Thread by @assemmayar1

Afghanistan's drought will end: 🧵
Despite early warnings of drought extension to 2022 based on seasonal predictions, recent heavy snow has changed the precipitation deficit observed since the start of the wet season in October 2021. If predictions of the next months...1/13

...come true, the severe drought in Afghanistan will be over.
In addition to the observation of experts, international organizations have warned about the continuation of drought to 2022. Why have such changes occurred? How it affects the next months’ precipitation? 2/13

The 2021/2022 wet year began dry. Precipitation deficit from October till mid-December was significant, raising fears of drought extension to 2022. 3/13

https://twitter.com/assemmayar1/status/1469991893413023748

But long-term forecasts' accuracy is less. Predictions in October 2021 forecasted a winter comparable to that of 2021. @climatesociety published new predictions on 16 Dec 2021. Analyses prior to that were based on Nov forecasts. 4/13

https://twitter.com/assemmayar1/status/1451492060528365569

In the Pacific Ocean, #LaNina has not developed as expected. The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), which affects weather on a weekly to monthly timescale, intensified in Dec 2021, bringing warmer water waves to the ocean's surface. 5/13
severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/l…

It resulted sea surface temperature to -0.7 (below -0.5 a threshold for #LaNina). This region's temperature was -1.4 in 2021.
6/13

This attenuation of temperature changed precipitation balance for the region. Prediction published in Dec 2021 forecasted normal precipitation for the winter. However, the past few days’ snow was above normal due to MJO. 7/13

Furthermore, MJO's effect will continue. Next week there will be less precipitation (only in south), but the week after will have above normal precipitation, leading January's cumulative to above normal level. 8/13

Weather systems predict normal amount of precipitation for Feb and Mar 2022. Precipitation for April & May are also predicted normal or above normal, which is crucial for rain-fed agriculture in the spring. 9/13

As the snow deficit is almost rectified, if predictions of the next months come true, which most probably will, there will be no drought in 2022 & Afghanistan will have a normal water year. Probability of an El Nino, which results in a very wet year, is very less. 10/13

Normal precipitation lead to better crop & orchard yields, resulting economic relief for some farmers. Over production of watermelon in western Afghanistan is expected. However, market restrictions for famers and exporters will be a major problem. 11/13
tolonews.com/business/farah…

Humanitarian aids should be provided to drought affected people in rural areas till the next harvest season. Furthermore, poor families in urban areas with no source of income will also require nourishment. 12/13
afghanistan-analysts.org/en/reports/eco…

To prevent repetitive drought-induced emergencies, focus on longer term solutions is required. To address this, climate & disasters related funds should not be restricted by sanctions. Further, investment on small-scale water-related projects should be prioritized. 13/13