Christian Goebel Profile picture
Jan 4, 2022 19 tweets 5 min read Read on X
The current situation in Xi'an #Xian illustrates how important it is to “disaggregate China", at least when trying to understand what caused the difficulties that are reported these days. A thread. 1/
When I looked at lockdown coverage on Chinese social media, I made out four broad types of posts:
1) government propaganda on the logistics of delivering food to 13 million people (sometimes reposted with satirical undertones, sometimes with commenters mocking the content); 2/
2) an increasing number of complaints by residents who say they have run out or are running out of food; 3/
3) comments by users who says they’re also from Xi’an but have received food, and on that grounds challenge the second group; 4/
4) comments about the lack of government efficiency and the danger of repression when speaking out. 5/
Especially interesting is the tension between 2) and 3), which can probably be explained by the two groups living in different parts of the city (and not necessarily by group 3 being CCP fanboys and -girls). 6/
Going through Weibo, it becomes apparent that by far the most complaints about lacking food come from Yanta district. There are also quite a few complaints from Weiyang (and, to a lesser degree, the other inner-city districts). 7/
Yanta is Xi’an’s most wealthy and developed, put also most populated district. It is also where by far the most Covid-19 cases were recorded. 8/
As is well known, Xi'an imposed a city-wide lockdown on December 23. Less well-known is that, because of the rapid increase of incidences, a lockdown for parts of Yanta was announced already on December 17. 9/
Shortly after, however, the government opened the up again, much to the bewilderment of some residents. 10/
Apparently, to contain the spread, the authorities imposed the lockdown without first obtaining permission from higher-level authorities. It seems, however, that those authorities were not pleased. Yanta's leaders had to apologise and open up again. 11/
This illustrates a shortcoming of China's hierarchy-cum-competititon approach to local governance: higher levels delegate a lot of responsibilities, but often without also delegating the requisite rights (and finances) to meet these responsibilities, leaving localities 12/
to fending for themselves. If it works out, the centre takes the credit, if it doesn't, local officials are blamed and given the boot. 13/
On the one hand, local officials cannot single-handedly lock down a district, but on the other, they are required to organise food delivery to more than a million residents at short notice. 14/
The bigger a district, the higher the coordination costs. I don’t know how many employees there are in Yanta’s District government, but I doubt that the numbers are proportionate to its size when compared with other districts. 15/
Two days ago, the party secretary and vice party secretary of the district were fired because their pandemic prevention work was allegedly insufficient. I’m not sure if this refers to the increase of infected, the food problem or both. 16/
Notably, the leaders of other inner-city districts with food delivery problems are still in office (unless I missed something). 17/
The whole episode illustrates what always happens in emergency situations like these: the centre blames local officials for problems that are really systemic in nature. There is some local blowback against the sacking, some say the higher levels are to blame. 18/
It would be worthwhile to compare the Wuhan and Xi'an lockdowns by zooming in on the district-, street office and neighbourhood levels. 19/19

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More from @Chri5tianGoebel

Mar 19, 2022
As there is much talk about the Chinese government signalling a change of position on Putin's war of aggression, I put to use a sample of Weibo posts that contain the keywords "Ukraine"(乌克兰) or "Russia"(俄罗斯), collected since the China-Russia joint statement on Feb 4.
I was curious how Chinese official sources refer to the war, and if the terms have changed. To answer this question, I singled out government- and media accounts from localities all over China based on their screen names and descriptions.
Altogether, I found 53.018 posts between Feb 4 and March 17. After excluding duplicates, the sample contains 24.501 posts. I then ordered all the words in the segmented corpus by their frequency, went through the list and selected those that refer to the war.
Read 16 tweets
Mar 18, 2022
They actually might believe themselves in this position. They haven’t given Russia any hard support and can gradually or suddenly increase the pressure. The more crucial their intervention becomes, the better for them, they might think. But there are two problems. First,
this will be a hard sell domestically after they whipped their nationalists into a frenzy. Hence, maybe, the signs of a changed media narrative. Second, their moves reveal their unwillingness, and perhaps even inability, to act as a responsible world power, and their adherence to
dog-eat-dog neorealism. They might profit in the short run, but are losing Europe. They probably count on the spinelessness of European leaders, but the public won’t forget so easily. Public pressure to disengage from dictatorships is mounting. Xi is increasingly seen as
Read 4 tweets
Dec 9, 2021
As someone who has studied government responsiveness in China for almost a decade, I would like to address some of the points made in this thread. 1/n
First of all, are 12345 hotlines, and their online counterpart, mayor's mailboxes, in principle, a good thing? Absolutely! Should we have them in Europe? Definitely! Are they in any way related to democracy? No. 2/n
Chinese citizens do not have a right to a 12345 hotlines. They are also not subject to public accountability. They are an offer the government can rescind at any time. And: consultation does not equal democracy. 3/n
Read 16 tweets
Dec 8, 2021
How fast it all happend. Dec 6, 1:25pm Weibo account with 39k followers posts this video. 11:01pm, Sanxing Township issues a statement on WeChat, which Dianshi News shares 1 hour later on Weibo. Other news agencies follow, lots of posts through the night. Haimen District ImageImage
publishes its statement on Weibo at 5:15 on December 7, People's Daily Online reacts to this only 15 minutes later. Many posts yesterday, apparently there was another elderly sugarcane seller whose merchandise was seized. 200 citizens organised to help elderly sell sugarcane.
I am sure there is more to this fascinating story, which is also covered in a lot of traditional news outlets, often with interesting background information on the company and its relationship with the township government. I find this so fascinating because every day,
Read 4 tweets
Jul 2, 2020
Current developments have implications on China-related research that go far beyond the self-censorship debate that had people at their throats a couple of months ago. Then, the stakes were losing access to China. Now, the stakes are being detained, possibly for a very long time.
Of course, not many scholars have been detained so far (and not so many seem to have lost access, for that matter), but what matters are the signals and the precedents.
Maybe the CCP does not intend to systematically arrest scholars for what they say and write about China, but maybe it does, and it is this ambiguity that affects how we research China, and how our research will be interpreted by others.
Read 11 tweets

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