Thread by @magi_jay

"Almost a cogent argument"

https://twitter.com/Wilson__Valdez/status/1483329858218377216

I do not know why some on the left continue to deny that there is climate change legislation in Congress right now. If you tell people it doesn't exist, they won't know to fight for it. This doesn't seem like behavior that reflects a true concern about climate change.

Here is the cold, hard political reality. There is massive support within the Dem party for BBB. 2 Senators, particularly Joe Manchin, are standing in the way. Dems, especially those in the House, need a win before the midterms. It is very possible that BBB will be chopped up.

So let me ask you this: if Dems feel some of BBB must pass before the midterms, which parts will they preserve? Both the safety net provisions & the climate change provisions are extremely worthy. But which set of provisions is *also* instrumentally valuable for the midterms?

This is the political reality. Americans care about climate change, but still view it as a distant threat. Meanwhile, healthcare, childcare, drug costs, etc are all policies w/ *immediate* concrete impact on Americans' lives. If Dems have to pick, they will pick social spending.

Or maybe Dems will still push through a combo of social spending & climate. But here's what people need to understand: building strong political support around climate is *hard*. And climate bills don't win elections. This is why people need to start fighting for *all* of BBB.

And if *you* are of the view that all the climate provisions in the bill should be preserved, you need to start advocating for those provisions or, at the very least, you need to stop lying to people. Biden & Pelosi & Schumer are trying to act on climate. They need public support

Many in the American public only vaguely care about climate change. That makes any legislation vulnerable. If progressives don't advocate for the bill, that renders legislation even more politically vulnerable. That's the political reality. Maybe advocates can turn it around.

Overall, at a *baseline*, there is basically no political incentive to fight climate change. Dems are fighting for it b/c it's the right thing to do. It's not gonna win the midterms. When progressives fail to advocate for policy they make this incentive structure worse.