It seems that in Kazakhstan we are witnessing a textbook example of the loss of independence. Which is very similar to how Ukraine (the Hetmanate) was gradually absorbed by the Muscovy in the 17th c.
Although Ukraine recognised Tsar as its ruler in 1654, it didn't immediately turn to a Muscovite province. Cossacks considered their relations with Tsar to be equal and their fealty conditional. They literally presented a list of conditions to the Tsar, shocking the Moscow envoys
So they didn't intend to turn into slaves, холопы, of the Tsar but rather viewed him as their constitutional monarch alike the Polish-Lithuanian one. And yet, they were very quickly reduced to холопы. How did it happen?
The most important reason was the following. The Cossacks' leaders - казацкая старшина - made two mutually exclusive demands to Moscow.
- Don't interfere to our internal affairs
- Defend us from our internal enemies
Theoretically Hetmans and Colonels wanted independence. But in practice they repeatedly asked Moscow for protection from the political rivals and revolts of lower classes. However, it is logically impossible to rely on someone's protection and be independent from the protector
The architect of Moscow-Ukrainian alliance Khmelnitskii used to be somewhat independent. But his successor hetman Vygotski directly asked Tsar to send garrisons to Ukrainian towns 'to extirpate revolts'. So he basically used Muscovite army as policing force
By the times of hetman Bruhovetskii Ukraine was turning into the province. He asked the Tsar for bodyguards to his personal protection from potential assassins
To sum up. The absorption of Ukraine by Muscovy was not only the initiative of Moscow but also the initiative of Ukrainian leadership. They asked Moscow to send them garrisons, and personal guards for the rulers. Basically they asked for protection against their own subjectscts
Relying on foreign armies as your internal policing force - that's how you lose independence. When ruler A asks ruler B for 'armed men', he might not lose his country's sovereignty de jure, but he certainly loses its de facto. Especially if he asks again and again
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Many admired bravery of Kadyrov who personally went to Ukraine and posted a lot of cool photos from the frontline. Consider this: Kadyrov is praying having put his gun lays nearby. It's a shame we see a Pulsar gas station nearby. So it's not Ukraine. It's Russia🧵
Pulsar gas stations belong to the Russian oil company Rosneft (Роснефть) which is led by Igor Sechin, Putin's close aide. Russia has lots of these gas stations but there are none in Ukraine. Kadyrov took tough-guy-photos in Russia and claimed he did it in Ukraine
So is Kadyrov lying? Consider Peskov's answers on a press conference. When asked if Kremlin knows about Kadyrov's visit to Ukraine, Peskov responded:
- No, we don't have such data (=he didn't go there)
Peskov also clarified that Kadyrov "didn't directly say he went to Ukraine"
I see three plausible scenarios for the Russian future:
1. North Korea 2. Imperial Reboot 3. Jubilee
Since Ukraine is resolved to fight, the choice of a Russian historical track ultimately depends upon the resolve of the West. Today I'll outline the North Korea scenario 🧵
If the West deescalates and Putin stays in power, he will become much stronger and Russia will become more like North Korea. You shouldn't delude yourself, there's no way back to February 23. As a result of "deescalation", Russia won't return to the status quo
If the West deescalates, it means Putin was absolutely, 100% right to rush Z and all who doubted him were idiots. When Putin decided to fight, officials such as Foreign Intelligence Service chief Naryshkin hesitated. They doubted his decision. Victory will dispel any doubts
1. Ukrainian hackers post Russian casualty numbers on Russian official websites and social media accounts. That's not bad. A better idea - post instructions for sabotage. For example, if you burn trackside relay cabinets, it will lead to huge delays🧵
Russia is heavily reliant on railways. Russian autoroutes have always been of low quality (with few exceptions) and thanks to sanctions Russia will face difficulties with producing and repairing trucks. Railways sabotage will heavily undermine logistics and supply of Z-operation
Railways sabotage in Belarus is already so widespread that it's severely undermining supply of a northern Russian Z-army. In Russia it's less common. And yet, that's exactly what's happened yesterday - someone attempted to blow up a relay cabinet with a handmade bomb near Kaluga
Russia's falling. Old sanctions of 2014 sabotaged development of new innovative weaponry. New sanctions of 2022 are undermining Russian military efforts, destroying its technological chains and communications lines, thus breaking country apart🧵
Western analysts greatly overestimate the robustness of Russia. Russians themselves are now talking about the imminent end of this state. Consider a Peskov's slip of tongue: "Special Operation launched to get rid of Russia"
End of Russia - that's what is on the table right now. Consider this talk show of Solovyov - top Putin's propagandist. Their point is - *any* treaty Russia signs with Ukraine will mark its defeat. That gonna be beginning of the end, not of Putin's regime but of Russian state
Captain Farid Chitav and 11 his subordinates from Russian National Guard (Росгвардия) refused to go to Ukraine. Their regiment from Krasnodar was ordered to Ukraine and they objected. They said that they don't have a foreign passport and thus can't cross Russian border legally
They said that crossing Russian border without a foreign passport (you need for travelling abroad) is illegal and constitutes a felony 322 УК РФ. Thus they can't go. What happened to them? They were all fired. Now they are suing their commandment for firing them illegally
That's very important case for understanding Russian state and well, almost any state in this world. When we are analysing its practices we often use imbecile, meaningless categories like "legal/illegal". Let me introduce much better term - "procedural"
That's an art from a pro-Russian, pro-Z telegram channel. Double crossed sign says "люди" (humans), implying Z-soldiers are not. That's how Russian propaganda portrays its own soldiers. Late Putinism has very morbid, necrophilic vibes
Some didn't believe it's actually pro-Russian Z art. That's understandable. Everything unusual is dismissed as false. People judge reliability of info they get according to their common sense which is nothing more than a set of (wrong) assumptions of how this world works
Here is a link to a Z-channel where you can find a lot of examples of late Putinist aesthetics t.me/russia_sof