Let's talk today about "burden of proof" re: claims, because I see much of my advocacy misconstrued.
Let's look at two claims:
* Online schooling is harmful to kids
* Online schooling is beneficial to kids
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The first claim requires evidence that, in terms of net outcomes, online schooling causes more harm than not online schooling.
Most of the evidence that I present is evidence *against this claim*, to counter the everpresent narrative of selected publications that support it.
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As well, I criticize the evidence itself as it doesn't exactly establish harm, causative harm, or in many cases, even compare online schooled kids to in person school kids.
Challenging the evidence is challenging **that claim**, that "online schooling is harmful to kids"
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On the other hand, proving the claim "online schooling is beneficial for kids" similarly requires evidence that separates online schooled kids from remote schooled kids, and evidence that shows net benefit.
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Many of the criticisms I have of the former claims evidence apply to the latter claims evidence.
For example, that suicide presentations declined in the first 15 months of the pandemic certainly leans in the direction of "less harm" but is not good evidence of less harm.
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I like to refer to evidence like this as "evidence you would see if there was less harm" but not "evidence for less harm". It's too confounded and has all of the same separation problems as the claims of harm.
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So remember, when I challenge evidence of an assertion, I am NOT claiming the opposite. That's not how logic or evidence or science works.
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Ie) if someone says the strange footprint is proof of an alien and therefore aliens exist amongst us, me criticizing the evidence is going against it as proof of that claim, not proof that aliens don't exist amongst us.
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It is so frustrating to have people take my threads and then (ignorantly, either innocently or not) loudly yell at me "oh so you're saying the kids are ok?!?"
By posting this thread, I will never reply to such a comment again.
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Hi all, I've deleted a series of tweets today because I worry about their impact. I will restate the thread with zero snark or attempts at wryness, and without anything OTHER than the point I want to get across.
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Why did I delete it?
I worried most about it being misused by those who **distrust the science of covid**.
Why did I tweet it?
Because I care about the science of this pandemic very much, & about the scientific process that has led us to amazing vaccines & approaches.
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What did I regret about the tweet?
I wrote it angrily, because media has picked up on an *unequivocal statement* abt school closures effects on mental health when there is a lot of nuance on the data, & the source was a *favourite source* of mine, the Ontario Science table.
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I am still digesting an interesting report, but it makes me wonder... this is beyond my expertise or region, but I found this graph shocking.
What if the narrative we are being told about the needs of in person schooling is being disproportionately told by one demographic?
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Note: I do not have the expertise or knowledge to vet this, and I do not understand all of the political and social contexts that the report discusses.
I believe ( and i could be wrong ) that this is produced by a teachers union and might have some biases in it. Though i do not understand the issue well at all.
Do we have a good summary of surveys of parents/family's preference broken down by race and income?
This is a meta-analysis of the longitudinal studies done during the first months of the pandemic. It is a *systematic* review in which they methodically went through ALL the research they could find.
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Here are the results they reported from their systematic review.
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My frustration is that this is how science is performed, yet major organizations that know better are simply selecting the points they want. I have no doubt that they would cite "evidence of an increase" but ignore the rest of this metaanalysis.
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I am more than happy to have so many people resonate with my messages and follow me (and I am SO GRATEFUL for followers!!!), but I cannot screen the # of followers I've gained in the past few days (6000ish). So, I'm going to play a game:
"Please unfollow me if..."
(A THREAD)
Please unfollow me if you wish to argue against Black Lives Mattering (literally the phrase too) or how we as Canadians live on the stolen and unceded land of Indigenous people, or you wish to argue against the phrase: "Trans women are women and trans men are men."
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Please unfollow me if you believe that "wokeism" is ruining science or whatever field you care about, and not the generations of lopsided power that has created significant systemic discrimination.
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/1 FWIW, "Deaths of despair" as used today is an awful, fake, heterogeneous category that stigmatizes and "others" death and ignores many other "deaths of despair"
/2 "Deaths of Despair" is a term invented by Princeton economist Anne Case / Angus Deaton that lumps deaths due to overdose, suicide, and alcohol consequences. Despite having different etiologies, courses, and timing of mortality.
Note: I respect both greatly & read their book.
/3 I get why someone would lump those three together, but a) that's not how mortality codes work and b) that's not how despair works. Mental health and psychological expertise was sorely missing.
While pediatric societies & "hospital organizations" did "science by press release," breathlessly discussing a correlation on a parent survey or releasing a statement about 1 month of admissions in May 2021, I knew we would get REAL DATA.
/2 This day has arrived. We have the incredible article by Ray et al, showing that during the first 15 months of the pandemic, youth ER presentations of self harm, overdose, and hospital admissions of both decreased by ~18% in Ontario.
/3 There is OTHER data out of Ontario showing that acute mental health ER and admission levels DID NOT INCREASE during the first 12 months of the pandemic. (broken down by age group)