Did interview with @AJEnglish on Russia-Nato tensions.
Two points:
1. Security issues over Ukraine are so deep for Moscow that whatever happens now, conflict between them will dominate European security for the next decade
2. Ukraine’s Nato membership is a red herring, but...
...Western support is not.
For the West (apart from the usual moral case), given its standoff with Moscow, a hostile to Russia Ukraine is a great strategic asset. Won't abandon it easily.
Hence the rub - the Kremlin would've probably let Kyiv stew in its own juice, because...
...it believes that Ukrainian statehood is deeply flawed but can't do so now because of increasing Western military support for Ukraine.
But the West (the US, Poland, UK etc) feels the need to boost their support to deter Russia. That's how things spiral towards a new crisis...

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