22 PREDICTIONS FOR '22
Categories in order:
🏰 DeFi
🧩 Web3
☠️ Expected Deaths
💸 Venture Capital
Enjoy.
Categories in order:
🏰 DeFi
🧩 Web3
☠️ Expected Deaths
💸 Venture Capital
Enjoy.
🏰 1. Protocol mafias come to life
The mafias are already being built ( $MIM / $SPELL / $ICE)
or ( $FXS / $OHM / $SUSHI)
or ( $TRIBE)
Protocols not part of a mafia will die.
Protocol mafias will require a few building pieces: DEX, stablecoin, lend/borrow, POL to succeed.
The mafias are already being built ( $MIM / $SPELL / $ICE)
or ( $FXS / $OHM / $SUSHI)
or ( $TRIBE)
Protocols not part of a mafia will die.
Protocol mafias will require a few building pieces: DEX, stablecoin, lend/borrow, POL to succeed.
🏰 2. Fixed interest rate thrives by catering to degens
Current fixed interest is just yield farming bs. We'll see the real rise of fixed interest when speculation of degen shit happens (stuff you can't get anywhere else).
This will reflect Fuse's GTM (like OHM)
Current fixed interest is just yield farming bs. We'll see the real rise of fixed interest when speculation of degen shit happens (stuff you can't get anywhere else).
This will reflect Fuse's GTM (like OHM)
🏰 3. DEX verticalization begins.
Each DEX will find their niche, either in assets supported or even asset types. Current landscape will become very specialized.
(I think Uniswap and Balancer will be the biggest DEX's EOY but not strong on this one)
Each DEX will find their niche, either in assets supported or even asset types. Current landscape will become very specialized.
(I think Uniswap and Balancer will be the biggest DEX's EOY but not strong on this one)
🏰 4. The rise of the casual token
@willwarren and the 0x team have been preaching this for ages but the tokenization of everything is real.
2022 will be the start of the 'tokens for everything.' Group chats, social tokens, etc. -- there will be so much casual experimentation
@willwarren and the 0x team have been preaching this for ages but the tokenization of everything is real.
2022 will be the start of the 'tokens for everything.' Group chats, social tokens, etc. -- there will be so much casual experimentation
🏰 5. DeFi apps will rediscover the idea of the App Chain
Initially pitched by the Cosmos team, now DeFi projects will re-discover building their own app chains in pursuit of maximum value accrual.
This likely results in L1's becoming significantly less valuable.
Initially pitched by the Cosmos team, now DeFi projects will re-discover building their own app chains in pursuit of maximum value accrual.
This likely results in L1's becoming significantly less valuable.
🏰 6. Continued DeFi founder burnout
Look how many DeFi 1.0 founders are still active? How many DeFi 2.0 founders will be here in a year?
Individuals in DeFi are not optimizing for the long-term. This is an issue with no signs of slowing.
Look how many DeFi 1.0 founders are still active? How many DeFi 2.0 founders will be here in a year?
Individuals in DeFi are not optimizing for the long-term. This is an issue with no signs of slowing.
🏰 7. Regulatory spotlight is on DeFi
This one is quite obvious. Given the hearing at the end of the year, I expect there to be a clear message from the government: "DEFI IS BAD AND NOT GOOD FOR RETAIL"
We'll fight this but it won't be easy. I hope I'm wrong.
This one is quite obvious. Given the hearing at the end of the year, I expect there to be a clear message from the government: "DEFI IS BAD AND NOT GOOD FOR RETAIL"
We'll fight this but it won't be easy. I hope I'm wrong.
🏰 8. More DeFi native innovation
Squeeth. Everlasting options. Just a peek at what DeFi can offer.
Individuals are finally understanding what is possible and this knowledge will only compound. Plus this industry is literally the smartest people in the world.
Squeeth. Everlasting options. Just a peek at what DeFi can offer.
Individuals are finally understanding what is possible and this knowledge will only compound. Plus this industry is literally the smartest people in the world.
🧩 9. Web3 native social apps continue to flounder
Consumer social is so difficult. Adding the difficulties of web3 make it so hard. I am confident it will happen, just don't think we're there yet.
Consumer social is so difficult. Adding the difficulties of web3 make it so hard. I am confident it will happen, just don't think we're there yet.
🧩 10. Better comms for web3 communities
Web3 is built on the principle of communities. We have shitty tools for talking, facilitating and leading.
This will soon change for all types of communities: DeFi, NFT's, etc.
Web3 is built on the principle of communities. We have shitty tools for talking, facilitating and leading.
This will soon change for all types of communities: DeFi, NFT's, etc.
🧩 11. Porn + crypto goes mainstream
It's a niche that still hasn't been cracked.
Spankchain obviously the OG but given OnlyFan's recent screw ups - there is a displaced audience looking for a solution that crypto can unqiuely solve.
It's a niche that still hasn't been cracked.
Spankchain obviously the OG but given OnlyFan's recent screw ups - there is a displaced audience looking for a solution that crypto can unqiuely solve.
🧩 12. Governance minimization
I expect governance to be shifting away from supporting long-tail decisions (ie "What should Sushi do with XYZ?") and more around a series of pre-defined params (ie Uni's fee switch).
Other decision making will go to distinct pre-defined groups.
I expect governance to be shifting away from supporting long-tail decisions (ie "What should Sushi do with XYZ?") and more around a series of pre-defined params (ie Uni's fee switch).
Other decision making will go to distinct pre-defined groups.
☠️ 13. Death: Prediction Markets
This has happened time and time again. There are too many to name (Augur, Veil, etc.).
They are starting TOO broad. The only way these work is by starting around ONE specific type of market. Regs dont help.
This has happened time and time again. There are too many to name (Augur, Veil, etc.).
They are starting TOO broad. The only way these work is by starting around ONE specific type of market. Regs dont help.
☠️ 14. Death: Multi-chain EVM Thesis
Long L2s (zkSync, Starkware, Optimism, Arbitrum, even Polygon).
The VC's shilling this stuff will probs quitely exit their positions. There is one king and it is Ethereum.
Long L2s (zkSync, Starkware, Optimism, Arbitrum, even Polygon).
The VC's shilling this stuff will probs quitely exit their positions. There is one king and it is Ethereum.
☠️ 15. Death: Liquidity Mining
Protocol owned liquidity changes the game. Now you can optimize for long term sticky liquidity (via Olympus, Tribe, Frax, etc.) instead of short term mercenaries. This creates healthier ecosystems.
Protocol owned liquidity changes the game. Now you can optimize for long term sticky liquidity (via Olympus, Tribe, Frax, etc.) instead of short term mercenaries. This creates healthier ecosystems.
☠️ 16. Death: Ohm Forks
People will stop just forking OHM and deploying it with a swapped reserve currency or just on another mf chain.
BUT individuals will creatively deploy OHM economics onto new and interesting problems.
People will stop just forking OHM and deploying it with a swapped reserve currency or just on another mf chain.
BUT individuals will creatively deploy OHM economics onto new and interesting problems.
☠️ 17. Death: Crypto Insurance.
People aren't looking to go and buy insurance themselves, evidence shows this.
Protocol integrated insurance modules (like Aave Insurance Staking module) will be how people get access to insurance. I expect the Aave model to be replicated.
People aren't looking to go and buy insurance themselves, evidence shows this.
Protocol integrated insurance modules (like Aave Insurance Staking module) will be how people get access to insurance. I expect the Aave model to be replicated.
☠️ 18. Death: Web3-native GameFi
Crypto devs will realize they aren’t game devs. Billions of dollars will flop.
HOWEVER, old organizations that pivot like Square Enix will thrive.
Crypto devs will realize they aren’t game devs. Billions of dollars will flop.
HOWEVER, old organizations that pivot like Square Enix will thrive.
☠️ 19. Death: Social Investment Platforms
This is a complete pipe dream bc bad incentives. Most indivs have 0 desire to share alpha unless they have reason.
Everything would be psyops. 2017 was full of these and we've seen them slow down. I expect this trend to fully die.
This is a complete pipe dream bc bad incentives. Most indivs have 0 desire to share alpha unless they have reason.
Everything would be psyops. 2017 was full of these and we've seen them slow down. I expect this trend to fully die.
💸 20. Venture portfolios will underperform holding ETH/BTC.
The amount of shit getting funding right now is absolutely disgusting.
Discovered web3 a month ago and did CryptoZombies? Here's $10m for your new startup with 100 competitors you don't even know the names of! Gross
The amount of shit getting funding right now is absolutely disgusting.
Discovered web3 a month ago and did CryptoZombies? Here's $10m for your new startup with 100 competitors you don't even know the names of! Gross
💸 21. VC's will build out their own building teams to stay competitive
VC's need to get more competitive.
VC's will arb the safety risk in engineers/legal/etc. who don't want to join early stage startups, employ them and deploy them onto their venture portfolio to assist.
VC's need to get more competitive.
VC's will arb the safety risk in engineers/legal/etc. who don't want to join early stage startups, employ them and deploy them onto their venture portfolio to assist.
💸 22. More and more traditional LP's allocating to liquid positions
These institutions are starting to understand crypto! With that knowledge, they are now ready to deploy and directly buy ETH / BTC / etc. with Coinbase or someone's assistance.
This will be awesome.
These institutions are starting to understand crypto! With that knowledge, they are now ready to deploy and directly buy ETH / BTC / etc. with Coinbase or someone's assistance.
This will be awesome.
This next year is going to be absolutely exciting. Spent 7 days trying to disconnect from DeFi and I've never been more excited to be back.
Let's all change the world, together. Looking forward to reflecting on this thread in a year.
Let's all change the world, together. Looking forward to reflecting on this thread in a year.
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