Some think that this Fig. from UK group does not prove myocarditis post vax > myocarditis post infection because only 2.3 mil/3 mil people in the RED bar had infection prior to vax 👇 (ergo the pure myocarditis from infection risk)
For the sake of argument assume the worst case scenario that vax made them completely invulnerable to post infec. myocarditis and all the myocarditis being divided by 3 mil should be divided by 2.3 mil.
That is worst case scenario, and not likely true (almost certainly not)
It would increase the red bar 1.3x, which will still pale in comparison to the Blue bar for Moderna dose 2
Next, consider the biases present in the other direction
The red bar uses documented cases as the denominator NOT SEROPREVALANCE...
Some people did not even know they have covid and thus are omitted. This bias would shrink the red bar considerably
Consider also, that the entire plot is men <40
But the highest risk is men 16-24 not 38-40 for instance and that dilutes the signal
Fix this, it will look worse
Anyway you slice it is; it is obvious D2 moderna has higher risk
The two biggest failures in COVID19 policy were 1. Hubris to think humans were all powerful & could entirely change mother nature 2. Not subjecting our interventions to empirical testing, creating bitter tribal disputes, based on no credible data & never learning the answer 🧵🧵
Zero randomized trials on masking in school
Zero randomized trials on masking kids
Zero randomized trials on masking adults in high income nations
Zero randomized trials on masking anyone in cities
Zero randomized trials of school closure
Zero randomized trials business closures
Zero randomized trials of 3 vs 6 ft
Zero randomized trials of cohorting
Zero randomized trials of installing HEPA filters
Zero randomized trials of masking, post vaccine
Zero randomized trials testing alternative dosing strategies of vax (post phase 3)
Joe Rogan is right. At some ages, for Men, for some doses of specific mRNA shots, the risk of vaccine induced myocarditis exceeds the risk of myocarditis from infection. It was proven by the UK group 👇
We have to be honest about this fact to have productive conversations
All of health care policy falls like dominos when you accept this FACT about mother nature & omicron
🧵
Wearing an n95 is pointless
You won't do it the rest of your life
Exposure is inevitable
It merely delays the inevitable at personal inconvenience & anchors the mind in fear mode
Vaccine mandates are now intellectually bankrupt
All the boosters mandates in the world cannot halt spread
A key prerequisite to mandates is gone
They are a personal health choice (which BTW you should opt for, esp. if you are an older adult!) vinayprasadmdmph.substack.com/p/vaccine-effe…
COVID didn't do this; We did 1/4 1. No data supported day care workers wearing cloth masks w infants all day 2. Masking kids 2-4 was contradicted by WHO, but American Peds Assc. did it anyway 3. Keeping kids without playdates had no data 4. We closed playgrounds!
5. risk to kids was always much lower than risks we routinely tolerate 6. School closure did massive harm/ had no upside/ strangely occurred in liberal urban strongholds w strong unions & had nothing to do with virus factors
2/4
7. We rushed into boosting adolescents despite the resignations of top 2 FDA officials & dissent of Offit, man who makes vax 8. we imposed vax mandate for school & activities, under promise it would return life to normal 9. we then escalated demands to make kids wear n95s
3/4
👇👇x1000
A couple journals had a couple sessions, and one seminar at Hopkins, but besides that, universities largely abdicated the role as a forum for debate.
@sdbaral hosted one session, And there was an early angry one at Stanford.
But besides this, institutions nearly abdicated this responsibility entirely
I suspect they did so for the same reason so many people engage in preference qualification, or are scared to comment on issues. Which is that the culture among elites is so hostile to differences of opinion.
Universities probably worried that they would offend their donors.