Thread by @gnomeicide

Record Covid cases again in the UK today, deaths up, hospitalisations rising FAST. Here's the overall picture, I'll go into each trend over the next however many tweets. (1)

Deaths are rising again. Two of the last 3 days have seen big rises. Its not in itself huge yet but its cause for concern (2)

Todays total of 137 is way over trend, sufficient to change things from a weekly fall of 0.3% to a rise of 0.3% after today. (3)

One person died of Covid every 12 minutes and 27 seconds over the last 7 days. (4)

Cases continue to skyrocket. 122,186 today, yet another massive record for positive Covid tests (5)

The rate cases are rising is astonishing, we've shot up to over 700,000 (707,306) over 7 days. Over 100,000 a day on average. 7 days ago it was 477,226. 14 days back it was 344,393. (6)

Remember, we don't count second reinfections in this figure. We aren't getting updates over Christmas and Boxing Day, but thats when we're going to top 12 million total cases in the UK (7)

The proportional rate of rise is slowing slightly, but its still terrifying. Cases are rising at nearly 6% a day, from a dangerously high background level. (7)

There's a biphasic line here, Delta is rising rapidly, then Omicron takes over. (8)

Because vaccines were a bit better against delta, and because omicron cases aren't yet filtering too heavily into deaths, the booster program has been working spectacularly to keep deaths as a proportion of infections falling (9)

Thats why while Delta was rising again, deaths continued to stay level. Vaccines are astonishing. We're gambling that Omicron rising even faster won't push deaths up. But that won't be the first marker telling us things are going pear shaped (10)

Hospitalisations are rising fast now. 1171 annonced today for the 20th of December (data lags here). Thats the highest total since the 19th of February (11)

The most recent date we have data for is the 22nd, where we have Data for England, Wales and Northern Ireland - the total is already just shy of 1300. The rate of hospitalisation is increasing, and fast (12)

Admissions lag behind cases, and cases have just started going stratospheric. Even if, as we believe, Omicron is only about half as likely to cause death as Delta, we'll struggle not to overwhelm the NHS at this rate (13)

And, likewise, its a lot to ask deaths not to rise as they typically do. Cases rising this fast, this high, is a massive risk (14)

The bottom line is simple - cases are increasingly under-reported because of ever more reinfections. They have very much more than doubled with Omicron and they're still rising, fast. Even if its only half as harmful, deaths will rise (15)

...and of course that means pressure on the NHS will increase, it means cases of long-covid will increase. No good will come of this (16)

...we'll see data going grey over Christmas and it'll be the New Year before data settles down properly. By that time, your guess is as good as mine as to where we'll be. (17)

Johnsons mismanagement of Delta led to a massive caseload, and our late and partial action over Omicron is leading to crisis. They say Christmas is a time for miracles. We need one. (fin)