David Roberts Profile picture
Jan 18 12 tweets 3 min read
The argument about "how far left" the Dem Party has moved conflates two separate questions. One is where the party is ideologically-- that is, what it would do if given the power to act freely. The other is about the party's political posture, ie, how hard it is willing to fight.
If you simply look at the policies that draw majority support among Democratic elected officials, there's no question that the party has moved left in the last several decades. Universal pre-K, CTC, massive climate industrial policy, etc. -- the BBB Act is incredibly ambitious.
It's the other question that draws most online heat: whether GOP opposition is a sharp limit on Dem ambition ... or whether Dems are in some sense complicit, giving up too easily, rolling over, not seriously committed to (&/or lying about) their stated policy goals.
This comes up most clearly in health care. During the Obama years, lots of folks argued: "single payer would be best, but it's a political nonstarter; something like Obamacare is the max possible." Others argued: "that's a lie; you prefer Obamacare because of $$$/corruption/etc."
Was something more/better than Obamacare possible? That depends on what you make of the counterfactual reality where Obama & Dem leaders pushed something else. You can argue it would have failed, leaving Dems w/ nothing. You can argue it could have passed. The thing is ...
... there is no way to settle an argument over a counterfactual. (This is why most political arguments never resolve.) You can construct scenarios all day long; there's no way to measure or rank them on plausibility. The truth is, no one knows. You can choose your own adventure.
So for any given thing the Dems do -- take your pick -- you can argue it's great, because it's better than nothing/what the GOP would do, or you can argue it's a sellout, because it's worse than something else they could have done in counterfactual world.
Those arguments feel like a Rorschach test to me -- people (including me, I'm sure) just find their priors in it. If you're prone to thinking Dems are sellouts, you'll see everything they do through that lens. Vice versa for Dem loyalists. It's identity vs. identity.
For my own part, I've spent decades now yelling at Dems to fight harder, to take conservative radicalization more seriously & take it on more directly. But I'm also cognizant of the political science that says -- contra popular myth -- that politicians generally try to do ...
... what they say they're going to do. Their public statements are generally a pretty good guide to their beliefs & intentions. I take Dems at their word that they have moved left on both social & economic policy. They want to do all kinds of great things.
It's just, the structural constraints of US politics -- *particularly on progressive reformers* -- are very real. GOP nihilism really is difficult to work around. No one has leverage over Manchin. SCOTUS is fucked beyond repair. So's the Senate. So's the information environment.
So Dems have moved left, but their structural disadvantages have only grown & they've completely lost control of the infosphere, which is ever more poisoned against them, so their leftward ideological movement is unlikely to produce much policy fruit. </fin>

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More from @drvolts

Jan 19
I find pieces like this utterly surreal. Thousands of words on Biden's approval rating & at no point is the tone, tenor, or character of the media's coverage even *mentioned*. Everyone pretends voters are responding directly to what Biden actually does. washingtonpost.com/politics/biden…
The US political media treats itself as a transparent eyeball, simply reporting facts, not as a volitional agent directing the public's attention & coloring its perceptions. It's so common I don't think people even notice any more. But it's bizarre when you think about it.
The average individual's experience of most issues of political significance is 100% mediated. Even if you disagree with me about the character of the mediation in Biden's case (relentlessly negative), it's wild just to ignore mediation entirely as a factor.
Read 5 tweets
Jan 17
The most striking thing about the entire pandemic, to me, is the raw, spontaneous, primal anger some people felt at being asked to make personal sacrifices in the name of the public good -- a kind of gut-level anti-solidarity.
Most arguments about masks & other restrictions had that vibe to me -- people groping to reverse-engineer epidemiological arguments to justify what was, in essence, a pre-verbal feeling: "how DARE you ask me to sacrifice for the collective. I will NOT & you can't make me."
This is the only way to make sense of the endless string of often self-contradictory arguments about alternative treatments, "herd immunity," transmissibility, private vs. gov't mandates, etc. etc.
Read 5 tweets
Jan 15
Great piece from @tomperriello draws on his experiences in other countries struggling in the wake of civil wars, schisms, etc. to argue that accountability is vital. Simply "moving on" is a recipe for trouble. crooked.com/articles/democ…
While I think Perriello is right, I'm somewhat fatalistic, because it's not just about Jan. 6 -- the US has been through *decades* shaped by the lies & lawbreaking of powerful white men who escaped without a hint of accountability. The horse is already out of the barn.
I guess Watergate is the last example of accountability I can think of. Iran-Contra, S&L scandal, theft of 2000 election, Iraq War, torture, financial collapse, voter suppression ... these are just the big ones. You could fill a book with GWB-era fuckery that was never punished.
Read 8 tweets
Jan 14
So, y'all, I have a theory about Joe Manchin. To be clear up front, this is just deduction & speculation, not any kind of inside info. But I think it explains some otherwise puzzling facts. A thread.
Recall that, early in Biden's term, the common take on Manchin was: "He'll kick up a fuss, demand a few symbolic concessions, but in the end, he'll vote w/ Dems." And that take held true through the Covid relief bill, even through early BBB negotiations, until late last year.
Around autumn of last year, the vibe shifted from "grumpy guy in the caboose begrudgingly going along for the ride" to "asshole who's determined to stop the train." People in talks w/ Manchin about the BBB's clean energy standard say he went from constructive to obstinate.
Read 14 tweets
Jan 13
This seems like an opportune moment to reiterate my view that much of the behavior of rich/famous/powerful people that we ordinary folk find mystifying is best explained by the composition of their epistemic environments: who's around them, who they listen to.
When you become a US senator, it is incredibly easy to slip into a bubble where you're only talking to other senators, lobbyists, rich people, & lifer pundits. They all flatter your ego. You feel like you're seeing into some special inner circle that knows the *real* truth.
Read 8 tweets
Jan 13
The real problem is not the horrible things conservatives do. The real problem is other people holding them accountable. washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/…
I remember a whole series of studies & surveys around 2015-16ish finding that the most predictive factor for intensity of Trump support was hostility toward out groups, primarily women, minorities, & immigrants. Trump's cult consists of *self-selected sexists & racists*.
Some links -- and a lot of other interesting stuff I'd forgotten -- in this dazed piece that I wrote shortly after Trump was elected. vox.com/policy-and-pol…
Read 4 tweets

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