10x difference in vax/unvax hospitalization rates appears to continue to be true for omicron? Even if mortality rate is low due to omicron being milder, I’m guessing hospitalization rate implies more long Covid and other issues?
This is turning into one of the great natural experiments of our time.

Including an experiment in limits to persuasion on the persuader side. It’s clear most vaxxers have given up trying to persuade even friends/family.
We’re also seeing a cousin to preference falsification emerge I think… behavior falsification: getting vaccinated on the DL to avoid losing face or something.
If omicron has a natural vaccine on effect, there’s a chance we’re getting off the Scenario Z path and might be actually done by summer. If it turns out future deadlier breakthrough variants blow past omicron natural immunity, we’re not done. $64m question: which is it?
So 4 medium-term scenarios (10y) are based on how well vaccines and mild-variant-immunity work against future severe variants.

1. Both work well, yay. We’re done. Back to normal.
2. Vaccines work well, natural poorly
3. Vaccines work poorly, natural well
4. Both work poorly
One intriguing thing is weird subculture of jokes about “18th booster lol”

I mean… an annual shot is how we already manage flu so unclear why this particular prospect of a recurring shot either cause for alarm over Big State scope creep or jokes.
I’m guessing if we land there, steady state adoption of annual updates will be lower than flu shots, since side effects do seem worse and more annoying.
Depends on if the threat profile is higher enough relative to flu that it becomes an ongoing annual trilemma of unpleasant policies: more mandatory vaccination regime, more seasonal disruptions of school/work/services, or more healthcare surge capacity.
One of the takeaways I got from Pale Rider, which has a primer on human-evolutionary history of flu before getting to Spanish Flu was that flus were much deadlier early in civilization history. And they’re still pretty deadly when they break out (Influenza A variants)
It’s obvious that in the long term, even under Scenario Z, Covid will be a mild endemic disease with occasional severe but limited outbreaks. The question is: how long is “long term”? History of colds and flu are ambiguous on that.
One of the naive oversimplifications of the idea of herd immunity we saw last year was that if you could just surge to 80% infected or something one time, you’re done for good. Virus domesticated, yay. Unfortunately seems more complex, messy, and longer term.
Only true statement: in the long term, Covid will be a mostly mild endemic disease. In the long term we’ll all be dead.

The emerging infectious disease market can remain irrational longer than you can stay immunized.

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More from @vgr

3 Jan
Hate to add complexity to what's already a complex roadmap for @RoamResearch but strikes me that it's an ideal product to Web3ify as early as possible. Wallet sign-ins and token-based access control are kinda brain-dead obvious roads to go down. @Conaw at least put a scout on it
@RoamResearch @Conaw And the block is a natural pre-NFT unit too. Maybe if you own the NFT for a block, you get rights to everything that mentions it or something.
@RoamResearch @Conaw It's also natural to manage syncs and stuff through an internal extremely low-cost L2
Read 4 tweets
2 Jan
It’s al fun and games until you run out of blue pills
The least realistic part of matrix resurrection is the idea that the blue pills are centrally supplied by the matrix. Basic conspiratorial mistake. Blue pills are 80% a home brew cottage industry.
Some bulk raw materials are centrally produced, but most blue pills are home-made to a personal improvised prescription based on a tacit consensus recipe agreed upon by the 3-4 closest people to any individual
Read 8 tweets
1 Jan
Emoji meme quiz. How many can you get? Add more questions in replies if you can think of them.

🤔🦋
🌎👩‍🚀🔫👩‍🚀
🕷👉👈🕷
👩🏻👀👩
👶👨👨‍🦲🤯
🧤👴🧤
I’m getting more useless by the minute
Read 28 tweets
1 Jan
Cobra Kai S4. Here we go.
This show is an example of what I meant by “efficient lean storytelling”

It is almost unbearably efficient. Like pure cocaine. The Hollywood beat-formula machine at its most finely tuned operating on extremely native material.
This show is the most complete and thorough reboot/continuation I’ve ever seen. All the character arcs and unresolved tensions seamlessly continued. The introduction of the Terry Silver character is so smooth it’s like there was no 30-year gap.
Read 8 tweets
27 Dec 21
By analogy to “Big Data is when it’s cheaper to store data than decide what to do with it,” (George Dyson)

you could say

“Big Frontier is when it’s cheaper to experiment with something than determine if it’s a scam”
It’s the flip side of brandolini bullshit asymmetry principle: takes 10x effort to refute it than produce it. The solution is to not try: just cap downsides of buying into bullshit and let the upside from legit things swamp it out.
The biggest risk in civilizational cores is being scammed. The biggest risk in frontiers is not playing.
Read 13 tweets
26 Dec 21
Has anyone experimented with barter nfts? I borrow a cup of sugar from neighbor and issue him a “cup of sugar nft” … solves dual coincidence of needs problems without a fungible currency. Crypto-hardened IOUs.
Solving for neighborhood favor trading liquidity and market-making, not enforceability. Enforcement is always solved with either guns or mutuality (aka iterated prisoners dilemma)
Idea: token representing line “this could just be a database”

Whenever someone says that, you send a screenshot to a minting contract and it issues you a token if you’re first. Proof-of-backlash blockchain 🤔

Other qualifying comments: “crypto uses more electricity than X” etc
Read 7 tweets

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