1. Opposition politicians who throw themselves at Emmerson Mnangagwa (ED) don’t know the man they are dealing with. He knows their desperation since no serious opposition leader will try so hard to please the ruling party. But ED is happy to exploit this desperation.
2. Just look at how he handled Khupe. She was handed the party when she was already a big cheerleader in POLAD, ED’s platform for opposition wannabes. ED made her feel like a buddy. She dreamt big, praising ED and talking dialogue incessantly despite lacking political capital.
3. ED knew she was of little value because she had performed dismally in 2018. She had no political capital to repair the legitimacy deficit. She was only useful as a nuisance to his great rival, Chamisa. But she was dispensable. Unfortunately she didn’t know what she meant to ED
4. As it happened, she spent too much time clapping for ED and ended up losing control of the party she had been given on a silver platter. She fell for Mwonzora’s scheming. She cried foul but nobody cared. Her newfound chum ED was nowhere to be found. She was on her own.
5. Isolated and realising she was headed for the political wilderness, she swallowed her pride and submitted to Mwonzora. Over a year later she is back in the political doldrums, even fearing for the seat she was unjustly given because she is now at the mercy of Mwonzora.
6. Her successor Mwonzora has taken the same route, trying desperately to please ED and pushing for so-called political dialogue. ED has granted him audience, which has given Mwonzora some confidence. But ED knows that just like Khupe, Mwonzora lacks political capital.
7. Political capital comes from the authority that is conferred by the people though an election. ED knows dialogue with Mwonzora is worthless without this authority. The by-election presents a chance for him to prove he has it. But incredibly Mwonzora did not want by-elections!
8. Why would a man who should be clamouring for elections to prove his political legitimacy be so averse to elections? Well, Mwonzora knows his weaknesses in the court of public opinion. Why subject yourself to humiliation when you are pretending to be the biggest opposition?
9. Mwonzora knows a drubbing in the by-elections will extinguish any hopes for the so-called dialogue with ED. He would rather dialogue using political capital that was stolen from Chamisa and the MDC Alliance than seek his own political capital.
10. With by-elections now a certainty, Mwonzora’s next strategy was to avoid Chamisa’s competition. The easiest way to win a race is to prevent your stiffest competition from competing. One way is to frustrate Chamisa into boycotting the by-elections.
11. What better way to do it than grab the name that Chamisa’s party is using, knowing the system will back you just like it has backed previous appropriations? This would frustrate Chamisa or at least leave his party nameless. He might also bank on the goodwill in the name.
12. This is why an election boycott by Chamisa would have been a boon for him. In the absence of a boycott, he will still try other means apart from the name grab to block competition. The MDC Alliance must be alive to these legal shenanigans at or after nomination day.
13. And of course they must be extra vigilant to make sure ZEC’s conducts a free & fair election. Mwonzora’s only chance is if the system rigs on his behalf. That is the big risk but even more reason for Chamisa and his team to implement a robust anti-rigging system.
14. Khupe thought ED might rescue her but he just strung her along before dumping her. Mwonzora probably thinks ED will rescue him but he is likely to suffer the same fate. ED’s prize is 2023 & he wants to fight a weakened Chamisa. That’s Mwonzora’s only value: to drain Chamisa.

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More from @Wamagaisa

Jan 16,
1. Some people ask why Mwonzora was selective in recalling MDC Alliance MPs. Several reasons can be proffered including personal relationships which even at his most vindictive he cannot ignore. But the major reason was an attempt to use a strategy of divide and rule.
2. You may recall that the first purge in May 2020 affected 4 MPs most of whom held leadership roles in parliament: Tabitha Khumalo, Prosper Mutseyami & Lillian Timveos. SG Hwende’s sacking was personal after he defeated Mwonzora for the SG role in the MDC Alliance.
3. Sacking these senior MPs was meant to signal a threat to junior MPs. They were supposed to run for the hills. Some did but the majority held on. The strategy didn’t work very well and Mwonzora had to fire another batch and then yet another batch.
Read 9 tweets
Jan 16,
1. Let me use this opportunity to correct a common misconception among some MDC Alliance cadres. I have seen it too often that ignoring it is now tantamount to gross negligence. The misconception is that if the party changes its name it will put current MPs at risk of recall.
2. This is based on an innocent but mistaken view that MPs who have not been recalled are still MDC Alliance MPs. Legally, this is incorrect. As things stand the MDC Alliance has no MPs. The MDC Alliance lost them the moment Mwonzora’s party was given title to the recall the MPs.
3. The other set of MPs that were beyond Mwonzora’s reach, namely those from the PDP were also removed from Parliament, again through dubious means. They continue to be stifled through legal shenanigans. In any event a name change is not a change of party.
Read 5 tweets
Dec 30, 2021
1. In some countries, voter registration is tied to the political economy and this provides important incentives for people to register. You have to make the system make sense beyond voting. I will use this thread to explain how voter registration is incentivised in the UK.
2. In the UK, being on the voters roll is useful for when one is applying for a loan, mortgage or even a job. It’s an easy way for the bank or employer to verify your identity and it helps improve your credit score. That’s why I urge every Zimbabwean who settled here to register
3. It’s therefore in the best interests of every person to register on the voters’ roll. Of course, the process of registration is much easier. Once registered, the local authority will remind you each year in case you decide to change residence. I attach some advantages:
Read 4 tweets
Dec 30, 2021
1. It’s incredibly myopic to characterise @ZECzim’s poor voter registration record as a failure of the opposition & civic society when it’s a clear sign of systemic institutional failure. Just look at @ZACConline & its similarly poor record in fighting corruption.
2. So within days you have 2 critical national institutions reporting extremely poor performance of their constitutional mandates. This is a sign of chronic institutional weaknesses. You would think people would place responsibility on the institutions & their leadership.
3. But not in Zimbabwe. It’s yet another chance for naysayers to hammer the opposition as if it controls the pace of voter registration. The principal authors of ZEC’s failure Chigumba & all are given a free pass. In a normal country they would be resigning for failure of duty.
Read 6 tweets
Dec 30, 2021
1. Perhaps it’s something that comes with the professions, but confidentiality is the hallmark of any professional & advisory relationship. It’s a mark of good faith. The other party must be comfortable that what you discuss will never be revealed; that it will stay between you.
2. Even journalists whose main job it is to tell stories swear by their duty to protect the confidentiality of their sources. Recognising the importance of confidentiality in such relationships, the law has several rules that are designed to protect it. It’s given sacred status.
3. For lawyers, there’s attorney-client privilege. For journalists, there’s protection of confidentiality of journalists’ sources. Doctors & therapists are also bound by rules of patient confidentiality. It gives confidence & freedom to both parties in that relationship.
Read 6 tweets
Dec 29, 2021
1. Zimbabwe’s Harmonised Electoral System comprises 3 elections: Presidential, Parliamentary & Local Authority. A political party can compete in all or some of the 3. However, to govern effectively & unhindered, a party must win both Presidential & Parliamentary elections.
2. Winning the presidential election but losing the parliamentary race means the President will be at the mercy of Parliament which he needs to pass any laws. It creates an impasse & in the worst case scenario, the majority party might use its power to remove the President.
3. Mugabe faced this problem after the dubious 27 June run-off election in 2008 because his party had lost its parliamentary majority. He would have needed the MDCs to pass laws & govern effectively. It was a factor that helped push the logic of the Inclusive Government.
Read 13 tweets

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