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Marcelo P. Lima Profile picture
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11 Jan, 4 tweets, 2 min read
Imagine if the entire state of California, rather than shutting down nuclear, built a few more plants. It would have enough power to end blackouts and desalinate water to end droughts.
Nuclear is the safest and cleanest form of energy
It’s also incredibly cheap. You get a huge bang for the buck with nuclear: non-polluting, safe, and energy dense (little material = a ton of energy):
So why don’t we have nuclear everywhere and much lower electricity bills? In part because our regulator makes that darn near impossible:

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More from @MarceloPLima

Marcelo P. Lima Profile picture
11 Jan
Our nuclear regulator:
- 2,868 employees
- $863m budget
- 47 years in operation
- LICENSE APPROVALS: ZERO
They approved a *design* for a small modular nuclear reactor, and bragged it "only" took 42 months!

It required a 12,000 page application and 2 MILLION pages of "additional documents."
My guess is this application cost *at least* $100 million to put together.

Is it any wonder there has been zero progress in nuclear over the last half century?
Read 10 tweets
Marcelo P. Lima Profile picture
10 Jan
Simple back of the envelope valuation on $SQ near-term:

Net revenues this year should be around $8-9 bn. By 2025 we should see ~$16.5 bn.

Operating margins at scale should approach 40%; let's assume 34%.

Diluted shares ~632m by then (incl. AfterPay dilution)

...
Business should still be growing fast at that point and will likely trade at a V/MA multiple, say 30x earnings.

EPS ~7 per share, $223 stock price, 16% IRR from here.

Note that if you go further, IRR tends to increase.

Second note: When Sarah Friar was CFO, guidance was...
...for EBITDA margins of around 38%.

Few remember this at this point and Amrita hasn't given similar guidance since, but given the business line SQ is in, this is not unreasonable (at all).

Op margin here benefits from addition of AfterPay gross profits (from the proxy).
Read 4 tweets
Marcelo P. Lima Profile picture
26 Oct 21
If this had happened 2,500 years ago the visualization would be a huge army waving an Apple flag storming the Facebook citadel, destroying its walls, pillaging the city... in just two quarters, Apple has gone from a non-entity to having targeting superior to Facebook's 🤯
Back in March, Zuck theorized that $FB might even end up in a stronger position after Apple's iOS 14 changes.
Clearly, he was wrong. Here's Wehner on the follow-up call last night:
Read 4 tweets
Marcelo P. Lima Profile picture
25 Sep 21
Cardano just announced a strategic partnership with DISH. I'm watching it but I can't figure out what this does for either company. Does anyone know?
Chris Ergen talks about identity and social security cards. I agree these should be on-chain. But where does DISH/Boost come into this?

Here's the announcement:
Around minute 24 of the 35-minute video they talk about security and protecting customers from hacks.

That's helpful. But why not announce the merits of the partnership upfront?
Read 4 tweets
Marcelo P. Lima Profile picture
25 Sep 21
This is the kind of thing that just kills a book for me: when the author can’t get basic things right, and I start having a book version of the Gell-Mann Amnesia Effect. tefter.io/bookmarks/4545…

For example, this is from @chafkin’s book The Contrarian:
“Facebook would develop a monopoly on social media and use that monopoly to crush competitors, charging progressively higher fees to advertisers while telling the world that this predatory behavior was a social good.”

1st: Facebook doesn’t charge higher fees; ad prices are set..
by auction, and prices fluctuate with supply of ad inventory (prices came down a lot with the introduction of Stories) and demand from advertisers.

Second, Facebook the idea that Facebook is a social media monopoly is risible, particularly with the recent explosion in
Read 6 tweets
Marcelo P. Lima Profile picture
25 Sep 21
In a recent pod, @balajis recommended the book “The Kill Chain,” about how America is behind China militarily.

Here’s a quote from the book:

“The problem is not that America is spending too little on defense. The problem is that America is playing a losing game.
Over many decades we have built our military around small numbers of large, expensive, exquisite, heavily manned, and hard-to-replace platforms that struggle to close the kill chain as one battle network.
China, meanwhile, has built large numbers of multi-million-dollar weapons to find and attack America's small numbers of exponentially more expensive
military platforms.”
Read 5 tweets

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