I'd argue that until we see how the idea of Orderly Transition — most especially the notion that climate action is a collective action problem, one that requires everyone at the negotiating table — is used to reinforce predatory delay, we don't see climate politics very clearly.
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When it comes to the planetary crisis, the public good depends on protecting people from inaction by shattering barriers to action, speed is justice, and scale is inclusion.
Most people are vastly more endangered by the worsening impacts of climate change, ecological collapse, systemic brittleness and societal instability than they are by the price tags of investments in action.
"Specifically, modern AI is better understood as AT — 'Artificial Time' that can be prosthetically attached to human minds. And highly capable computing systems are best understood as existing in superhistory rather than embodying superintelligence."
Being heavily invested, emotionally, in the idea that the planetary crisis means a total apocalypse — even the extinction of all humanity — is not only NOT a more realistic understanding of the world, it actually aids and abets those opposing rapid change. alexsteffen.substack.com/p/were-not-yet…
"Being too far ahead is the same thing as being wrong," and being recognized as right, at the right time — but only in hindsight — is often the same thing as being broke.
95% of the job is learning, researching, pondering, exploring, weighing out the possibilities, until we arrive at an informed intuition about where things are moving — the other 95% is articulating our intuitions in ways that make clear sense to those who did none of that work.
It is so much easier to simply toss out provocations.
It's like Tom Sawyer getting the other kids to pay to paint the fence.
Believing we can "fail" the climate "test" leads us to the error of believing in binary outcomes— that there's a point at which it will be "too late" to act and it's "game over"— when all outcomes are complex and transapocalyptic, and action is inevitable. alexsteffen.substack.com/p/an-orderly-t…
(It's every bit as serious as we suspect, it's just that most of us are working with outdated and semi-functional epistemological frameworks for what increasing seriousness means in this context.)