysis, not being “up-to-date” with COVID-19 vaccination was associated with lower risk of COVID-19'
'Risk of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) among Those Up-to-Date and Not Up-to-Date on COVID-19 Vaccination' medrxiv.org/content/10.110…
more vaccine doses -> higher incidence of COVID-19 'Effectiveness of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 Bivalent Vaccine' academic.oup.com/ofid/article/1…
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Danish cohort study finds that vaccine effectiveness against omicron rapidly wanes, and ends up negative. medrxiv.org/content/10.110…
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More from @mormo_music

bitbutter Profile picture
Feb 12
thread of evidence collectively suggesting widespread genocidal ambition among israelis involved with the current campaign
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bitbutter Profile picture
Aug 12, 2023
I totally endorse this. a big failure mode of parents is to be so excited by what their kid is doing that they interrupt what the kid is doing, 'encouragement'. let them do their work! don't make it about you. enjoy it quietly. comment on how much you enjoyed it later when they come to you.
the ability of a kid to play/explore contentedly for long periods is, imo, very virtuous for both kid (future adult) and parent. you probably don't want to disrupt the development of this skill
A+
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bitbutter Profile picture
Apr 2, 2023
"Searle's in a room followin' English instructions to mess with Chinese symbols, but he ain't understandin' it. It's like a computer doin' the same thing. Searle's arguin' against "Strong AI," sayin' computers can't truly think or understand language like us.
Aight, so peeps be comin' up with this Systems Reply to Searle's Chinese Room. They sayin', "Yo, the dude in the room don't get Chinese, but the whole system does." The man's just the CPU, with the whole shebang like databases, memory, and instructions doin' the work.
Kurzweil be like, "Yo, if the system shows it understands Chinese, then it really does." Searle contradicts himself
Read 9 tweets
bitbutter Profile picture
Apr 2, 2023
i don't think humans (as general intelligences) are unconstrainedly creative with regard to modifying that which determines our objectives. which is the relevant thing in this context. and i don't think we should assume AGIs will be either.
claim: our meta objective is to activate reward centers in our brain. creativity has no direct bearing on this. (we are mesa optimizers for hitting that button, to the anthropomorphised dismay of natural selection)
creativity *is* relevant to the ways we figure out how to pursue lighting up that area, and the learning we undertake that modifies under what conditions that area lights up.
Read 14 tweets
bitbutter Profile picture
Apr 1, 2023
theres no need for AI to be alive (whatever is meant exactly by alive) in order to be an existential threat.

it needs 'only': an agentic stance (an easy fix), superhuman cognitive ability, and an optimization target misaligned with human survival.
I don't know what this means. imo an example of CR obscurantism.
this underestimates how alien a mind can be. it contains the assumption that an AGI is going to be like a foreign human. seems unlikely given it shares neither mammalian or even animal evo heritage thttps://twitter.com/DavidDeutschOxf/status/1642148584979066880?s=20
Read 4 tweets
bitbutter Profile picture
Mar 31, 2023
all obviously very smart people. which is why I've tried more than once to understand critical rationalism 😅

but also comes with the most dogmatic sounding rhetoric I've heard outside Christian presuppositional apologetics and objectivists. ngl that's off-putting.
part of the impression of dogmatism, for me, comes from hewing to non-standard meanings for a bunch of important words like problem, knowledge. and imo not adequately meeting non believers 'where they are' with respect to the language
'an everage mind can totally understand critrat given the proper study'

ok. but opportunity cost is a thing. there's a world with lots to do in it. CR is competing for my time with everything else. why should I give it that indulgence when it seems false early on?
Read 6 tweets

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