Trolley Problem: You can flip the track and save the lives of 5 adult smokers. But the cost of doing so is one teen becoming dependent on nicotine.
Note: Death is final. Dependence is not (e.g., 2/3rds of teen smokers later quit).
...OK. Let's be more accurate. Teens who vape today may later quit. In fact, nearly 2/3rds of them just did quit (over the past two years).
Adult smoking shortens the lives of 50% of lifelong smokers by ~10 years. So that's not certain either. But death remains final.
So... Why 5 to 1?
4.6 million US adult vapers have quit smoking completely (this does not include smokers who quit with ecigs and later quit vaping). cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/6…
0.5 million US high school students vape nicotine daily.
>2.3 million lives saved vs. 0.5m 'hooked'?
One final note: all studies, even those conducted by anti-vaping researchers, show that 40%-or-less of teens who vape nicotine are dependent (at least one sign of dependence... out of 9-12 standard dependence-related questions).
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Now, let's consider how truth-telling and utility come into conflict...
(3) The dilemma for public health is this: If we tell EVERYONE to reduce their salt intake, this will help the 17% who are salt-sensitive. It may save lives.
But that requires us to violate truth-telling (i.e., it requires public health authorities to lie to 83% of adults).
What happens when a smoker quits by switching to nicotine vapes ("e-cigarettes")?
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(2) when a smoker switches to nicotine vapes
Excess lifetime cancer risk drops >10,000-fold, and is “lower than guideline values defined by EPA and WHO.” 2nd hand vapor risks are obviously even lower than that. sciencedirect.com/science/articl…
(3) when a smoker switches to nicotine vapes
A more conservative estimate found lifetime cancer risk drops “only” 99.5%. Lifetime cancer risk from smoking is 18%. 0.05% of that = 9 in 10,000 (a risk so low it would be difficult to measure). tobaccocontrol.bmj.com/content/27/1/10
1/2 @CJBoyd_Research: No one vapes THC in "ENDS." THC vs. nicotine vapes = different devices.
Your study found “wheezing or whistling” in teens who vaped THC. And it found that teens who vape nicotine ("ecigs") have no respiratory symptoms. None. sciencedirect.com/science/articl…
2/2 So, consider the logic of your statement on @CNN:
"Without a doubt, e-cigarettes are unhealthy and not good for lungs." ["Of course, we couldn't find any harms from nicotine vaping ('e-cigarettes'), but it just stands to reason there must be some."] cnn.com/2021/03/03/hea…
PS: I cannot state strongly enough how the community of millions of adult ex-smokers who use #SaferNicotine to avoid toxic forms of tobacco HATE the term "ENDS."
And how much we hate @CDCgov's insistence that some people vape THC in "Electronic NICOTINE Delivery Systems."
REMINDER
If nicotine vapes ("e-cigarettes") are, in fact, safer than smoking, and help smokers quit, they are (obviously) profoundly different from recreational drugs like alcohol, caffeine & cannabis.
So, what if we just ask ex-smokers who vape how they're doing?
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(2) Among ex-smokers who quit by switching to nicotine vapes, 93% say their health improved. 62% say "improved dramatically." The 5% who said "no change" said "I was healthy to begin with."
Healthier. This is so different from daily screaming headlines.
(3) Among ex-smokers who quit by switching to nicotine vapes ("e-cigarettes"), 90% say they now have fewer and less sever lung infections. We're healthier. Does no one care?
LED candles (tea candles). No combustion. Our passive protest against #COP9FCTC efforts to - literally - kill us and other #SaferNicotine user like us.
LED candles (tea candles). No combustion. Our passive protest against #COP9FCTC efforts to - literally - kill us and other #SaferNicotine user like us.
LED candles. No combustion. Our passive protest against #COP9FCTC efforts to - very literally - kill us and other #SaferNicotine user like us, plus 1.1 billion smokers.
Lets explore @FDATobacco infographics. These data come from @CDCTobaccoFree's National Youth Tobacco Survey.
US teen nicotine vaping increased in 2018 (to twice what it is today), so FDA's infographic focused on the percentage increase. @DrWoodcockFDA
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(2) In 2019, US teen vaping increased again, but it's not clear WHAT they were vaping. @CDCTobaccoFree forgot to ask that in 2019, so much of this "increase" may be THC vaping, not nicotine.
This time there's a graph, huge letters saying "ALARMING," and an absolute number.
(3) By 2020, US teen vaping had dropped 29%. This was before the pandemic hit (before schools closed).
@FDATobacco admits teen vaping dropped 1.8 million.
Daily use is obscured by hiding it under "current use." It's actually only 4.4%.