Thread by @celinegounder

1/ America’s Omicron Wave Already Looks More Severe Than Europe’s
nymag.com/intelligencer/… by @dwallacewells

Omicron may not be as benign in the U.S.

2/ The American context may be different:

3/ coronavirus.health.ny.gov/daily-hospital…

As of January 7th in New York State:
- almost 12K hospitalized with COVID
- almost 1.5K in ICU with COVID

3/ Here's NYC's COVID data:
🟦 blue = hospitalizations
🟧 orange = ICU
🟥 red = deaths

4/

5/ In NYS, both hospital & ICU admissions are⬆️ing.

The Omicron hospitalization & ICU peak in NYS may be as high as it's been in peaks past.

6/ Here's data on COVID patients needing ICUs & ventilators in NYC:
🟦 = COVID patients in the hospital
🟪 = COVID patients in the ICU

7/ In NYC, there's been a 200-300% increase in COVID patients in the ICU since mid-December.

H+H = NYC's public hospital system
BE = Bellevue Hospital

8/ In NYC, there's been a 150-200% increase in COVID patients needing intubation & mechanical ventilation since mid-December.

H+H = NYC's public hospital system
BE = Bellevue Hospital

9/ While we may see cases shooting up more steeply RELATIVE to hospitalizations, ICU admissions, & mechanical ventilation,

those increases in hospitalizations, ICU admissions, & mechanical ventilation are much steeper here than they were in the UK/Europe.

10/ Why might the US experience with Omicron diverge from the European one?
- We have lower vaccination rates
- We've done a worse job at boosting our elderly & nursing home residents
- Residual Delta transmission

11/ Our social dynamics may play an important role here, too.

How is the U.S. different from the UK & Europe?
- No paid sick leave or family leave
- No universal healthcare
- Several hundred year history of racism & exploitation

That might have something to do with it, too.

12/ What's concerning is that NYC & NYS have much higher vaccination rates than the rest of the U.S.

This doesn't bode well for the rest of the country:

13/ Each wave tends to be dominated by transmission among younger people, later rippling out to older and older age groups.

So COVID cases may appear milder at first:

14/ It's not just in NYC that we're seeing concerning trends with Omicron:
nytimes.com/interactive/20…

Some simple math:
even if Omicron is 50% less deadly (say 50% lower case fatality rate)
if you have 2x as many cases because it's more infectious
you have the same # of deaths.

15/
🟨 = hospitalized
🟥 = in ICU
🟪 = ventilated

16/ COVID vaccines work... but all too many of our most vulnerable remain UNVACCINATED: