Thread by @_johnbye

The Omicron wave in South Africa seems to be subsiding. The good news is that although case numbers (and positivity rates) were a little higher than their previous records from July, this caused less hospital admissions and a LOT less deaths.

So how about the UK?

Here in the UK we're now at DOUBLE the previous record number of daily cases (from January 2021), and still rising, certainly outside of London. And that *doesn't* include reinfections, as people are only counted the first time they ever test positive.

coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases?…

This is NOT just down to increased testing (which seems to be constrained by supply rather than demand now). Positivity rates in England are now higher than they were in January, meaning a higher proportion of people being tested have covid.

coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/testin…

Covid patient numbers in London are at almost half of their previous January 2021 peak. And most of them are there because of covid, not just "incidental".

If you're feeling optimistic, it's *possible* the last day of data shows the rise is slowing.

coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/health…

This surge is masked at the national level, as patient numbers were actually falling in many regions before Christmas. Not anymore. Every region is now rising, and it seems likely we could end up with somewhere around 20,000 covid patients nationwide.

coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/health…

But the good news is that (so far, touch wood) this hasn't caused a big increase in patients requiring more intensive care. The number of patients in mechanical ventilation beds is still at around the same level it's been since the summer.

coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/health…

There's also still no sign of deaths rising. There are many differences between our situation and South Africa's, but it looks likely that, as long as our health system holds up, we shouldn't see vast numbers of covid deaths again this winter.

coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths…

All of which seems to support the claim that Omicron (while still serious) is generally milder than previous variants, while vaccines also still seem to be giving good protection against severe illness and death.

Before we all get complacent though, the sheer number of Omicron cases is still causing problems. For example, around 100 children a day sadly ended up in hospital with covid after Christmas. Most of them too young to be vaccinated.

https://twitter.com/jneill/status/1476253591677587456?t=y6IyYC5Qn-UUcgUs5rZpLg&s=19

Meanwhile vast numbers of people being off sick or self-isolating with covid are causing significant disruption in everything from hospitals to hospitality, trains to theatres. It's likely education will be disrupted in the New Year too.

google.com/amp/s/inews.co…