Thread by @BillHanage

Why are we not all chilled given vaccines work against severe illness even with omicron? Well in the US (and pretty much anywhere) we are yet to see infections of large numbers of older people, and healthcare is already stretched. Here goes 1/n

https://twitter.com/BillHanage/status/1479574053807697920

This makes the point at least as well as I could

https://twitter.com/baym/status/1479568637694513156?s=20

2/n

Right now close to 10% of folks in my neighborhood are infected. What this means is both good and bad

https://twitter.com/BillHanage/status/1479574053807697920?s=20

3/n

The bad: for those who have not had the benefit of vaccination (whether due to issues of vaccine access or choice), the force of infection is increasing and you are more likely to get infected and the consequences are much more likely to be bad than if you were vaccinated 4/n

This is NOT mild for the unvaccinated. It is serious and fast, so that you are more likely to wind up in a serious condition, in a hospital that’s already full to the brim due to covid and also all the other stuff that healthcare has to handle 5/n

The good: those who have been vaccinated, and especially those boosted, will likely suffer a short mild illness. This is great. Vaccines work. There are enormous numbers of mild infections, if only we can stop them transmitting to those at risk 6/n

Because omicron is so fast, we don't actually know yet exactly how it will impact older age groups, but it is safe to assume it will be worse than equivalent younger ones, the older age groups are those starting to get infected now 7/n

Given the expected sharp spike of omicron, it is *crucial* to stop infections in the older age groups now, when healthcare is already stretched 8/n

for the great majority omicron is not an individual risk, but allowing it free rein will crash your hospitals regardless. The failure to communicate that clearly is putting the minority who remain vulnerable at far greater risk 9/n

I want to be clear - this is not forever, it is the next few weeks. Try to cut the transmission chains however you can. Every infection you stop, is helpful 10/end