"many" rate increases --> like 4 = fed funds rate at 1%

"many" more Covid deaths --> 100,000s+ in US
I would like to be very clear financial markets are not the real economy.

people like me on Wall Street who *advise* on macro conditions and the Fed are paid $1/2 million or more per year. senior people on the news are paid millions. the ones even higher up many millions.
It's a damn shame that many of the 1% and the 0.1% drive the headlines and run the country.

PS I have no problem with markets. They are good and essential. I have a problem with markets thinking and motives taking over economic policy.
same thing. she's for rate increases when unemployment is sub 4%. wow, what a shocker <not>

even if she meant six increases to 1.5% that's really low.
March's when most think the Fed will raise rates. maybe we will get 100,000 more deaths to go with every rate hike. all the news will talk about is inflation.
Our world is awful.

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More from @Claudia_Sahm

14 Jan
The best news for the country. The best.
The Fed is leading a sea change in economic policy.

To truly bring maximum employment on par with price stability it took a new team.

- 4 women, 3 men.
- First Black woman Governor.
- Two Black Governors.
- 3 non-economists, 4 economists.
Someday leading experts on fiscal policy will be as diverse and as committed to full employment.

Not today. That day is coming.

I will be there. You will too.

#KeepFighting
Read 4 tweets
14 Jan
❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️
❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️
I ***finally^^^ got to send a congratulations text I’ve been waiting over a year to send.
Read 4 tweets
14 Jan
Did my last inflation interview for the day at 7 pm … I have done several (understatement) this week. Every single interview I talk about Covid. Every single one. How can’t you?
I am not optimistic about the thing that matters — lives. ImageImage
Read 6 tweets
13 Jan
I am deeply dismayed at the 6th piece of advice @tylercowen gave to his multitude of followers today. marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolu…
I am thrilled for him that Tyler can manage his health conditions (physical and mental) without medication.

Many people cannot. Some of them look up to him and the last thing we need is someone with a big platform encouraging people to go it alone and not take meds.
I get it. I hated my meds when I went on in 2011. was ashamed I needed them. went off them in 2015 because I was doing so well. decision almost cost me big time in 2019 when I was getting crushed at work (good crush, but still). I was so mad I needed them.
Read 5 tweets
13 Jan
"Zients’s failures...are also the result of intentional actions to head off effective strategies. Zients instructed Republican Vermont Gov. Phil Scott, for example, against enacting a mask mandate, despite the policy’s high favorability and effectiveness." prospect.org/coronavirus/fi…
👇👇👇👇#ZientsMustGo
I have worked with Jeff and he seems like a nice guy. He is way over his head. Look, I could not lead the pandemic response. I sure as hell would listen to public health experts, especially ones who are calling for the White House to do more and be humane.
Read 5 tweets
13 Jan
“I don’t think two years ago we thought we’d still be having record cases,” Powell said Tuesday. “Getting past the pandemic is the single most important thing we can do.”

politico.com/newsletters/mo…

shout it from the rooftops. I am.
Preach.

PS Wilcox was my second Division Director. Smart man and knows real-world macro.
Yes. Good forecasts are *conditional.* What's the first thing that the Fed staff does before revising its forecast? Revisit the assumptions it starts with. Covid cases were ones in Tealbook (forecast summary for FOMC) when I was there. Sure they are now since March 2020 forecast.
Read 5 tweets

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