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sonch Profile picture
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2 Jan, 4 tweets, 1 min read
There is a good point being made here that is worth thinking about even if identifying ‘western modernity’ and/or ‘capitalism’ as the culprit is a cliche misdiagnosis
Implicitly, there is some deal/tradeoff that has been made, wherein large/more-extended family living situations have been largely switched for nuclear-only

was this deal 100% desired, were all its terms entered with open eyes. Or was some of it inadvertent
One factor comes to mind is how the (all-in) tax burden on a salary nowadays is 40-50%, & a big chunk of what that supposedly buys you is a pension (i.e. paying for your aging parents to live elsewhere). Did we ‘choose’/want this attractor in the social-arrangement state space
(Which is just one example illustration of why it’s silly to blame ‘capitalism’ here)

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More from @soncharm

sonch Profile picture
2 Jan
Covid restrictions, to the degree that they actually ‘work’, could be increasing severity/death in the US, if their net-effect is to slow down ‘omicron’ from viral-competing away ‘delta’, meaning ‘delta’ remains prevalent longer, to infect more people. Just saying: could be.
For any given uninfected person, whether their next-exposure to a Wuhan-like virus is ‘omicron’ or ‘delta’ is a random variable X. ‘Covid measures’ ‘working’ could mean the omicron wavefront reaches them later, tilting the odds toward X = delta. Which is bad for them.
This effect could actually be material given the reported ability of an omicron infection to provide some immunity to delta; if so it *really matters*, net-outcome-wise, whether your next exposure/infection is one or the other. It’s not symmetric.
Read 4 tweets
sonch Profile picture
31 Dec 21
'vaccine hesitancy=people have lost trust in experts' is question-begging

why can't it be that a given person does not want to take the vaccine because they do not judge the risk vs. benefit ratio of doing so to be in their favor
'but that's exactly my point, it means they Don't Trust Experts'

no it doesn't, because no actual 'Expert' has actually calculated the risk-benefit ratio for that person. which Expert has done that, for that person? Joe Biden?
where the rubber meets the road, most individuals aren't being told to take the vaccine 'by Experts'. they're being told because their Mayor implemented a 'vaccine passport', or because Joe Biden told OSHA to make a workplace rule.

this isn't an Expert judgment happening.
Read 6 tweets
sonch Profile picture
10 Nov 21
A repeated problem I have with the past 2 years of policy is that policies are hastily thrown in place and then reactively ‘defended’ by Smart People who *invoke the possible existence of an argument for them* rather than actually making that argument.
Lockdowns: wait why is this worth it? what justifies any of it? where can I find anyone putting forth something resembling, say, cost-benefit analysis?

Smart People: ‘well surely Lockdowns are justified *in some cases*. are you sure it *wouldn’t* pass a cost-benefit test?’
Vaccine mandates: wait, these vaccines don’t seem to suppress transmission that much, & to have a more-than-normal side-effect risk profile. What’s the argument for surmounting the presumption against forced medication?

Smart People: ‘surely vaccines can be mandated *sometimes*’
Read 6 tweets
sonch Profile picture
10 Nov 21
more interesting/larger question is why e.g. European health authorities seem able to make these kinds of decisions with some nuance, and even reverse themselves, but in the US it’s all-or-nothing: vax good or vax bad

are US health authorities just more insecure people?
what set of incentives and constraints do US health authorities perceive themselves to face that leads them to make all these decisions as clunky one-size-fits-all things, and then, act like they have to double down endlessly (e.g. on masks) instead of allow for further thought?
The ‘best’ spin I can put on this is that it’s a symptom of the complexity and diversity of the country, that CDC etc. just sees themselves as having very little ‘natural’ authority or sway with a large % of the population, and is very conscious of that, affects their messaging
Read 4 tweets
sonch Profile picture
9 Nov 21
While I roll my eyes at ‘this shouldn’t have been Politicized!’, it is indeed a bad dynamic for all concerned that being full-on Covid-Taliban is somehow coded D and opposing Wuhan-virus maximalism is only coded R.
One immediate problem is that this might lead to some ‘backlash’ style electoral victories for Rs but of course many/most of those Rs will be disappointments who won’t accomplish anything and this will muddle all these issues
It’s also a HUGE missed opportunity for Ds! Ok I am a lifelong righty wacko, but opposing Covid-Talibanism is literally the ONLY thing I care about anymore. I’d vote for the most lefty progressive socialist D you can name if I thought they would be the one to unmask children.
Read 4 tweets
sonch Profile picture
9 Nov 21
Surprised I haven’t seen anyone note just how eminently cancellable Disney’s Little Mermaid cartoon is

It’s coming. Feels like the easiest prediction in the world
why is the crab doing a Jamaican accent? huh?
oh gee what are all these caricatures they gave the sea creatures in some of these dance numbers? what’s that about?
Read 10 tweets

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