Thread by @Noahpinion

30 years after the fall of the USSR, many post-communist countries are growing much faster than they did under communism.

But some are not, and it's not hard to see why.

noahpinion.substack.com/p/how-are-the-…

The former Warsaw Pact countries are doing great, making steady progress toward catching up with West Europe.

The Baltics took a huge hit from the fall of the USSR and another huge hit from the 2008 financial crisis, but they have bounced back both times and are on a very positive growth trajectory.

(Plus, the Baltics have pretty high levels of income already)

The Central Asian post-Soviet countries have a mixed performance. Kazakhstan looks pretty good. Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, not so much.

But the Caucasus countries and the East European post-Soviet states are doing quite badly.

Why are Georgia, Ukraine, Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Moldova doing so badly?

In a word: War.

These countries all have separatist regions and/or wars with neighbors.

Essentially, the post-communist countries that have managed to join the EU and reorient their economies toward the West have flourished, while those who have been unable to do so, and have been mired in intractable conflicts with other post-Soviet states, have languished.

So that divergence pretty clearly illustrates what's at stake for Ukraine in its current conflict with Russia.

But anyway, the latest statistics should give us great optimism about the transition away from communism. As long as countries can avoid conflict, the natural forces of economic catch-up work like they ought to.

(end)

noahpinion.substack.com/p/how-are-the-…