Michael Shellenberger Profile picture
Jan 13, 2022 21 tweets 5 min read Read on X
Rising violence & chaos are rapidly killing the hoary demand by progressive activists that we deny the reality of addiction/mental illness in causing homelessness

Nobody lives in open drug scene "homeless encampments" because they can't afford the rent

latimes.com/opinion/story/…
"When you see somebody passed out in their own vomit or covered in feces, and there are needles, that’s not a manifestation of poverty or a housing shortage. That’s mental illness & drug addiction, and it’s scary. People are suffering and the situation is dangerous for everyone."
As the illusion that homelessness is a problem of high rents evaporates, progressives are now retreating to the position that homelessness is "bidirectional."

Well of course it is. Everybody knows that. But it's addiction/mental illness that causes people to live on the street.
"A common assumption is that there is a unidirectional causal pathway between drug use and homelessness," writes @KellyMDoran in JAMA.

No, not it's not, which is why Doran presents precisely zero evidence for her claim.

jamanetwork.com/journals/jaman…
Nobody denies homelessness makes addiction worse — that's a straw man.

And it appears to serve the purpose of misdirecting attention from the fact that progressive academics/activists/journalists have denied that addiction *causes* homelessness for 40 years.
Doran & her coauthors reveal their ideological motivations in the very next sentence:

"This misconception places the blame on the individuals and away from the root structural contributors to homelessness as well as perpetuates stigma and points to the wrong solutions."
Having acknowledged that addiction causes homelessness, and then having constructed a straw man out of the idea that anyone denies homelessness making it worse, Doran et al go *assert* without evidence that "the root cause of homelessness... is lack of affordable housing"! 🤨 Image
All of this is progressive fancy-dancing to get around the fact that they have misled policymakers, journalists, and the public for 40 years in their active and willful denial of addiction & untreated mental illness as the primary cause of homelessness.
Why now? Because drug deaths reached 100,000 last year. Because obviously psychotic homeless people are more visible. And because people like @SoledadUrsua are calling bullshit on the Big Homelessness Lie

latimes.com/opinion/story/…
The addiction/mental illness homeless problem is all major American cities & worse on West Coast. What starts in the West moves East.

Miami has done comparatively well in reducing unsheltered homeless but I just saw dozens of homeless addicts, many psychotic, in Miami Beach ImageImage
We don't have a clear view. Homeless counts have always been inaccurate and many have not happened or happened unscientifically and in an unstandardized way over the last two years of the pandemic. But nobody denies the problem grew much worse everywhere.
And the real problem to addressing the problem isn't lack of precision about how many people are on the streets and how many in shelters, RVs, and encampments. The real problem is overcoming the longstanding denial of the nature of the problem so we can move on to fixing it.
America is more divided than ever but I have found significant bipartisan agreement among reasonable Ds & Rs on homelessness in part because everywhere in the civilized world the problem is addressed in the same basic way: Shelter First, Treatment First, Housing Earned.
The drug death and homelessness crisis result from the same things: untreated mental illness, open drug scenes/markets, and namby-pamby treatment of addicts

Just as addiction requires intervention, so too do our cities, our states, and our whole country

californiapeacecoalition.org
In addressing the existential threat to cities posed by out-of-control drug-induced homelessness chaos is creating, we have the opportunity to come together around a policy that is neither liberal nor conservative but rather wholly practical and humane.
The mechanics of Shelter First, Treatment First, and Housing Earned are simple. Universal congregate shelters. Psych/addiction evals & care. Centralized/efficient case management. Camping bans. Housing as a reward for sobriety. Mandatory treatment as alternative to jail.
What all of that requires is simply facing reality. Progressives are right that we need universal psychiatric care, treatment on demand, and universal shelter. Conservatives are right that we must enforce laws, have rewards/punishment to change behavior, and contain costs.
When traditional progressive and conservative demands on drugs and mental illness are combined they are right. When they exist in opposition to one another, they are wrong. I'm not advocating a compromise. I'm advocating a combination.
We have three choices: 1. Let addicts/mentally ill living on the street in increasingly dangerous ways. 2. Lock them all up without regard for their civil rights or our shared humanity. 3. Treat them using the same tools every civilized society in the world uses.
The only reason we're not doing #3 is because both Ds & Rs are stuck in outdated paradigms. Progressives dominate the issue, and are thus the main obstacle. But that creates an opportunity for moderate Ds & Rs to demand Shelter First, Treatment First, Housing Earned.
I should have said "just" because they can't afford the rent.

They can't afford the rent bc their addiction/mental illness leads them to not work and they are using the money they have to buy drugs

Many stop paying rent and live with family and friends until they are kicked out

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More from @shellenberger

Aug 7
O governo tirânico Lula-Moraes violou tantas leis que é difícil acompanhar. A deputada @damaresalves compilou uma lista de 15 leis que os tiranos violaram (abaixo). O Brasil é governado por criminosos. Image
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Read 35 tweets
Aug 4
🚨EXCLUSIVO: ARQUIVOS DE 8 DE JANEIRO

Novos arquivos vazados revelam que o Supremo Tribunal Federal brasileiro usou ilegalmente postagens de redes sociais para encarcerar manifestantes pró-Bolsonaro.

Em 8 de janeiro de 2023, centenas de apoiadores de @jairbolsonaro invadiram prédios governamentais em Brasília, em um episódio surpreendentemente semelhante ao 6 de janeiro nos EUA. Muitos eram idosos ou doentes e não cometeram atos de violência. Ainda assim, todos foram rotulados de “golpistas”, “terroristas” e “fascistas” pelo presidente do Brasil, @LulaOficial, e pelo ministro do Supremo Tribunal Federal, Alexandre de Moraes.

Agora, os ARQUIVOS DE 8 DE JANEIRO mostram que Moraes criou uma força-tarefa de inteligência secreta e ilegal que usou postagens de redes sociais para justificar a prisão de manifestantes não violentos.

Moraes e sua força-tarefa:
— operaram através de um grupo secreto de WhatsApp que criava “certidões” de inteligência ilegais;
— mantiveram manifestantes detidos enquanto realizavam varreduras em suas redes sociais;
— usaram o discurso online como base para a prisão “preventiva”;
— negaram aos advogados o acesso às provas;
— usaram ilegalmente um banco de dados biométrico para identificar manifestantes.

Esses arquivos revelam que os processos do 8 de janeiro foram politicamente motivados e envolveram amplos abusos de poder.

Moraes, servindo aos interesses de Lula, contornou a lei para efetivamente criminalizar o discurso político. Sua repressão judicial excessiva contra os manifestantes ajudou a legitimar a narrativa de que o 8 de janeiro foi uma “tentativa de golpe” coordenada – uma narrativa central para o processo em andamento do tribunal contra Bolsonaro.

A investigação ARQUIVOS DE 8 DE JANEIRO foi liderada por @david_agape_ e @EliVieiraJr e editada por @galexybrane.Image
CONTEXTO:

No mês passado, o Supremo Tribunal Federal (STF) ordenou que Bolsonaro usasse tornozeleira eletrônica e o proibiu de usar redes sociais e de se comunicar com outros investigados.

O Brasil agora enfrenta tarifas de 50% dos EUA, uma medida que entrará em vigor em 6 de agosto.

O uso “criativo” de seus poderes por Moraes — sancionado pelo Secretário de Estado dos EUA, @marcorubio, no âmbito da Lei Global Magnitsky por violações de direitos humanos — foi a base para:
— Tornar @jairbolsonaro inelegível por 8 anos
— Censura a jornalistas e tentativas de intimidação contra críticos como @elonmusk
— Prisões em massa e congelamento de bens de pessoas inocentes

Isso é lawfare em seu mais alto nível.

Os ARQUIVOS DE 8 DE JANEIRO vazados revelam novo material do arquivo “Vaza Toga”, exposto pela primeira vez por @ggreenwald e @FabioSerapiao.Image
“A PGR (Procuradoria-Geral da República) pediu a LP (liberdade provisória) deles, mas o ministro não quer soltar sem antes a gente ver nas redes se tem alguma coisa.”

Nas semanas seguintes ao 8 de janeiro, centenas de detidos permaneceram na prisão — mesmo quando a Procuradoria-Geral da República (PGR) recomendou formalmente sua soltura. Prazos legais foram ignorados, violando o Código de Processo Penal.

O que defensores públicos e advogados suspeitavam, mas ainda não podiam provar, agora pode ser confirmado. A verdadeira razão por trás dos atrasos era que Moraes estava esperando sua força-tarefa escanear as contas de redes sociais dos réus.

Em uma mensagem de WhatsApp de 13 de fevereiro de 2023, a leal chefe de gabinete de Moraes, Cristina Kusahara, reconheceu que a PGR havia recomendado a soltura de um grupo de detidos, mas Moraes “não quer soltar sem antes a gente ver nas redes se tem alguma coisa”.Image
Read 19 tweets
Aug 4
🚨EXCLUSIVE: JANUARY 8 FILES

New leaked files reveal that Brazil’s Supreme Court illegally used social media posts to incarcerate pro-Bolsonaro protesters.

On January 8, 2023, hundreds of supporters of former President @JairBolsonaro entered government buildings in Brasília, in an episode strikingly similar to January 6 in the US. Many were elderly or ill and committed no acts of violence. Yet all were labeled “coup plotters,” “terrorists,” and “fascists” by Brazil’s president @LulaOficial and Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes.

Now, the JANUARY 8 FILES show that Moraes created a secret and illegal intelligence task force that used social media posts to justify the imprisonment of nonviolent protesters.

Moraes and his task force:
— operated through a secret WhatsApp group that created illegal intelligence “reports”
— kept protestors detained while performing scans of their social media;
— used online speech as a basis for “preventative” imprisonment;
— denied lawyers access to evidence;
— illegally used a biometric database to identify protesters.

These files reveal that January 8 prosecutions were politically motivated and involved sweeping abuses of power.

Moraes, serving Lula’s interests, bypassed the law to effectively criminalize political speech. His overprosecution of protesters helped legitimize the narrative that January 8 was a coordinated “coup attempt” – a narrative central to the court’s ongoing prosecution of Bolsonaro.

The JANUARY 8 FILES investigation was led by @david_agape_ and @EliVieiraJr and edited by @galexybraneImage
CONTEXT:

Last Month, Brazil’s Supreme Court (STF) ordered Bolsonaro to wear an electronic ankle monitor and prohibited him from using social media and communicating with other individuals under investigation.

Brazil now faces 50% tariffs from the US, a measure set to go into effect on August 6.

Moraes’ “creative” use of his powers — sanctioned under the Global Magnitsky Act for human rights abuses by US Secretary of State @marcorubio — was the basis for:
— Banning @jairbolsonaro from elections for 8 years
— Censoring journalists & attempts at intimidation against critics like @elonmusk
— Mass arrests and asset freezes of innocent people

This is lawfare at its highest level.

The leaked JANUARY 8 FILES reveal new material from the “Vaza Toga” archive first exposed by @ggreenwald and @FabioSerapiao.Image
“The Prosecutor General’s Office asked for their release, but the Justice doesn’t want to let them go before we check their social media.”

In the weeks following January 8, hundreds of detainees remained in jail — even when the Prosecutor General’s Office (PGO) formally recommended their release. Legal deadlines were ignored, violating the Code of Criminal Procedure.

What public defenders and attorneys suspected, but could not yet prove, can now be confirmed. The real reason behind the delays was that Moraes was waiting for his task force to scan defendants’ social media accounts.

In a WhatsApp message on February 13, 2023, Moraes’ loyal chief of staff, Cristina Kusahara, acknowledged that the PGO had recommended the release of a group of detainees, but Moraes “doesn’t want to let them go before we can check their social media.”Image
Read 19 tweets
Jul 31
The newly declassified appendix to the Durham report is game-changing. It showed that the CIA believed Russian intelligence memos, which analyzed hacked emails and alleged a Clinton Plan to vilify Trump by linking him to Russia, were credible.

"The CIA prepared a written assessment of the authenticity and veracity of the above-mentioned intelligence. The CIA stated that it did not assess that the above [redacted] memoranda or [redacted] hacked U.S. communications, to be the product of Russian fabrications.”Image
In contrast to the CIA, the FBI rejected the intelligence and invented flimsy reasons not to trust it. The FBI's dismissive attitude also contrasts sharply with the FBI's credulousness toward any evidence that implictated the Trump campaign. Image
What’s more, FBI General Counsel James Baker, “unlike his colleagues, did not dismiss the credibility” of the Russian reports that Obama had pressured Attorney General Loretta Lynch to pressure the FBI to drop the investigation into Hillary Clinton's emails, particularly given Lynch's other behaviors.Image
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Read 8 tweets
Jul 30
Victory! President @realDonaldTrump Treasury Dept. has imposed sanctions on the Brazilian tyrant, Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes, who is preventing former President @jairbolsonaro from competing with President @LulaOficial in presidential elections next year. This is a major victory for free speech and democracy. Bravo!Image
For decades, the media have demanded financial sanctions against tyrants. But now that Trump is imposing sanctions against Left-wing tyranny, the media is crying about sovereignty. The hypocrisy is so thick you can cut it with a knife. Witness the propaganda:Image
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“Alexandre de Moraes has taken it upon himself to be judge and jury in an unlawful witch hunt against U.S. and Brazilian citizens and companies. De Moraes is responsible for an oppressive campaign of censorship, arbitrary detentions that violate human rights, and politicized prosecutions—including against former President Jair Bolsonaro.  Today’s action makes clear that Treasury will continue to hold accountable those who threaten U.S. interests and the freedoms of our citizens.” @SecScottBessent

home.treasury.gov/news/press-rel…Image
Read 4 tweets
Jul 28
Trump’s tariff push failed, the media said. But the new US-EU trade deal shows it worked spectacularly well. The US will get 10x more in revenue from tariffs on EU imports, and $600B more in direct investment from EU. Even Trump haters say it’s a big win for the US. Image
It was obvious back in April that the aggressive tariffs were a negotiating strategy. A bunch of supposedly smart people acted really dumb about this because they are market ideologues and/or TDS sufferers.
As we noted back in April, the tariffs are the messy birth of a new world order. 

Nice to see the @nytimes finally acknowledge this. The “framework seemed likely to permanently reshape the trading relationship between two of the world’s largest and most interconnected economies.”

Nothing succeeds like success.Image
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Read 9 tweets

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