Getting big decisions right is what guides the country to a better future.
Not arguments over rearranging Whitehall departmental deckchairs👇
Or bizarre No. 10
advisors claiming deep knowledge of things about which they haven’t a clue.
2015 was a Great British Catastrophe. /1.
A Conservative government (elected by minority vote) set about implementing a jaw-droppingly reckless promise.
To take the UK out of the EU if a referendum majority voted for it.
What happened to the £ after that announcement? A crash comparable to the great 2007/8 crisis. /2.
And here’s what happened to growth in UK economic output per person (GDP per capita) compared to the G7 & €-zone. (Greece is included separately as an indicator of the broad-based strength of €-zone growth since the referendum announcement - compared to the UK at least). /3.
But, the “sceptics” gasp, Canada did worse than the UK. That isn’t Brexit.
You’re right. Some places have done even worse than the UK. Rejoice! Sunlit uplands at last.
Also, they cry, that chart only shows up to 2019. What happens afterwards?
This happens afterwards 👇 /4.
Ah, those “sceptics” cry, that’s Covid. And the UK counts GDP differently, exaggerating the drop.
But it isn’t (just) Covid. It’s Brexit. Yes, the drop’s a bit exaggerated, which is why 2021 UK growth figures are exaggerated.
Here’s what the OECD reports: UK worst in G7👇/5.
And, by the way, here’s what that 2015 decision did to UK business investment.
What’s that you say? All these things are coincidences?
I know: come back in 50 years. We’ll be able to see if you’re right.
Meanwhile, stop embarrassing yourself. And wasting the country’s time./6.
Huh, the grumpy “sceptic” continues. But the EU ruined our economy over 40+ years, making it follow a bad “German” & “European” model.
Really? The UK underperformed pre-EEC. Disastrous UK policies in the 2010s created renewed failure.
Germany/ Europe outperformed the UK. /7.
But, replies the “sceptic”, that’s the past. The old models won’t work in future. “Europeans” are too stupid & lazy to work out what will. “We” are clever, agile & will be right this time.
Can’t even predict the past? But claim great foresight?
I’ll pass on that, thanks./8. End
Photo in last tweet: from YouTube,”BananaBoy 1379”.
Chart in tweet 5: OECD, November 2021
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Donald Trump saying “Ukraine is finished” once again, starkly, highlights the question of what the world’s first & only (with the possible exception of Britain), & still remaining, hyper power would do geopolitically under his leadership.
But it isn’t just about Trump.
A 🧵/1.
I’ll be unashamedly Eurocentric.
There’s a broader & deeper story, of course. But Europe is a vital part of it.
The decision the USA has to make, as it did in the 1940s, & repeatedly at intervals after that, is whether it cares about Europe, & if so how much of it, & why. /2.
Does that include all of western Europe? Does it extend to central Europe? And eastern Europe? If so, should Ukraine be part of what the USA cares about (in the 40s that didn’t really play a role, given Ukraine’s status within the USSR)? And if so, how much of Ukraine? /3.
Brexit ripped us out of our $19 trillion GDP domestic market & reduced us to one a 6th of it, thumped our economy, fractured the UK, threw our governance into chaos, & generated perilous geopolitical effects.
And (if you mean it seriously) wildly naive about what actually takes place, legally (although you’d say “in my opinion this is unconstitutional”: good luck!) in the USA.
Still, if we just look at England/UK: yes, there are many concerns. /1.
I never said or, I hope, implied (to a fair, reasonable reader) that there weren’t.
For example (not the subject of my already long 🧵which focused on the way criminal incitement & freedom of expression relate) I personally deeply dislike revocation of citizenship. /2.
But you know that’s a thing in the USA as well, including for natural born citizens.
Involuntary self-revocation (in the guise of “voluntary relinquishment”) of citizenship sounds about as Kafkaesque as it gets.
But there it is, lurking malignantly in the Land of the Free. /3.
Twitter’s full of people trumpeting near zero understanding of English law or of the convictions in respect of the violence of the last 10 days or so.
Nor does the US 1st Amendment mean what many (often Americans) seem to think.
Frustrated? Maybe this will be some use.
A🧵/1.
“Incitement” was an offence under English common law pretty much forever.
In 2008 the Serious Crime Act 2007 replaced common law “incitement” with statutory offences of encouraging or assisting crime.
Incitement in respect of specific statutory offences remains. /2.
“Assisting” means roughly what you probably think it does. But, for clarity, it doesn’t require direct presence at the scene of the crime being “assisted”, or actions which are themselves part of that crime: if they assist the commission of it, that’s a criminal act itself. /3.
I’m not sure we yet know the whole truth about these men’s possible involvement, potentially as inciters to or participants in violence or even terrorism.
There are legitimate questions.
A 🧵/1.
To be guilty of terrorism in England, you don’t have to be physically present (see CPS guidance ⬇️). Similar considerations apply to some other crimes relevant to the current violent disorder.
“I was only tweeting” or “I was just asking questions” are far from safe defences. /2.
For the likes of Mr Musk or Mr Farage one might think their respective, prominent positions could protect them from criminal charges and severe consequences.
One might.
If one thought the AG, DPP, courts, police etc in England to be corrupt, weak or both.