🧵1/ The #energycrisis in the UK and EU is complex, but that hasn’t stopped people dusting off decade-old arguments that fracking would lower gas bills in the UK – with the insinuation that people opposed to it have contributed to the cost of living crisis and fuel poverty...
2/ Check the feeds of wiser people like @ELPinchbeck and @helencrobertson for the details on now. But before we get dragged into a full-on culture war, it is worth repeating why claims proved wrong a decade ago are still wrong today. So, back to 2010... (H/T @heatpolicyrich)
3/In 2010 the idea that the US shale experience could be replicated in the UK had already been put down by many experts. No-one really believed it. The list of reasons was long – but the different market structures in the UK/EU vs US is important here for gas prices and bills
4/As a grad consultant in 2010/11 I presented at events on supply chain opportunities, finance, and oilfield service markets: “What does it mean for FLNG?” “Does Europe have enough land drilling rigs? ”What drilling/production additions are needed with shale well decline rates?”
5/Any talk of UK shale lowering prices was still limited, and mainly by consultants or fringe industry people - who in time stopped being invited to speak (anyone else remember the Frack Master, who got a 15-year jail sentence?)
6/But that UK fringe was actually the fracking core, with small, AIM-listed, companies driving the narrative of high shale production, lots of jobs, and lower gas prices. But this was almost entirely based on pointing at the US and saying: “it happened there, so why not here?”
7/ In late 2011 Cuadrilla was still making claims about lower gas bills, despite it not being a serious idea. But by November 2013 Cuadrilla’s chairman Lord Browne admitted that unless there is a “gigantic amount of gas, it is not going to have material impact on price.”
8/ Our 2012/13 @UKERCHQ / @uniofleicester project concluded: US shale will likely have a huge impact on global gas markets; but any UK shale would have only a marginal impact on markets/bills (& net supply). And US shale will impact the UK, whether or not shale is developed here
8/At this time David Cameron was still claiming “fracking has real potential to drive energy bills down” amidst the protests at Balcombe in the summer of 2013. But soon after (e.g. Lord Browne) Cuadrilla and co. changed tack to focus mainly supply security and carbon emissions
9/ So why does this matter now? Because it remains so attractive for shale proponents, politicians and talking heads to give a simple *gas* solution to a complicated *energy* problem. Lots of things have led us to this position – none of which can be solved by fracking
9/At this time David Cameron was still claiming “fracking has real potential to drive energy bills down” amidst the protests at Balcombe in the summer of 2013. But soon after (e.g. Lord Browne) Cuadrilla and co. changed tack to focus mainly security and carbon emissions
10/ So why does this matter now? Because it remains so attractive for shale proponents, politicians and talking heads to give a simple *gas* solution to a complicated *energy* problem. Lots of things have led us to this position – none of which can be solved by fracking.
11/ The arguments for fracking our way out of a crisis have not evolved since the 2010s – however the world of energy policy, markets, and supply have moved on a lot. And while the world is not the same as then, the misapprehension that fracking can lower bills remains just that
12/12 Since 2010 my hairline has receded – but sadly, it has not made a comeback this winter like the zombie shale gas arguments have. I do hope those will also recede in time, though. END.
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