$XBI
Sector is better capitalized than it’s ever been before (thx to fed) w/ assets that are more developed/mature going into a period where big pharma needs to do M&A bc of massive patent cliff. Biden is a lame duck who cant pass shit on drug pricing+Ds will lose majority in midterms

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More from @Amarillo_Slim1

17 Nov 21
Some thoughts on $STNE:
Lot of payments competition in Brazil and the company is getting hit with some macro headwinds as Selic rate skyrockets & hurts funding costs. APRU growth slowed a lot while funding costs grew 250% YoY.
Investors lost patience in Q2 bc there was an NPL problem due to a technical failure on the side of the Central Bank & in Q3 the company decided to not punish the base but rather swallow the funding costs from the explosive rise in the Selic rate.
This volatility will likely continue for some time due to competition. Rate hikes in Brazil likely priced in here. They need to pass on addtl costs slowly & will sacrifice profitability for continued growth. Investors w/ shorter time horizons will blow out (as is occurring today)
Read 7 tweets
29 Sep 20
$MSGS is the pure play sports company that was recently spun off from the entertainment business $MSGE of Madison Square Garden. I believe that $MSGS provides a lot of asymmetric upside from is current market cap of $3.6bn ($150/sh).
$MSGS owns marquee sports franchises, most notably the New York Knicks in the NBA and the New York Rangers in the NHL (among other assets). Covid has provided an opportunity to own these iconic trophy assets at a significant discount to value.
Forbes values the NY Knicks at $4.6 bn making it the most valuable NBA team. Similarly, the Rangers are the most valuable NHL team at $1.65 billion. In total, both teams are worth $6.25 billion equivalent to $260/share of $MSGS stock.
Read 15 tweets
21 Aug 20
Trump admin signalling US firms ability to use WeChat in China is HUGE for . The largest short term overhang on the stock since hosts communicate with players through WeChat. Explains the massive rally in Galaxy (27 HK) while US operators lagged calvinayre.com/2020/08/19/cas…
According to data released by Macau government on Thursday, visitor arrivals more than 3x from June so far. This is before visa allowances took effect. The increase will be further supported by upcoming visa allowances. The rest of mainland is due to open to Macau in early Sept.
From earnings call: "We continue to expect a faster read out and faster growth in the premium gaming segment, which benefits our portfolio of luxury integrated resorts. It has is setting us up nicely for the expected recovery in the second half of the year" (continued)
Read 4 tweets
19 Aug 20
Some thoughts on and : They should just merge. It would honestly solve all the problems related to ride-share and be massively accretive to the stock prices. Regulators would probably even approve the transaction because they are a small % of miles.
The big issue right now is the employee vs sole proprietor argument for drivers. California right now is at risk of losing if the appeal is not favorable. Let's assume loses I believe that it will end up playing out more favorably for them in the long-run.
In the scenario where loses the appeal & riders would no longer be able to use the application - drivers and consumers would revolt. The most likely outcome is that there is an opt-in where as a driver you need to choose between and in exchange for benefits.
Read 6 tweets
16 Jul 20
is on track to dominate CGRP migraine space. Few months after launch of their lead asset Nurtec ODT and they already have 50% market share continuing to take significant share from Allergan’s Ubrelvy and Amgen’s Aimovig.
Migraine is a top 10 debilitating global disorder and has a massive TAM. The market size for treatment is expected to reach $7bn by 2025 growing at a ~20% CAGR.
is the only fast acting oral solution that acts as both a treatment as well as prevention option. Half life is long so effects last a couple of days. Typically patients are migraine-free within a few minutes.
Read 11 tweets
13 Jul 20
I'm convinced is going to be a big winner over the next year. I bought heavily on the way down from $80 to $70/sh. And plan to hold for the longer-term. Great headline today as Guangdong lifts quarantine order for Macau. Guangdong = half of total Chinese visitation to Macau
is highly levered to Macau generating ~70% of their revenue from Macau and 100% of their operating income. Macau GGR numbers have been an absolute disaster for the past 3 months (down 95%+ 3 months in a row). Here are the govt numbers: dicj.gov.mo/web/en/informa…
is trading at 5x pro forma EBITDA - historical trough. Worse than '08 (when casino operators were dropping like flies due to real estate exposure) & worse than '15 (when Macau junket operators were under fire due to Chinese govt officials laundering money through casinos)
Read 8 tweets

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