Thread by @Wamagaisa

1. Opposition politicians who throw themselves at Emmerson Mnangagwa (ED) don’t know the man they are dealing with. He knows their desperation since no serious opposition leader will try so hard to please the ruling party. But ED is happy to exploit this desperation.

2. Just look at how he handled Khupe. She was handed the party when she was already a big cheerleader in POLAD, ED’s platform for opposition wannabes. ED made her feel like a buddy. She dreamt big, praising ED and talking dialogue incessantly despite lacking political capital.

3. ED knew she was of little value because she had performed dismally in 2018. She had no political capital to repair the legitimacy deficit. She was only useful as a nuisance to his great rival, Chamisa. But she was dispensable. Unfortunately she didn’t know what she meant to ED

4. As it happened, she spent too much time clapping for ED and ended up losing control of the party she had been given on a silver platter. She fell for Mwonzora’s scheming. She cried foul but nobody cared. Her newfound chum ED was nowhere to be found. She was on her own.

5. Isolated and realising she was headed for the political wilderness, she swallowed her pride and submitted to Mwonzora. Over a year later she is back in the political doldrums, even fearing for the seat she was unjustly given because she is now at the mercy of Mwonzora.

6. Her successor Mwonzora has taken the same route, trying desperately to please ED and pushing for so-called political dialogue. ED has granted him audience, which has given Mwonzora some confidence. But ED knows that just like Khupe, Mwonzora lacks political capital.

7. Political capital comes from the authority that is conferred by the people though an election. ED knows dialogue with Mwonzora is worthless without this authority. The by-election presents a chance for him to prove he has it. But incredibly Mwonzora did not want by-elections!

8. Why would a man who should be clamouring for elections to prove his political legitimacy be so averse to elections? Well, Mwonzora knows his weaknesses in the court of public opinion. Why subject yourself to humiliation when you are pretending to be the biggest opposition?

9. Mwonzora knows a drubbing in the by-elections will extinguish any hopes for the so-called dialogue with ED. He would rather dialogue using political capital that was stolen from Chamisa and the MDC Alliance than seek his own political capital.

10. With by-elections now a certainty, Mwonzora’s next strategy was to avoid Chamisa’s competition. The easiest way to win a race is to prevent your stiffest competition from competing. One way is to frustrate Chamisa into boycotting the by-elections.

11. What better way to do it than grab the name that Chamisa’s party is using, knowing the system will back you just like it has backed previous appropriations? This would frustrate Chamisa or at least leave his party nameless. He might also bank on the goodwill in the name.

12. This is why an election boycott by Chamisa would have been a boon for him. In the absence of a boycott, he will still try other means apart from the name grab to block competition. The MDC Alliance must be alive to these legal shenanigans at or after nomination day.

13. And of course they must be extra vigilant to make sure ZEC’s conducts a free & fair election. Mwonzora’s only chance is if the system rigs on his behalf. That is the big risk but even more reason for Chamisa and his team to implement a robust anti-rigging system.

14. Khupe thought ED might rescue her but he just strung her along before dumping her. Mwonzora probably thinks ED will rescue him but he is likely to suffer the same fate. ED’s prize is 2023 & he wants to fight a weakened Chamisa. That’s Mwonzora’s only value: to drain Chamisa.