I'm going to recommend a book if you can get your hands on it called "Information for Everyone: The Applied Materials Story"
This is a pretty good history book on Applied and one of the few I've found.
7/ Given how hot Automotive is right now - I really liked Sensors in Automotive by @junkoyoshida
It's just a really easy to read no-jargon series of interviews that really brought me up to speed on automotive sensors
@junkoyoshida 8/ 400 level classes begin now! I can't pretend like I understood everything - but I did benefit massively from comprehending ~30% of these books.
Computer Architecture: A Quantitative Approach
The most recent editions foreword blew my mind and started me down the rabbit hole
@junkoyoshida 9/ Semiconductor Packaging: Materials Interaction and Reliability
This book is really good for an overview of all the basic packaging types and pros and cons. In a world of flipchip / ball bonding / tcb / and a lot more this one was crucial. I prob need to reread
@junkoyoshida 10/ I wrote my lithography primer of ASML after I read this book. It pretty much taught me a lot about litho from the DUV era + coating / spin process steps.
Fundamental Principles of Optical Lithography: The Science of Microfabrication
@junkoyoshida 11/ HONORABLE MENTIONS! Some of these I know will be good - some I am in the midst of reading - some are only slightly relevant.
(In midst of reading)
Handbook of Silicon Semiconductor Metrology
12/ just a good book anyone with an interest in tech and investing should read
Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital
13/ The Big Score: The Billion Dollar Story of Silicon Valley
To read but Malone was up earlier on the list
END /
There's probably a ton more books to be read over time. I am slowly adding to my list on Goodreads if you want to keep up.
Stupid observation but especially in semis when you gotta truly change your mind a lot, there gets a point where you gotta just flip your opinion if you either feel victory lappy or very confident in your belief. Auto and LSCC is mine like asap. Just GFL.
It always happens, you have a thesis go right, and you get to have like a gloat quarter, and then in your moment of max comfort you gotta get paranoid.
I like everyone else think NVDA numbers next year are too low, but I feel weirdly complacent in that one. Should still work.
When memory went from the worst thing ever to HBM glimmer of hope, you should have flipped max bullish asap. I think I was late to that one tbh.
Also in terms of “no one cares” the IOT names and consumer names super will work from here imo.
Time to time, I flip through Sumco's earnings presentation and I'm like honest this is pretty good. These are forecasts, but their top-down from a wafer perspective is helpful
First is global data traffic
server shipments in millions of units - notice the 2023 down year
this is Sumco's estimates on smartphone wafers - assuming a slower CAGR and ~1.2b units in 23? Seems too high but eh who knows
Q4:
Rev $5.60B vs FactSet $5.51B
gross margin 51% vs guidance of 51%
Q1 Guidance:
Rev $5.3B +/- $300M vs FactSet $5.50B
YoY the Client and Gaming segments are expected to decline, partially offset by Embedded and Data Center segment growth.
Non-GAAP gross margin ~50%
Segments vs consensus - so a slight DC miss, slight client miss, gaming beat, embedded beat
Data Center $1.66B vs FactSet $1.72B
Client $903M vs FS $1.02B
Gaming $1.64B vs FS $1.53B
Embedded $1.40B vs FS $1.33B
guide was kind of tepid, and I thought DC was disappointing. But frankly in this environment, given what INTC has been doing next door this was a great result. Earnings call soon