EXPONENTIAL THINKING
…and why it is so important to understand with pandemics…
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…and why it is so important to understand with pandemics…
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Some basic math on exponents:
y = x(r^n)
d = x(r^n)/c
If r is # of people infected per case (R0)
x is starting # of cases
n is number of exponential infection increases
1/c is fraction of cases leading to death
Then y is cases at time point n and d is deaths at time point n.
y = x(r^n)
d = x(r^n)/c
If r is # of people infected per case (R0)
x is starting # of cases
n is number of exponential infection increases
1/c is fraction of cases leading to death
Then y is cases at time point n and d is deaths at time point n.
People must understand that cases increasing exponentially more (e.g. if r is twice as high between omicron and delta / wildtype) means that half, quarter or even 1/10th lethality per case will yield more deaths than if this exponent isn’t in place.
The COVID pandemic has by and large been a product of a lack of understanding of exponential thinking.
These equations aren’t actually how R0 is modeled vs. infection — if you want the deeper math, see here:
en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_rep…
These equations aren’t actually how R0 is modeled vs. infection — if you want the deeper math, see here:
en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_rep…
Understanding the basics of exponential vs. linear / fractional thinking is so important to grasp! An x^n exponential relationship will quickly outpace an x/n relationship fraction.
This is why “omicron is mild” is a huge risk to population-level health!
This is why “omicron is mild” is a huge risk to population-level health!
Finally, and importantly, there are other metrics beyond death to consider including long term consequences of infection. Viral load and minimizing it matters. Stay safe!
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