Clint Ehrlich Profile picture
Jan 16, 2022 16 tweets 5 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
The world is perched on the edge of an abyss.

We may soon see the worst combat in Europe since WW2 – killing thousands of people, and raising the likelihood of nuclear war.

It didn't have to be this way. A thread. 1/N Image
What's happening?

Russia has built up a potential invasion force on its border with Ukraine.

Recent photos and video show the Russian military pre-positioning attack helicopters and troop transports.

It looks a lot like final preparations for a cross-border assault.
Why is this happening? Russia has issued an ultimatum.

In the words of their Deputy Foreign Minister, Sergey Ryabkov:

"For us, it’s absolutely mandatory to make sure that Ukraine never — never ever — becomes a member of NATO." Image
The Russians insist that NATO expansion into Ukraine poses an existential risk to their security.

President Putin argues that NATO missiles in Ukraine could hit Moscow within 7 minutes – or even 5 minutes, once NATO has hypersonic weapons. Image
The U.S. and its European allies have refused to assuage that concern.

They insist that *someday* NATO will expand to include Ukraine – just as the alliance promised in 2008.

And so, from Russia's perspective, negotiations have hit a dead end. The time for words is ending.
This was all foreseen by the architect of U.S. grand strategy during the Cold War.

George Kennan was the diplomat who devised our plan to "contain" the Soviet Union.

After the USSR collapsed, he warned that expanding NATO would lead us towards war with Russia. Image
Kennan called the first round of NATO's eastward expansion in 1998 "a tragic mistake."

He said that our differences during the Cold War had been ideological, and that with the collapse of communism, it was no longer necessary to treat Russia as an enemy. Image
"It is the beginning of a new Cold War," Kennan predicted.

"Of course there is going to be a bad reaction from Russia, and then [the NATO expanders] will say that we always told you that is how the Russians are -- but this is just wrong.'' Image
Kennan went to his grave believing that his efforts to secure peace in Europe had been squandered by his successors.

"This has been my life, and it pains me to see it so screwed up in the end," he said. Image
The irony is that NATO would prefer *not* to add Ukraine.

The 2008 declaration was mostly symbolic, which is why Ukraine has never been presented with an actual timeline for joining the alliance.

But we're ready to let Ukraine burn for the *principle* that it *could* join.
The Biden administration is preparing to fight the Russians inside Ukraine, based on the template of fighting the Soviets in Afghanistan.

The plan is to train insurgents at camps inside NATO member states, then send them across the borden to Ukraine with NATO weapons. Image
The thesis of this strategy is that NATO can kill Russian soldiers with impunity.

That its member states can launch cross-border raids using NATO-trained, NATO-armed armed foreign fighters.

And that there is no real risk of Russia retaliating.
What if the Russians decide to launch their own cross-border insurgencies inside NATO member states?

What if Russian-trained, Russian-armed fighters start killing NATO forces in Slovenia, Slovakia, or Poland?

Would *we* do nothing then? Or would we retaliate...?
The problem with beginning a chain of escalation is that it's not clear where it ends.

Once our countries are caught in a cycle of tit-for-tat retaliation, we inch closer and closer to destroying the world.

To sacrificing every human life at the altar of abstract principles.
In 1962, Khrushchev wrote to Kennedy to defuse the Cuban Missile Crisis.

He said that our nations ought not pull on the ends of the rope in which the knot of war is tied, because there will come a time when neither of us can untie it.
Today, our leaders are busy pulling the ends of the rope.

The knot of war is growing tighter, and tighter.

I pray that the day will never come when it shall be cut.

But I am fearful.

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More from @ClintEhrlich

Dec 7
Yesterday, Google shocked the world with its new AI, "Gemini."

But it turns out the video was fake: the A.I. *cannot* do what Google showed.

It's my opinion, as a lawyer and computer scientist, that (1) Google lied and (2) it broke the law. 🧵 Image
There are three things that excited people about Google's viral Gemini demo:

1. The AI processed video, not just still images

2. The AI inferred context without being spoon-fed prompts

3. The AI seamlessly spoke and understood conversational audio

None of them are real.
Here's the truth about Gemini:

1. It processes still images, not video.

2. It requires detailed prompting.

3. It communicates best in writing, not audio.

You won't get any of this from the viral video, but it's spelled out in Google's documentation for developers. Image
Read 13 tweets
Sep 14
UPDATE: I've investigated further, and I've discovered serious problems with the alien mummies.

I believe the best available evidence points to an elaborate hoax.

Here's why I've become suspicious. 1/N 🧵
First, closer review of the scientific testimony presented to Peru's Congress reveals serious contradictions.

One of the major points of conflict is whether embryos were detected inside the alien eggs.

I haven't seen this contradiction discussed before. Image
Prof. Galetskiy was able to identify embryo-like structures inside the eggs.

He expressly started that brain and lung development was visible, equivalent to a human 8 weeks post-conception. Image
Read 11 tweets
Sep 13
Most people think the alien bodies shown to Mexico's Congress were fake.

But I have the reports from an international team of scientists.

You NEED to read their findings. They all say the aliens are real. 1/N 🧵 Image
The alien specimens we're discussing were found in a mine in Peru.

Radiocarbon dating indicates they are at least 1,000 years old.

But evidence presented to the Congress of Peru goes much further than that. Image
Sophisticated DNA testing was performed on the alien specimens by an international consortium.

The results were presented by geneticist Salvador Angel Romero, who was trained at UNAM – Mexico's equivalent of MIT. Image
Read 32 tweets
Sep 12
Let's honor the victims of 9/11 by telling the truth:

We were attacked by a terrorist organization that was WORKING FOR the U.S. government.

The proof is available online for anyone brave enough to read it. 1/N 🧵 Image
People want to believe that the DoD and CIA stopped supporting Bin Laden in the 1980s.

That simply isn't true.

Al Qaeda's #2 leader, Ayman al-Zawahiri, was working for the U.S. government *in 2001.* Image
It was part of an operation called Gladio B.

The original Operation Gladio recruited fascists to fight communism inside Europe.

Its successor, Gladio B, recruited Islamists to fight Russia in Central Asia. Image
Read 16 tweets
Aug 3
🚨 BOOM: David Grusch may have seen proof of an extra-terrestrial mothership commanding a tic-tac UAP.

It sounds crazy, but it's spelled out in declassified documents.

Buckle up.🧵1/N Image
In 2021, it appears Mr. Grusch was the Acting Chief of the Operations Center for the National Reconnaissance Office (NRO).

He led a team of 30, and he was responsible for the President's Daily Brief.

Any intel at NRO went through Mr. Grusch.
It's important to understand that NRO has the largest budget of any intelligence agency.

It has more resources than the NSA. More than the CIA.

It's the agency that creates and controls U.S. spy satellites and other top-secret sensor platforms. Image
Read 18 tweets
Aug 2
People think we can ignore evidence of UFOs, because the probability of aliens visiting Earth is low.

There's a giant hole in their reasoning!

I can prove it using probability theory, and I can show you how to explain the problem to others. 1/N 🧵 Image
Skeptics often tell you they are 99% sure aliens have not arrived on Earth.

In their mind, those are the same odds as reaching into a jar with 100 stones – 99 gray, 1 black – and randomly pulling out the only black stone.

But there's actually a HUGE difference! Image
We can believe that two things are both 1% probable, while being *more confident* in one of those estimates than the other.

In Bayesian probability theory, we call this the "strength" of the "prior."

("Prior" just means how confident we are "prior" to seeing new evidence.)
Read 11 tweets

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