Just realised how stupid i've been by promoting $XFT... 🤦♂️
....PLEASE do **NOT** buy $XFT....
The below "marketcap of" pic is *NOT* accurate...
(infact, it's off by a couple million %!)
So, why do I want you to sell so badly? Let me explain.
A quick 🧵
....PLEASE do **NOT** buy $XFT....
The below "marketcap of" pic is *NOT* accurate...
(infact, it's off by a couple million %!)
So, why do I want you to sell so badly? Let me explain.
A quick 🧵
https://twitter.com/MStiive/status/1477588718647394305
The way that the $XFT tokenomics work is that 100% of the future demand for privacy has to fit within the circulating supply market cap of $XFT.
Currently the marketcap is ~$40M (~$10 per $XFT), so someone could burn the entire supply to mint $40M worth of privacy assets....
Currently the marketcap is ~$40M (~$10 per $XFT), so someone could burn the entire supply to mint $40M worth of privacy assets....
but this is not rlly valid, as its unlikely that demand for privacy is just a one time event.... the price of $XFT should increase gradually over time as the demand for privacy slowly gains adoption...
Price appreciation is a function of adoption.
What does this mean for $XFT?
Price appreciation is a function of adoption.
What does this mean for $XFT?
First though, nb that the price of $XFT is irrelevant to the end user who just wishes to mint zkassets...
e.g. $100k of privacy assets can be minted by buying and burning 100k $1 XFT's, or 1x $100k XFT.
There is no economic force function for users, **only through speculation**
e.g. $100k of privacy assets can be minted by buying and burning 100k $1 XFT's, or 1x $100k XFT.
There is no economic force function for users, **only through speculation**
Ok. Lets apply extreme value theory to an example where there is $80M total worth of privacy demand (2x current MC)
Applying extreme Option A;
Price of $XFT increases 2x to $20 by speculators to $80M MC, and then its all burned for zkAssets
$XFT does a 2x.
This is the minimum.
Applying extreme Option A;
Price of $XFT increases 2x to $20 by speculators to $80M MC, and then its all burned for zkAssets
$XFT does a 2x.
This is the minimum.
In the other extreme OptionB;
$39.999M worth of zkAssets is first minted, burning the entire supply but 1 $XFT. The MC is now $10.
Speculators then increase MC, price per $XFT goes to $40M, and then someone burns it for the remaining $40M demand for zkAssets
$XFT does a 4Mio x
$39.999M worth of zkAssets is first minted, burning the entire supply but 1 $XFT. The MC is now $10.
Speculators then increase MC, price per $XFT goes to $40M, and then someone burns it for the remaining $40M demand for zkAssets
$XFT does a 4Mio x
So here we can see the difference between OptionA and OptionB is a massive $39,999,980 per $XFT
a 2,000,000x difference in price!
Q; What was the only difference in the two extremes?
A; Whether or not speculators front-ran the future demand, or were simply playing catch-up.🤔
a 2,000,000x difference in price!
Q; What was the only difference in the two extremes?
A; Whether or not speculators front-ran the future demand, or were simply playing catch-up.🤔
Infact, we can add even more burn steps to optionB to make it even moar extreme.
$39.999M burn @ $XFT $10 burning all but 1XFT
$19.99M burn at $XFT $2M, burning all but 0.1XFT
$19.99M burn @ $XFT $200M.
As steps increase, $XFT price tends towards infinity.
This is the maximum.
$39.999M burn @ $XFT $10 burning all but 1XFT
$19.99M burn at $XFT $2M, burning all but 0.1XFT
$19.99M burn @ $XFT $200M.
As steps increase, $XFT price tends towards infinity.
This is the maximum.
Each time we add a burn step, the end price of $XFT ends up higher for the same original privacy demand
Many steps is actually more realistic as it's likely demand for privacy will continue over many yrs, with users cascading in over time each fighting over the reducing supply!
Many steps is actually more realistic as it's likely demand for privacy will continue over many yrs, with users cascading in over time each fighting over the reducing supply!
So for the example of $80M privacy, applying the extreme values we have somewhere between a 2x and an *infinite* x... (big range I know!)
Logic tells us its unlikely speculators will front-run the ENTIRE FUTURE DEMAND of privacy
Yet this is what "marketcap of" assumes (OptionA)
Logic tells us its unlikely speculators will front-run the ENTIRE FUTURE DEMAND of privacy
Yet this is what "marketcap of" assumes (OptionA)
So let's redo the "marketcap of" $XMR's $4.5B, but with some exponential privacy adoption (we are at the start of the 'S' curve), applying OptionB over 100x mint events..
Here we need to define what % of supply is held by speculators, versus how much is used for its real purpose
Here we need to define what % of supply is held by speculators, versus how much is used for its real purpose
First lets assume 95% of supply is always held by speculators, and users represent just 5%.
That is, no more than 5% of the supply is burned at any step.
If $XFT swallowed the same amount of privacy as $XMR, the token price in this case would be...
$100k+ per $XFT... a 10,000x
That is, no more than 5% of the supply is burned at any step.
If $XFT swallowed the same amount of privacy as $XMR, the token price in this case would be...
$100k+ per $XFT... a 10,000x
Next, lets assume speculators are reduced by just 5% to 90% & 10% users
We are now looking at $XFT price in excess of $10M! Yes, a ONE MILLION x
85% speculators you ask? A cool *$2B* $XFT 🤯
Every small decrease in speculators delivers a MASSIVE increase in future $XFT value!
We are now looking at $XFT price in excess of $10M! Yes, a ONE MILLION x
85% speculators you ask? A cool *$2B* $XFT 🤯
Every small decrease in speculators delivers a MASSIVE increase in future $XFT value!
So what did we learn?
every new $XFT speculator significantly reduces the $$ existing speculators (like me) will make 💵
I want to be part of the 85%, not 95%.
Therefore my dear readers, please sell your $XFT immediately. Every bit counts.
Your sacrifice will be remembered 🔥
every new $XFT speculator significantly reduces the $$ existing speculators (like me) will make 💵
I want to be part of the 85%, not 95%.
Therefore my dear readers, please sell your $XFT immediately. Every bit counts.
Your sacrifice will be remembered 🔥
ps. the amount of people on here with the IQ of a fish is hilarious 🐟
"But I thought you were bullish on $XFT?"
"Should I sell?"
🤣😂
"But I thought you were bullish on $XFT?"
"Should I sell?"
🤣😂
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