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Tacos and Airplanes Profile picture
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5 Jan, 4 tweets, 1 min read
How will we see the US' attempts to maintain economic and technology hegemony via sanctions in 20 years time (2040?...)?

About as far away from today as 9/11.
PRC is relatively well positioned to withstand US aggression, as it has a large internal market with high levels of human capital, and full sovereignty.
Compare that to say, Japan in the 1980s, or the USSR/post-Soviet Russia, which were dependent on outsiders for markets and hi-tech/aid (ie USSR constantly sought Western/Japanese tech b/c it was so backwards domestically), respectively.
Additionally, PRC is not compromised internally by US control that impedes sovereignty, like 1980s Japan, which was a vassal of the US in security terms.

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More from @blob_watcher

Tacos and Airplanes Profile picture
6 Jan
I'm increasingly of the belief that the US will likely never engage in a great power war ever again (so no intervention against China over Taiwan), unless its territory is directly threatened.

Instead, it'll just try and sanction/economically coerce its opponents.
The chance of direct US-Russia war is almost zero.

If Russia moves even on a NATO country like Estonia or Lithuania, it'll likely be a punitive strike lasting only a few hours/days before they pull back, not giving the US enough time to respond, and throwing NATO off balance.
The US response will, predictably, be to sanction and totally embargo Russia rather than a symmetrical punitive military response.
Read 6 tweets
Tacos and Airplanes Profile picture
6 Jan
Lol at all these nevertrump and resistance lib types talking about impending violence and civil war apocalypse in the US.
If you actually, genuinely believed what you were writing, you would be buying some AR lower receivers and preparing your spouse and children on survival skills, and fortifying your house.
But no. Instead, you just write some weak op-eds and spend all day crowing about how illiberal Trumpers are. But hey, at least you dunked on them on Twitter. Good job!
Read 4 tweets
Tacos and Airplanes Profile picture
5 Jan
NYC Mayor Eric Adams deserves to be criticized for supporting back-to-the-office schemes.

But criticism against him for saying that certain workers have higher ability than others, and that not everyone is suited to an intellectually demanding job, is totally misplaced.
Yes it's true: Ability is not distributed evenly, but rather according to the normal curve.

Serving food doesn't require the intense mental effort of being a physician or some complex engineering task.

By definition, half the population is below average.
The idea that coal miners can just be retrained and become coders totally misunderstands the fact that intellect is just not evenly distributed. That's why these schemes go nowhere.

Blame God. Or Evolution. But Adams was just making an honest assessment of reality.
Read 5 tweets
Tacos and Airplanes Profile picture
5 Jan
Criminal that the finance industry, and industry which can be completely run from home via broadband connected laptops, is so obsessed w/ returning to the office.

Commuting imposes such huge environmental and time costs on workers and society.

wsj.com/articles/omicr…
The USG/states need to force WFH for computer jobs like banking or software engineering by imposing a severe and punishing transportation tax on employers; that would incentivize them to have permanent WFH.

That would be a good step towards a less transportation-centric future.
Unfortunately, people like new NYC Mayor Eric Adams are probably in bed with commercial RE developers, so they encourage a return to the office, despite the huge carbon emissions, immiserating effect on workers, and traffic jams and congestion that it creates.

Idiot.
Read 4 tweets
Tacos and Airplanes Profile picture
5 Jan
Always some Asian. They may have met when he was in the military, in which case she is likely Japanese or Filipina.

The typical gf of a white racist is Asian. Some have Chinese or Japanese wives.

But SE Asian wives, especially Filipina and Thai, are the most common.
It's a real life running gag at this point.
There is an exception to this rule though: While most modern white racists in the 21stC have these colonial looking Asian gf/wives, most 20thC white racists seemed to have a taste for black women.
Read 5 tweets
Tacos and Airplanes Profile picture
17 Dec 21
The EU suffers from a real dilemma regarding its industrial future.

The US wants to harvest high end EU industries for itself, in the post-2016 era of competition w/ China. And have US companies be the only external high tech players in Europe.
If the EU consents to all this, this is a surefire recipe for total de-industrialization.

So the EU needs be able to continue to export to other large markets. And the only one that is large and still has capacity to grow is China.

Yet, EU trade w/ China is highly politicized.
Human rights disputes and the hidden geopol factor of the US constantly intervene, as do moralistic EU domestic politics.
Read 6 tweets

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