Thread by @nimkef

6 Jan 2022

On January 5 Kazkh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev stripped former Kazkh President Nursultan Nazarbayev of his role as head of the State Security Committee, the successor to the Soviet-era KGB.

intellinews.com/amid-kazakhsta…

That same day a private plane of Nazarbayev's daughter Dinara and her husband, oligarch Timur Kulibayev, reportedly departed for Kyrgyzstan, with other Nazarbayev family members possibly on board.

Alexey Venediktov, editor-in-chief of Echo of Moscow radio, reported the plane's departure, though it was unclear if the ex-president himself was on board, said a Russian Foreign Ministry source.

Nazarbayev was reported as ready to leave Kazakhstan “for medical treatment”.

A bne IntelliNews correspondent in Almaty said there was speculation that Tokayev was also replacing other key officials with loyalists and that the outcome of the turmoil might even eventually be described as a "coup".

He noted that the TV channel run by Nazarbayev’s daughter Dariga, KTK, had gone off air and stopped broadcasting. Nazarbayev’s website, elbasy[.]kz, was, meanwhile, down on the morning of January 6.

Whatever reshaped Kazakh establishment emerges out of the carnage presently seen in the country may lick its lips at the prospect of taking over Nazarbayev and Kulibayev assets.

4 Jan 2022

The drastic price increase in Zhanaozen for liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), used by many as a cheap alternative to gas -- sparked a movement that has brought people out to demonstrate across the country in support of the Zhanaozen protesters.

rferl.org/a/kazakhstan-f…

It was in that city where at least 16 demonstrators were shot dead by police on 16 Dec 2011, after months of strikes and protests by employees of Kazakhstan’s oil sector.

Protesters who demonstrated on New Year's Day said the price of one liter of LPG in Zhanaozen was some 50 tenge for much of 2021, but started rising toward the end of the year to somewhere around 79-80 tenge (about $0.19), then jumped to 120 tenge (about $0.27) on January 1, 2022

Abbat Urisbaev is a member of the provincial "maslikhat" (council) in Mangystau, where Zhanaozen is located.

Urisbaev said the increase is painful since “90 percent of the residents of our province use [vehicles] that use liquefied gas.”

There were more labor strikes in Kazakhstan in 2021 than in 2018-2020 combined as noted in an article in The Diplomat and on the Oxus Society’s Central Asia protest tracker.

Most of the strikes in 2021 happened in Mangystau Province and many of them took place in Zhanaozen.

When Tokayev ousts Nazarbayev as chairman of the Security Council, we must raise our eyebrows. That is real power. Does Tokayev possess it?
4. Worse, when Tokayev ousts former PM Massimov he has challenged much of the Nazarbayev establishment

https://twitter.com/anders_aslund/status/1478934369444237312?s=20

24 Dec 2021

YEKATERINBURG, December 24. /TASS/. Russia’s Central Military District will hold 14 joint exercises of various levels with its partners from the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), Military District Commander Alexander Lapin said.

tass.com/defense/1380333

In an interview with the Krasnaya Zvezda newspaper published on Friday, the official previewed "14 joint exercise of various levels within the CSTO framework."

"The geography of maneuvers will span to training ranges in Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. The Unbreakable Brotherhood - 2022, a joint exercise with CSTO peacekeeping forces planned to involve troops from 6 countries, will be the most important among them" he said

The Central Military District includes the Volga Area, Urals and Siberia, and comprises the territory of 29 Russian administrative regions.

It also includes several facilities abroad, including Russian military bases in Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, as well as military units on the territory of Kazakhstan. The district’s headquarters are located in the Urals city of Yekaterinburg.

23 April 2021

But the simple patriotic challenge took on a new tone after Vyacheslav Nikonov, a member of Russia’s major party, United Russia, and deputy of the Russian State Duma made a notorious comment.

thediplomat.com/2021/04/is-nor…

Nikonov claimed that Kazakhstan had never existed before as a state and moreover, was not settled prior to the arrival of the Russian Empire. In addition to this, he stated that the “territory of [modern] Kazakhstan was a great gift from Russia and the Soviet Union.”

The claim found support among other Russian politicians nostalgic about the imperial past, who demanded that the lands of Northern Kazakhstan must be returned to the Russian Federation.

Although it might sound like a brutal violation of mutual respect for territorial integrity between long-time allies, this is far from the first time Russians have agitated at Kazakhstan’s edges.

At the time of the breakup of the Soviet Union, Kazakhstan was the only state of the constituent republics where the titular ethnicity was a minority. As of 1989, ethnic Kazakhs constituted only 39.6% of the republic’s population, while ethnic Russians made up 37.4%.

The ethnic composition of the region had begun to diversify with the penetration of the Russian Empire into the Kazakh steppe in the 18th century.

That process continued with the establishment of the Soviet Union in 1922, its subsequent resettlement policies during World War II particularly, and the devastating aftereffects of collectivization, namely a famine that massively decreased the indigenous Kazakh population.

The migration of ethnic Russians was especially pronounced in Northern Kazakhstan, which to this day continues to have a significant population of ethnic Russians. This is most evident in the populations of big cities.

The population of ethnic Russians constitute:

59.28% in Petropavlovsk
41.11% in Pavlodar
41.88% in Kostanay
29.41% in Kokshetau

This creates conditions for strained ethnic relations between Kazakhs & Russians & separatist sentiments among ethnic Russian nationalists

The first attempt to annex Northern Kazakhstan occurred shortly after independence. In 1992, some politicized ethnic Russian communities united with previously militant Cossacks, who made claims to the land in Northern Kazakhstan and desired to become an autonomous republic

The attempt fizzled, and since then Kazakhstan’s First President Nursultan Nazarbayev carefully crafted a nation-building policy branded under the name of “unity” — but at least in part aimed at keeping the ethnic Russian community loyal and obedient.

In 2014, after the annexation of Crimea, Kazakh officials became especially alarmed and launched several nation-building programs that were aimed at reinforcing the centrality of Kazakh ethnic national identity and diminishing Russian and Soviet legacy and influence.

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s answer to a student’s question pertaining to the “Ukrainian scenario” occurring in the northern regions of Kazakhstan was to claim that “Kazakhs had no statehood” before the Soviet Union — that only worsened the situation.

As many experts have pointed out, before the Ukrainian crisis unfolded, many Russian political figures & historians repeatedly stated Ukraine never had a separate state & was never a separate entity from Russia; thereby preparing the public w/ the narrative supporting annexation

In Kazakhstan, Putin’s comment caused ethnic turmoil throughout 2014 and 2015. Three ethnic Russian Kazakh nationals were jailed for expressing nationalistic and separatist views and/or directly agitating on social media to “return lands to Russia.”

Inspired by this idea, dozens of closed groups emerged, promoting and agitating for separatism.
After new laws punishing incitement of inter-ethnic conflicts, several nation-building programs & harsh jail sentences, the pressure fell and the topic slowly died away again

There's a new wave of territorial claims and perceived threats to Kazakhstan’s territorial integrity. Recent comments regarding Northern Kazakhstan have been persistent and uncensored by the Kremlin and are also coming from and supported by prominent figures in Russia’s govt

But this time, instead of the Kazakh government responding, we are seeing Northern Kazakhs themselves uniting and demonstrating their ethnic identity with the claim that they are the true owners of the land.

For them, the “Russian Question” is especially sensitive and critical. In the North Kazakhstan region, ethnic Kazakhs make up only 35.03% of the population, while ethnic Russians constitute 49.53%.

In the region’s biggest city, Petropavlovsk, ethnic Kazakhs make up 29.99% of the population compared with ethnic Russians at 59.28%. In this respect, the “Russkiy Mir” (“Russian world”) has dominated public discourse in this particular area.

In many ways, the region is far removed from Nur-Sultan and is much closer to the Russian Federation, not only literally but also figuratively. The presence of Russian TV and media is vast, cross-border cultural and family ties are profound, and migration is a frequent occurrence

With Russian culture so dominant in the region, and a lack of active civil society movements among local ethnic Kazakhs, the community’s response was unprecedented. Locals said they became active “because of that Russian deputy” and that “we need to protect our land.”

It might seem to be a good sign from the civil society development perspective, since we are seeing the rise of civil consciousness, development of the ability to unite around a cause, and a firm public statement regarding their ethnic heritage.

The rise of ethnic nationalism & disputes over “ownership” (cultural, historical, or legal) in such a diverse region is a slippery slope. As happened during Russia’s actions against Georgia and Ukraine several years ago, some chatter now in Russia about Kazakhstan being next

Considering that Russia’s favorite policy pursuit is to instigate a “rally-around-the-flag” moment when times are tough domestically, turmoil regarding Alexey Navalny & growing public discontent, it raises the question of how far Russia wants to go with Kazakhstan in this regard

https://twitter.com/Rguaraka/status/1479008292823314438?s=20

https://twitter.com/DrAlakbarov/status/1478727099410272258?s=20

Interesting

“The cause of the chaos in Kazakhstan are not protests but a desperate power struggle between the [political elite] clans,” @dan_ferghana writes, pointing towards current Pres Tokayev vs Nazarbayev's nephews Samat Abish and Kairat Satybaldy

https://twitter.com/trbrtc/status/1479579854655864834?s=20

RUMINT: Nazarbayev's nephew, former first deputy chairman of the KNB (Kazakh KGB), Samat Abish may have been arrested in Almaty

Nazarbayev's nephew, often described as the son Nazarbayev never had, Kairat Satybaldy, may have been arrested in Dubai

https://twitter.com/the_ins_ru/status/1479615072850829315?s=20